The Mental Model Theory of Conditionals: A Reply to Guy Politzer

This paper replies to Politzer’s (2007) criticisms of the mental model theory of conditionals. It argues that the theory provides a correct account of negation of conditionals, that it does not provide a truth-functional account of their meaning, though it predicts that certain interpretations of conditionals yield acceptable versions of the ‘paradoxes’ of material implication, and that it postulates three main strategies for estimating the probabilities of conditionals.     

Heuristic and analytic processes in mental models for conditionals: An integrative developmental theory

This article presents a developmental dual-process theory of the understanding of conditionals that integrates Evans’ heuristic–analytic theory within the revised mental model theory of conditional proposed by Barrouillet, Gauffroy, and Lecas (2008). According to this theory, the interpretation of a conditional sentence is driven by unconscious and implicit heuristic processes that provide individuals with an initial representation that captures its meaning by representing the cases that make it true. This initial model can be enriched with additional models (a process named fleshing out within the mental model theory) through the intervention of conscious and demanding analytic processes. Being optional, these processes construct representations of cases that are only compatible with the conditional, leaving its truth-value indeterminate when they occur. Because heuristic processes are relatively immune to developmental changes, while analytic processes strongly develop with age, the initial model remains stable through development whereas the number of additional models that can be constructed increases steadily. Thus, the dual-process mental model theory predicts in which cases conditionals will be deemed true, indeterminate, or false and how these cases evolve with age. These predictions were verified in children, adolescents and adults who were asked to evaluate the truth value and the probability of several types of conditionals. The results reveal a variety of developmental trajectories in the way different conditionals are interpreted, which can all be accounted for by our revised mental model theory.     

A Unified Nonparametric IRT Model for <Emphasis Type="Italic">d</Emphasis>-Dimensional Psychological Test Data (<Emphasis Type="Italic">d</Emphasis>-ISOP)

The (univariate) isotonic psychometric (ISOP) model (Scheiblechner, 1995) is a nonparametric IRT model for dichotomous and polytomous (rating scale) psychological test data. A weak subject independence axiom W1 postulates that the subjects are ordered in the same way except for ties (i.e., similarly or isotonically) by all items of a psychological test. A weak item independence axiom W2 postulates that the order of the items is similar for all subjects. Local independence (LI or W3) is assumed in all models. With these axioms, sample-free unidimensional ordinal measurements of items and subjects become feasible. A cancellation axiom (Co) gives, as a result, the additive isotonic psychometric (ADISOP) model and interval scales for subjects and items, and an independence axiom (W4) gives the completely additive isotonic psychometric (CADISOP) model with an interval scale for the response variable (Scheiblechner, 1999). The d-ISOP, d-ADISOP, and d-CADISOP models are generalizations to d-dimensional dependent variables (e.g., speed and accuracy of response). The author would like to thank an Associate Editor and two anonymous referees and also Professor H.H. Schulze for their very valuable suggestions and corrections.     

A Bayesian Semiparametric Latent Variable Model for Mixed Responses

In this paper we introduce a latent variable model (LVM) for mixed ordinal and continuous responses, where covariate effects on the continuous latent variables are modelled through a flexible semiparametric Gaussian regression model. We extend existing LVMs with the usual linear covariate effects by including nonparametric components for nonlinear effects of continuous covariates and interactions with other covariates as well as spatial effects. Full Bayesian modelling is based on penalized spline and Markov random field priors and is performed by computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We apply our approach to a German social science survey which motivated our methodological development. We thank the editor and the referees for their constructive and helpful comments, leading to substantial improvements of a first version, and Sven Steinert for computational assistance. Partial financial support from the SFB 386 “Statistical Analysis of Discrete Structures” is also acknowledged.     

Rule transition on the balance scale task: a case study in belief change

For various domains in proportional reasoning cognitive development is characterized as a progression through a series of increasingly complex rules. A multiplicative relationship between two task features, such as weight and distance information of blocks placed at both sides of the fulcrum of a balance scale, appears difficult to discover. During development, children change their beliefs about the balance scale several times: from a focus on the weight dimension (Rule I) to occasionally considering the distance dimension (Rule II), guessing (Rule III), and applying multiplication (Rule IV; Siegler, 1981). Because of the detailed empirical findings the balance scale task has become a benchmark task for computational models of proportional reasoning. In this article, we present a large empirical study (N = 420) of which the findings provide a challenge for computational models. The effect of feedback and the effect of individually adapted training items on rule transition were tested for children using Rule I or Rule II. Presenting adapted training items initiates belief revision for Rule I but not for Rule II. The experience of making mistakes (by providing feedback) induces a change for both Rule I and Rule II. However, a delayed posttest shows that these changes are preserved after 2 weeks only for children using Rule I. We conclude that the transition from Rule I to Rule II differs from the transition from Rule II to a more complex rule. Concerning these empirical findings, we will review performance of computational models and the implications for a future belief revision model.

It is one Thing, to show a Man that he is in an Error, and another, to put him in possession of Truth. John Locke

     

Community types and mental health: a multilevel study of local environmental stress and coping

Research has found that neighborhood structural characteristics can influence residents' mental health. Few studies, however, have explored the proximal reasons behind such influences. This study investigates how different types of communities, in terms of environmental stressors (social and physical disorder and fear of crime) and social resources (informal ties and formal organizational participation), affect well-being, depression, and anxiety in adult residents. Data are from a survey of 412 residents nested in 50 street blocks. Block stressors and resources were cluster analyzed to identify six block types. After controlling for several individual- and block-level characteristics, results from multilevel models suggest that in communities facing relatively few stressors, higher levels of formal participation are associated with better mental health. Because high levels of formal participation were not found in communities with higher levels of stressors, the impact of participation in such contexts could not be examined. However, results suggest that in communities where stressors are more common, isolation from neighbors may have a protective effect on mental health.     

Normative Developmental Trajectories of Aggressive Behaviors in African American,American Indian,Asian American,Caucasian, and Hispanic Children and Early Adolescents

The current 5-year accelerated longitudinal investigation modeled the developmental trajectories of aggressive behaviors in 10,107 predominantly minority (>70%; African American, American Indian, Asian American, and Hispanic) children and early adolescents (Kindergarten through 8th grade, 49% female youth) from lower to lower-middle socioeconomic strata. Based on a two-part latent growth model, findings suggest that the probability and frequency of aggressive behavior use decreases slightly (linear) through the elementary school years and then increases as children move into middle school (quadratic). Though mean level differences were found across ethnic and racial groups, socioeconomic strata, and particularly by sex at initial status, rates of change over time across all groups were invariant. Findings suggest that potential socialization differences, if any, occur pre-Kindergarten in all groups.     

The boundaries between attachment and personality: Associations across three levels of the attachment network

This research examined the associations between measures of sociotropic and autonomous personality, romantic attachment anxiety and avoidance, and corresponding attachment ratings across a range of different specific relationships with people whom participants regularly interacted (including romantic partners, friends, family members, and colleagues). Analyses using hierarchical linear modeling showed that sociotropy and autonomy were directly associated with respective ratings of relationship-specific anxiety and avoidance within non-romantic relationships. In contrast, domain-specific romantic attachment predicted relationship-specific attachment with romantic (but not non-romantic) partners, and, as hypothesized, mediated the associations between sociotropy and autonomy and relationship-specific attachment within this domain. Implications for the operationalization of sociotropy and autonomy as broad-bandwidth (personality-level) measures that assess more global summaries of regularities in the same dual dimensions identified in the attachment literature (i.e., attachment anxiety and avoidance) are discussed.     

犯罪行为决策的理论与研究方法

犯罪行为是犯罪人决策的结果。犯罪行为决策研究旨在通过运用认知心理学的有关原理,说明犯罪行为实施之前的行为决策过程及影响因素,其成果能为国家制定刑事政策与犯罪预防政策等提供理论依据。犯罪行为决策的理论模型主要可分为犯罪理性模型、犯罪期望效用模型和犯罪前景理论模型。犯罪行为决策的研究方法主要采用心理物理法、过程追踪法、访谈法、投射测验法和犯罪统计法等。展望未来,应进一步探讨犯罪行为决策的理性与非理性问题,并加强对犯罪行为决策的验证性研究。     

Model theory of deduction: a unified computational approach

One of the most debated questions in psychology and cognitive science is the nature and the functioning of the mental processes involved in deductive reasoning. However, all existing theories refer to a specific deductive domain, like syllogistic, propositional or relational reasoning.
Our goal is to unify the main types of deductive reasoning into a single set of basic procedures. In particular, we bring together the microtheories developed from a mental models perspective in a single theory, for which we provide a formal foundation. We validate the theory through a computational model (UNICORE) which allows fine-grained predictions of subjects' performance in different reasoning domains.
The performance of the model is tested against the performance of experimental subjects—as reported in the relevant literature—in the three areas of syllogistic, relational and propositional reasoning. The computational model proves to be a satisfactory artificial subject, reproducing both correct and erroneous performance of the human subjects. Moreover, we introduce a developmental trend in the program, in order to simulate the performance of subjects of different ages, ranging from children (3–6) to adolescents (8–12) to adults (>21). The simulation model performs similarly to the subjects of different ages.
Our conclusion is that the validity of the mental model approach is confirmed for the deductive reasoning domain, and that it is possible to devise a unique mechanism able to deal with the specific subareas. The proposed computational model (UNICORE) represents such a unifying structure.