Testing autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation: Asymptotic methods versus resampling techniques

Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation, which provide a mathematical tool to understand repeating patterns in time series data, are often used to facilitate the identification of model orders of time series models (e.g., moving average and autoregressive models). Asymptotic methods for testing autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation such as the 1/T approximation method and the Bartlett's formula method may fail in finite samples and are vulnerable to non-normality. Resampling techniques such as the moving block bootstrap and the surrogate data method are competitive alternatives. In this study, we use a Monte Carlo simulation study and a real data example to compare asymptotic methods with the aforementioned resampling techniques. For each resampling technique, we consider both the percentile method and the bias-corrected and accelerated method for interval construction. Simulation results show that the surrogate data method with percentile intervals yields better performance than the other methods. An R package pautocorr is used to carry out tests evaluated in this study.     

Polytomous multilevel testlet models for testlet‐based assessments with complex sampling designs

A pplications of standard item response theory models assume local independence of items and persons. This paper presents polytomous multilevel testlet models for dual dependence due to item and person clustering in testlet‐based assessments with clustered samples. Simulation and survey data were analysed with a multilevel partial credit testlet model. This model was compared with three alternative models – a testlet partial credit model (PCM), multilevel PCM, and PCM – in terms of model parameter estimation. The results indicated that the deviance information criterion was the fit index that always correctly identified the true multilevel testlet model based on the quantified evidence in model selection, while the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria could not identify the true model. In general, the estimation model and the magnitude of item and person clustering impacted the estimation accuracy of ability parameters, while only the estimation model and the magnitude of item clustering affected the item parameter estimation accuracy. Furthermore, ignoring item clustering effects produced higher total errors in item parameter estimates but did not have much impact on the accuracy of ability parameter estimates, while ignoring person clustering effects yielded higher total errors in ability parameter estimates but did not have much effect on the accuracy of item parameter estimates. When both clustering effects were ignored in the PCM, item and ability parameter estimation accuracy was reduced.     

Influence of properties of layered silicate minerals on adsorbed DNA surface affinity,self-assembly and nanopatterning

We report on the specific interaction between DNA and some mica-family minerals and other layered silicate structures. The interaction depends on mineral surface's crystallography, chemistry and potential. These properties are responsible for a remarkable variety of adsorption mechanisms and can be used to modulate surface self-assembly and nanopatterning of DNA. The controlled deposition of DNA onto non-conductive mineral regions with atomically flat boundaries has very attractive applications in nano-biotechnology (for example, microelectronics, microarrays and sensors). In addition, the extreme affinity discovered for some mineral surfaces, together with their ability to organize the DNA molecules, could be an indication of their catalytic potential. It may also have had relevance in the prebiotic environment, with important implications for the earth and life sciences.     

Linear-parabolic shift of initially sharp interface in AB diffusion couple above the ordering temperature

It is shown that initially sharp interface in AB diffusion couple, above the ordering temperature, can shift with anomalous kinetics, i.e. deviations from the parabolic growth kinetics are possible. The initial slopes of the shift versus time functions can be even unity for large diffusion asymmetry (the ratio of diffusion coefficients of the parent materials in orders of magnitude) and gradually decrease to 0.5 at larger distances (longer times). This is in accordance with earlier results obtained in phase separating systems. It is shown that from the results of simulations the crossover thickness, X*, between the linear and parabolic regimes can also be calculated, and the applicability of the linear–parabolic law is confirmed. Furthermore, it is illustrated that the crossover thickness depends exponentially on the diffusion asymmetry parameter, with the exponent close to the value obtained from analytical estimations.     

Skepticism and Epistemic Logic

This essay attempts to implement epistemic logic through a non-classical inference relation. Given that relation, an account of '(the individual) a knows that A' is constructed as an unfamiliar non-normal modal logic. One advantage to this approach is a new analysis of the skeptical argument.     

Optimal designs for the generalized partial credit model

Analysing ordinal data is becoming increasingly important in psychology, especially in the context of item response theory. The generalized partial credit model (GPCM) is probably the most widely used ordinal model and has found application in many large-scale educational assessment studies such as PISA. In the present paper, optimal test designs are investigated for estimating persons’ abilities with the GPCM for calibrated tests when item parameters are known from previous studies. We find that local optimality may be achieved by assigning non-zero probability only to the first and last categories independently of a person's ability. That is, when using such a design, the GPCM reduces to the dichotomous two-parameter logistic (2PL) model. Since locally optimal designs require the true ability to be known, we consider alternative Bayesian design criteria using weight distributions over the ability parameter space. For symmetric weight distributions, we derive necessary conditions for the optimal one-point design of two response categories to be Bayes optimal. Furthermore, we discuss examples of common symmetric weight distributions and investigate under what circumstances the necessary conditions are also sufficient. Since the 2PL model is a special case of the GPCM, all of these results hold for the 2PL model as well.     

Distribution of Cr atoms in a strained and strain-relaxed Fe89.15Cr10.75 alloy: a Mössbauer effect study

An Fe_89.15Cr_10.75 alloy in a heavily strained (by cold rolling) state and in strain-relaxed states was studied by means of conversion electrons Mössbauer spectroscopy. Analysis of the spectra in terms of a two-shell model revealed significant differences between the studied samples, particularly in values of the hyperfine field and the distribution of Cr atoms within the first two neighbour shells. The latter is quantified in terms of short-range order parameters.     

POLANYI ON TELEOLOGY: ARESPONSETO JOHN APCZYNSKI AND RICHARD GELWICK

Abstract. Michael Polanyi criticized the neo‐Darwinian synthesis on two grounds: that accidental hereditary changes bringing adaptive advantages cannot account for the rise of discontinuous new species, and that a Ideological ordering principle is needed to explain evolutionary advance. I commend the previous articles by John Apczynski and Richard Gelwick and also argue, more strongly than they, that Polanyi's critique of evolutionary theory is flawed. It relies on an inappropriate notion of progress and untenable analogies from the human process of scientific discovery and the fact that in physical systems minimal potential energy is most stable. Yet within a life of commitment to transcendent values humans can directly experience purpose and meaning, and in developing this notion Polanyi makes his greatest contribution to teleology.