CONTINGENCY IN PHYSICS AND COSMOLOGY: A CRITIQUE OF THE THEOLOGY OF WOLFHART PANNENBERG

Abstract. The concept of contingency serves to bridge the doctrine of creation and natural science in Wolfhart Pannenberg's theology. My paper first analyzes the relation of creatio ex nihilo and creatio continua. Next I suggest three categories of contingency: global, local, and nomological. Under each category I assess Pannenberg's use of physics, cosmology, and philosophy of science. Although I agree with Pannenberg's emphasis on continuous creation and on the role of science in renewing the doctrine of creation, I argue for a shift in the discussion from Pannenberg's topics to others, such as the anthropic principle, quantum physics, and thermodynamics.     

Exploratory analysis of contingency tables by loglinear formulation and generalizations of correspondence analysis

Goodman's (1979, 1981, 1985) loglinear formulation for bi-way contingency tables is extended to tables with or without missing cells and is used for exploratory purposes. A similar formulation is done for three-way tables and generalizations of correspondence analysis are deduced. A generalized version of Goodman's algorithm, based on Newton's elementary unidimensional method is used to estimate the scores in all cases.This research was partially supported by National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Grant No. A8724. The author is grateful to the reviewers and the editor for helpful comments.     

A note on latent trait theory and Bowker's test

Bowker's test for marginal equality in contingency tables provides a familiar chi-square test to determine whether the marginal distributions are the same across two or more factors or occasions. In this note it is shown how latent trait theory provides a theoretical framework for the development and application of this test.The research reported here was supported by a grant to the senior author from the National Institute on Aging (AG03164).     

CONTINGENCY MANAGEMENT INTERVENTIONS: EFFECTS ON TREATMENT OUTCOME DURING METHADONE DETOXIFICATION

We examined the effectiveness of a contingency management program in preventing relapse to illicit opiate use and increasing treatment retention during outpatient methadone detoxification treatment. Twenty male opiate addicts were randomly assigned to an experimental or control group. Following a 3-week methadone stabilization period, men in both groups received identical gradual methadone dose reductions during Weeks 4 through 9 and were maintained on placebo during Weeks 10 through 13. Beginning in Week 4, control patients received $5.00 for providing a specimen twice weekly. Experimental patients received $10.00 and a take home methadone dose for each opiate-free urine specimen but forfeited the incentives and participated in more intensive clinic procedures when specimens were opiate positive. The contingency management procedure slowed the rate of relapse to illicit opiate use. Experimental patients provided significantly more opiate-free urines during the methadone dose reduction in Weeks 4 through 9 than control patients, although the difference between groups was no longer significant during placebo administration in Weeks 10 through 13. In addition, the contingency management program improved treatment retention and reduced symptom complaints during the detoxification. The usefulness and limitations of contingency management procedures for outpatient methadone detoxification are discussed.     

Loglinear Rasch model tests

Existing statistical tests for the fit of the Rasch model have been criticized, because they are only sensitive to specific violations of its assumptions. Contingency table methods using loglinear models have been used to test various psychometric models. In this paper, the assumptions of the Rasch model are discussed and the Rasch model is reformulated as a quasi-independence model. The model is a quasi-loglinear model for the incomplete subgroup × score × item 1 × item 2 × ... × itemk contingency table. Using ordinary contingency table methods the Rasch model can be tested generally or against less restrictive quasi-loglinear models to investigate specific violations of its assumptions.     

COLLEGE STUDENTS AS CONTINGENCY MANAGERS FOR ADOLESCENTS IN A PROGRAM TO DEVELOP READING SKILLS1

Behavior-modification procedures and an individualized tutorial program were used to remediate reading skill deficits in seventh-grade adolescent subjects. Forty-two college students were trained as reading tutors and contingency managers to use reading diagnostic and remedial materials, and to develop contracts and reinforce positive verbal responses toward reading. Significantly greater increases in reading scores of experimental groups, compared to control groups, substantial improvement in target behaviors, and significant changes in verbalizations toward reading were observed after 10 weeks of treatment. Six-month followup studies showed that all groups had consolidated their gains and that grade scores continued to improve. The improvement of the experimental subjects remained significantly ahead of the control subjects.     

A TOKEN REINFORCEMENT PROGRAM IN A PUBLIC JUNIOR-HIGH SCHOOL1

In recent years, the technology of contingency management has been shown to be of increasing value in regular classrooms and public-school systems with both groups and individual pupils (Ayllon and Roberts, Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 1974, 7 , 71–76; Glynn and Thomas, Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 1974, 7 , 299–306; Lovitt and Curtiss, Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 1969, 2 , 49–53; Lovitt and Smith, Exceptional Children, 1974, 40 , 357–358; Medland and Stachnik, Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 1972, 5 , 45–51). In addition, established procedures are being systematically replicated across grade levels and differing subject-matter areas. A series of studies initiated by O'Leary and Becker (Exceptional Children, 1967, 33 , 637–642) form the basis for the present investigation. The token reinforcement program described by O'Leary and Becker (Exceptional Children, 1967, 33 , 637–642) was managed by the teacher of an adjustment class and involved 9-yr-old children described as emotionally disturbed. An elaborate replication of the 1967 O'Leary and Becker study conducted by O'Leary, Becker, Evans, and Saudargas (Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 1969, 2 , 3–31) with a grade-two class introduced several variables to examine their separate effects. The authors specified their treatment levels as baseline, classroom rules, educational structure, teacher praise and ignore, token I, withdrawal, token II, and follow-up. The present research modified the general design of O'Leary et al., (Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 1969, 2 , 3–31) to study how to maintain treatment effects. In the modification, rules were eliminated as a treatment variable because they are frequently associated with aversive practices in the school system, and it was deemed desirable to have mainly a positive orientation. A second difference was that the present subjects were grade-nine pupils functioning in the regular public-school system. The six students were older (average age = 16.2) and well behind their peers in achievement. They were considered behavior problems and as potential dropouts by teachers and counsellors. They were not considered to be emotionally disturbed. Finally, procedures designed to maintain behavior change generated by the token system were added. The operant level of unacceptable classroom behavior was obtained for six students receiving an individualized program of instruction in mathematics and science in a nonacademic grade-nine class in a public junior secondary school. Initially, two conditions (educational structure and praising appropriate behavior while ignoring inappropriate behavior) were introduced successively. Both procedures reduced inappropriate behavior slightly. When a token system, using backup reinforcers readily available in the school, was introduced in conjunction with the initial two conditions, inappropriate responses declined dramatically in all subjects. Withdrawal of the token program for a three-week period, leaving educational structure and praising and ignoring in effect, increased inappropriate behavior in five of the six subjects. The token program was then re-introduced in conjunction with contingency contracts. The result was a decline of inappropriate behavior below the mean of the first token condition for all subjects. Tokens were thinned and finally removed toward the end of this condition, leaving teacher praise and attention and the contract system in effect. Data obtained during a four-week followup indicated that the low level of inappropriate behavior was maintained in all subjects. This extension of the O'Leary et al., (Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 1969, 2 , 3–31) program, designed and implemented by the regular teacher, demonstrates that these procedures may be highly effective within the constraints found in an ordinary classroom in the junior secondary school.     

The effects of a cooperation contingency on behavior in a continuous three-person environment

Five groups of three subjects resided for 10 or 15 days within a continuously programmed environment. Subjects followed a programmatic arrangement of required and optional private and social activities that determined the individual and group baseline behaviors into which experimental operations were introduced and withdrawn. A cooperation condition was in effect when all three subjects were required to select simultaneous access to a group area before it became available for use. A noncooperation condition was in effect when access to a group area could be selected by individual subjects, without regard to the other subjects' selections. For all groups, the effects of these two conditions on individual and group behaviors were investigated in reversal designs where several successive days occurred under each condition. Groups 1, 4, and 5 had the noncooperation condition interposed between cooperation conditions. Groups 2 and 3 had the cooperation condition interposed between noncooperation conditions. Durations of triadic activities, per cent of time in triadic activities, intercom use, and intersubject program synchronization were greater during cooperation conditions than during noncooperation conditions. These data show that a cooperation contingency within the behavioral program affected both social behavior and the collateral individual behavior necessary to execute the cooperation response.     

THE GOOD TOOTHBRUSHING GAME: A SCHOOL-BASED DENTAL HYGIENE PROGRAM FOR INCREASING THE TOOTHBRUSHING EFFECTIVENESS OF CHILDREN

There has been a serious lack of experimentally verified, effective dental hygiene programs in the schools. In and of themselves, the instruction-alone programs which comprise children's dental education do not produce proper toothbrushing skills. In the present study, a school-based contingency dental hygiene program designed to increase the effectiveness of children's toothbrushing skills at home was implemented with grade one and two classes. Each class was divided into teams and participated in the “Good Toothbrushing Game.” Each day four children from each team had the cleanliness of their teeth assessed according to the Simplified Oral Hygiene Index (Greene & Vermillion, 1964). The team with the lowest mean oral hygiene score was declared the daily winner. Winning teams received stickers and had their names posted. A multiple baseline across classrooms single-subject group design (Hersen & Barlow, 1976, pp. 228–229) established that the good toothbrushing game greatly increased the effectiveness of children's oral hygiene skills. The treatment terminal level for the grade one scores was 2.0 as compared to a baseline terminal level of 5.0, and for the grade two's was 2.3 compared to 5.7 at the end of baseline. A 9-mo follow-up indicated that these results were maintained. The data strongly suggest that proper implementation of behavioral principles is essential to the success of oral hygiene programs.     

Contingency and stimulus change in chained schedules of reinforcement

Higher rates of pecking were maintained by pigeons in the middle component of three-component chained fixed-interval schedules than in that component of corresponding multiple schedules (two extinction components followed by a fixed-interval component). This rate difference did not occur in equivalent tandem and mixed schedules, in which a single stimulus was correlated with the three components. The higher rates in components of chained schedules demonstrate a reinforcing effect of the stimulus correlated with the next component; the acquired functions of this stimulus make the vocabulary of conditioned reinforcement appropriate. Problems in defining conditioned reinforcement arise not from difficulties in demonstrating reinforcing effects but from disagreements about which experimental operations allow such reinforcing effects to be called conditioned.