An evaluation of multi‐criteria methods in integrated assessment of climate policy

Those who conduct integrated assessments (IAs) are aware of the need to explicitly consider multiple criteria and uncertainties when evaluating policies for preventing global warming. MCDM methods are potentially useful for understanding tradeoffs and evaluating risks associated with climate policy alternatives. A difficulty facing potential MCDM users is the wide range of different techniques that have been proposed, each with distinct advantages. Methods differ in terms of validity, ease of use, and appropriateness to the problem. Alternative methods also can yield strikingly different rankings of alternatives. A workshop was held in which climate change experts and policy makers evaluated the usefulness of MCDM for IA. Participants applied several methods in the context of a hypothetical greenhouse gas policy decision. Methods compared include value and utility functions, goal programming, ELECTRE, fuzzy sets, stochastic dominance, min max regret, and several weight selection methods. Ranges, rather than point estimates, were provided for some questions to incorporate imprecision regarding weights. Additionally, several visualization methods for both deterministic and uncertain cases were used and evaluated. Analysis of method results and participant feedback through questionnaires and discussion provide the basis for conclusions regarding the use of MCDM methods for climate change policy and IA analyses. Hypotheses are examined concerning predictive and convergent validity of methods, existence of splitting bias among experts, perceived ability of methods to aid decision‐making, and whether expressing imprecision can change ranking results. Because participants gained from viewing a problem from several perspectives and results from different methods often significantly differed, it appears worthwhile to apply several MCDM methods to increase user confidence and insight. The participants themselves recommended such multimethod approaches for policymaking. Yet they preferred the freedom of unaided decision‐making most of all, challenging the MCDM community to create transparent methods that permit maximum user control. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

心理学视野下的社会变迁研究：研究设计与分析方法

近年来,社会变迁导致的文化、心理与行为变化及其相互建构已经成为心理学的研究热点。社会变迁研究通常涉及和变迁相关的时间效应、时代效应以及和变迁无关的年龄效应。在考察变迁趋势及其影响因素时,常用的研究设计有跨时间比较、跨代际比较、跨地区比较(历史重构)等方法;常用的分析方法有传统的相关和回归分析和现代的时间序列分析(比如交叉滞后相关和格兰杰因果检验)等。由于每一种设计都有其优点和不足,在具体研究中,研究者要根据研究的问题和可操作性选择合适的方法;如果可能,最好同时采用多种方法,以寻求基于不同方法的聚合证据。     

Theory change in immunology part II: The clonal selection theory

This two-part article examines the competition between the clonal selection theory and the instructive theory of the immune response from 1957–1967. In Part I the concept of a temporally extended theory is introduced, which requires attention to the hitherto largely ignored issue of theory individuation. Factors which influence the acceptability of such an extended theory at different temporal points are also embedded in a Bayesian framework, which is shown to provide a rational account of belief change in science. In Part II these factors, as elaborated in the Bayesian framework, are applied to the case of the success of the clonal selection theory and the failure of the instructive theory.     

Capturing system level activities and impacts of mental health consumer-run organizations

Since the 1970s mental health consumer-run organizations have come to offer not only mutual support, but they have also adopted agendas for broader social change. Despite an awareness of the need for system level efforts that create supportive environments for their members, there has been limited research demonstrating how their system level activities can be documented or their impacts evaluated. The purpose of this paper is to feature a method of evaluating systems change activities and impacts. The paper is based on a longitudinal study evaluating four mental health consumer-run organizations in Ontario, Canada. The study tracked system level activities and impacts using both qualitative and quantitative methodologies. The article begins by describing the development and implementation of these methods. Next it offers a critical analysis of the methods used. It concludes by reflecting on three lessons learned about capturing system level activities and impacts of mental health consumer-run organizations.     

The cognitive structure of surprise: looking for basic principles

We develop a conceptual and formal clarification of notion of surprise as a belief-based phenomenon by exploring a rich typology. Each kind of surprise is associated with a particular phase of cognitive processing and involves particular kinds of epistemic representations (representations and expectations under scrutiny, implicit beliefs, presuppositions). We define two main kinds of surprise: mismatch-based surprise and astonishment. In the central part of the paper we suggest how a formal model of surprise can be integrated with a formal model of belief change. We investigate the role of surprise in triggering the process of belief reconsideration. There are a number of models of surprise developed in the psychology of emotion. We provide several comparisons of our approach with those models.

I like you,I like you not: Understanding the formation of context-dependent automatic attitudes

Previous research has shown that automatic evaluations can be highly context dependent. Expanding on past research demonstrating context effects for existing attitudes toward familiar objects, the present research examined basic principles that guide the formation of context-dependent versus context-independent automatic attitudes. Results from four experiments showed that: (a) newly formed attitudes generalised to novel contexts when prior experiences with the attitude object were evaluatively homogeneous; (b) when prior experiences were evaluatively heterogeneous, automatic evaluations became context sensitive, such that they reflected the contingency between the valence of prior experiences and the context in which these experiences occurred; and (c) when prior experiences were evaluatively heterogeneous across different contexts, novel contexts elicited automatic evaluations that reflected the valence of first experiences with the attitude object. Implications for research on automatic evaluation and attitude change are discussed.     

Longitudinal associations between people's cessation-related experiences and their satisfaction with cessation

We sought to determine whether different social, psychological, emotional, and physiological experiences associated with quitting smoking related to people's satisfaction with cessation systematically, and whether the strength of the relations changes at different points during the cessation process and for different people (e.g., optimists). Using data from smokers enrolled in a cessation program, we used mixed models to assess the average longitudinal relation between people's experiences and satisfaction measured at seven time points and whether the relations were moderated by key variables. Eight of nine experiences were related to people's satisfaction (ps < 0.05) and the models accounted for 39–44% of the within-person variance in satisfaction. Current smoking behavior was more strongly related to people's satisfaction during their early efforts to quit, whereas some experiences (e.g., feedback from others) had a stronger relation with satisfaction during people's later efforts to quit or maintain abstinence (ps < 0.05). Individual differences in optimism and prior cessation experience moderated some of the relations (ps < 0.05). The findings mark the first evidence of factors that might influence how people determine their satisfaction with smoking cessation. The implications for tailoring interventions and potentially increasing the likelihood that people maintain abstinence are discussed.     

论《周易参同契》的“变形而仙”说

魏伯阳所撰《周易参同契》是运用《周易》原理来支撑金丹之道的滥觞。它以《周易》的变易原理作为道教神仙存在学说的理论基础,通过论说"物性可变",进而说明人也可变。人通过服炼金丹能够变化自己的身体而为神仙之体,即"変形而仙",从而可以超越生死。"变形而仙"思想并非《参同契》独创,而是有所本的。这一思想对后世道教产生了巨大而深远的影响,如葛洪、陶弘景、沈汾等人皆明显继承了《参同契》的"变形而仙"说。     

Not all cultural values are created equal: Cultural change in China reexamined through Google books

Given its major transformations in recent decades, China has figured prominently in research on cultural change. Previous research converges in showing a general trend towards individualism in contemporary China while noting that rising individualism tends to coexist with enduring collectivism. To further understand this, we tested whether perceived traditional importance of cultural values would modulate the trajectory of cultural change reflected in word usage frequencies in published books. We re‐analysed Google's Chinese corpus since 1980 based on a broad sample of words associated with individualism–collectivism. We replicated the pattern of rising individualism and declining collectivism among words of modest and low perceived traditional importance. Most important, however, collectivistic words of high perceived traditional importance increased in usage frequencies with time, thus departing from the general trend towards individualism. Overall, our research underscores the role of core culture in cultural maintenance during times of rapid cultural change.     

Attention as a cueing function during kindergarten children's dimensional change task performance

The purpose of this experiment is to test whether shift flexibility in kindergarten children is a joint function of rule‐usage and inhibition of attention. Sixty‐six children were given either a distraction or facilitation condition in a computerized version of the dimensional change card sort task. In the distraction condition, the background of the post‐shift matching stimulus was inconsistent with the relevant matching dimension. In the facilitation condition, the background of the post‐shift matching stimulus was consistent with the relevant matching dimension. Results revealed that children made few errors in the standard version of the shift task, thereby supporting Cognitive complexity and control theory's contention that 5‐year‐old children shift easily across dimensions due to their use of higher‐order setting rules to solve contradictions. The proportion of errors increased however in the distraction condition suggesting that attention to the background interfered with children's ability to shift between dimensions. Therefore, these data provide evidence that refocusing attention to dimensions along with rule‐use processes affect shift flexibility and argue for the inclusion of both factors into theoretical accounts of shift performance. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.