A general linear model for estimating effect size in the presence of publication bias

When the process of publication favors studies with smallp-values, and hence large effect estimates, combined estimates from many studies may be biased. This paper describes a model for estimation of effect size when there is selection based on one-tailedp-values. The model employs the method of maximum likelihood in the context of a mixed (fixed and random) effects general linear model for effect sizes. It offers a test for the presence of publication bias, and corrected estimates of the parameters of the linear model for effect magnitude. The model is illustrated using a well-known data set on the benefits of psychotherapy.Authors' note: The contributions of the authors are considered equal, and the order of authorship was chosen to be reverse-alphabetical.     

Depression and unemployment: Panel findings from the Epidemiologic Catchment Area study

Studies that have found an association between unemployment and psychological depression often fail to establish the direction of causal influence. Analyses of Epidemiologic Catchment Area panel data revealed that of employed respondents not diagnosed with major depression at first interview, those who became unemployed had over twice the risk of increased depressive symptoms and of becoming clinically depressed as those who continued employed. Although the increase in symptoms was statistically significant, the effect on clinical depression was not, possibly because of the low power of the test. The reverse causal path from clinical depression at Time 1 to becoming unemployed by Time 2 was not supported. The unemployment rate in the respondent's community at time of interview was not related directly to psychological depression but appeared associated indirectly with depression via its impact on the risk of becoming unemployed. Implications for policy and further research were discussed. The research described in this paper was supported by Grant #5 RO1 AA08379-02 from the National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. The authors appreciate the suggestions provided by members of the Consortium for Research Involving Stress Processes sponsored by the W. T. Grant Foundation and by two anonymous journal reviewers.     

Calibration of sensory and cognitive judgments: A single model for both

In a recent issue of this journal, Winman and Juslin (34 , 135–148, 1993) present a model of the calibration of subjective probability judgments for sensory discrimination tasks. They claim that the model predicts a pervasive underconfidence bias observed in such tasks, and present evidence from a training experiment that they interpret as supporting the notion that different models are needed to describe judgment of confidence in sensory and in cognitive tasks. The model is actually part of the more comprehensive decision variable partition model of subjective probability calibration that was originally proposed in Ferrell and McGoey (Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26 , 32–53, 1980). The characteristics of the model are described and it is demonstrated that the model does not predict underconfidence, that it is fully compatible with the overconfidence frequently found in calibration studies with cognitive tasks, and that it well represents experimental results from such studies. It is concluded that only a single model is needed for both types of task.     

Dynamic equilibrium on a cyclic-interval schedule with a ramp

Five human subjects pressed a panel for money on a cyclic-interval schedule that arranged recurring periods of linearly increasing reinforcement rates (ramps). Response rate versus time functions for all subjects showed recurring periods of linearly increasing response rates. The responding of four of the five subjects was in phase with the reinforcement input. The remaining subject showed a two-minute phase shift. These results suggest that organisms may act like simple amplifiers on cyclic-interval schedules, that is, the form of the input signal is not changed by the organism, but is returned with amplification. By analogy with the variable-interval case, the controlling variable on cyclic-interval schedules with rate ramps may be the constant reinforcement acceleration that is arranged by the schedule.     

Multivariate stochastic processes compatible with “aspect” models of similarity and choice

Various recent works have developed feature or aspect models of similarity and preference. These models are more concerned with the fine detail of the judgment process than were prior models, but nevertheless they have not in general developed an underlying stochastic process compatible with the assumed structure. In this paper, we show that a particular class of multivariate stochastic processes, namely those associated with the Marshall-Olkin multivariate exponential distribution, generates several of these models. In particular, such stochastic processes (appropriately interpreted) yield Tversky's elimination by aspects model, Edgell and Geisler's (normal) additive random aspects model, and Shepard and Arabie's additive cluster model.This work was supported by Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada Grant A8124 to A.A.J. Marley.     

Tests for stability in linear structural equation systems

Interpretations regarding the effects of exogenous and endogenous variables on endogenous variables in linear structural equation systems depend upon the convergence of a matrix power series. Convergence depends upon the eigenvalues of the structural coefficient matrix. The test for convergence developed by Jöreskog and Sörbom is shown to be only sufficient, not necessary and sufficient.     

A note on the investigation of local and global identifiability

In general, nonlinear models such as those commonly employed for the analysis of covariance structures, are not globally identifiable. Any investigation of local identifiability must either yield a mapping of identifiability onto the entire parameter space, which will rarely be feasible in any applications of interest, or confine itself to the neighbourhood of such points of special interest as the maximum likelihood point.The author would like to thank J. Jack McArdle and Colin Fraser for their comments on this paper.     

The use of latent class models for assessing prerequisite relations and transference among traits

This paper presents a strategy for pairwise assessment which may be used to evaluate the nature of both prerequisite and transference relations existing among a set of traits. This strategy is appropriate for use both within a confirmatory context, in which an attempt is made to establish the validity of some specified set of relations among traits, as well as within an exploratory context, in which a search is made for unconjectured prerequisite and transference relations existing between pairs of traits. Both uses of this strategy are based on a variety of latent class models which are representative of various possible relational states existing between pairs of traits. Thus, the nature of trait relations may be investigated through the use of statistical assessments of both absolute and relative fit attained by these models. An application is presented to exemplify how this strategy may be used within the exploratory context.The author is obliged to Clifford Clogg, C. Mitchell, Dayton, and William Schafer for helpful comments made regarding a previous draft of this paper as well as to Mary Papageorgiou who provided access to the data which was considered in this study.