Eliciting Subjective Probabilities through Pair‐wise Comparisons

We propose and test a novel approach for eliciting subjective joint probabilities. In the proposed approach, judges compare pairs of possible outcomes and identify which of the two is more likely and by how much. These pair‐wise comparative judgments create a matrix of ratio judgments from which the target probabilities are extracted using the rows' (or columns') geometric means. In Study 1, subjects provided direct assessments of the likelihood of joint events (e.g., sunny days and stock market gains) and also made pair‐wise comparisons of the same joint events. Subjects in Study 2 learnt the distribution of hypothetical events pairs and provided direct and ratio estimates. In both studies, the ratio estimates were significantly more accurate than the direct estimates. The results suggest that it is possible to elicit probabilistic estimates without explictly asking for probabilities and that the pair‐wise approach is a candidate for complementing or replacing traditional elicitation approaches. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A taxonomic study of aggression in institutionalized delinquents

The taxonomy of aggressive behavior has been studied by many social scientists. In the present study this topic is approached empirically. A group of convicts were asked to quantify pairwise dissimilarity among aggressive social situations. The data obtained were processed by Multidimensional Scaling. The results show the necessity of taking into account 3 dimensions (justifiability, instrumentality and degree of involvement with the victim) in distinguishing among aggressive episodes. This finding is discussed in terms of cultural differences, and the usefulness of the perception of aggressive episodes as a basis for a taxonomic system is proposed.     

First demonstration of effective spatial training for near transfer to spatial performance and far transfer to a range of mathematics skills at 8 years

There is evidence that spatial thinking is malleable, and that spatial and mathematical skills are associated (Mix et al. [2016] Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 145, 1206; Mix et al. [2017] Journal of Cognition and Development, 18, 465; Uttal et al. [2013] Psychological Bulletin, 139, 352). However, few studies have investigated transfer of spatial training gains to mathematics outcomes in children, and no known studies have compared different modes of spatial instruction (explicit vs. implicit instruction). Based on a sample of 250 participants, this study compared the effectiveness of explicit and implicit spatial instruction in eliciting near transfer (to the specific spatial skills trained), intermediate transfer (to untrained spatial skills) and far transfer (to mathematics domains) at age 8. Spatial scaling and mental rotation skills were chosen as training targets as previous studies have found, and proposed explanations for, associations between these skills and mathematics in children of this age (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 145, 2016 and 1206). In this study, spatial training led to near, intermediate and far transfer of gains. Mental visualization and proportional reasoning were proposed to explain far transfer from mental rotation and spatial scaling skills respectively. For most outcomes, except for geometry, there was no difference in the effectiveness of implicit (practice with feedback) compared to explicit instruction (instructional videos). From a theoretical perspective, the study identified a specific causal effect of spatial skills on mathematics skills in children. Practically, the results also highlight the potential of instructional videos as a method of introducing spatial thinking into the classroom.     

D-optimal design for the Rasch counts model with multiple binary predictors

In this paper we derive optimal designs for the Rasch Poisson counts model and its extended version of the (generalized) negative binomial counts model incorporating several binary predictors for the difficulty parameter. To efficiently estimate the regression coefficients of the predictors, locally D-optimal designs are developed. After an introduction to the Rasch Poisson counts model and its extension, we will specify these models as particular generalized linear models. Based on this embedding, optimal designs for both models including several binary explanatory variables will be presented. Therefore, we will derive conditions on the effect sizes for certain designs to be locally D-optimal. Finally, it is pointed out that the results derived for the Rasch Poisson models can be applied for more general Poisson regression models which should receive more attention in future psychological research.     

The underlying structure of the Beck Depression Inventory II: A multidimensional scaling approach

The purpose of the present study was to confirm Beck’s six symptom categorization of depression through the most recent version of Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II) by employing a confirmatory multidimensional scaling (MDS). This analysis indicates two independent dimensions in the BDI-II. The disturbance domain dimension relates to the domains wherein the disturbances occur, and validates Beck’s six symptom categorization dividing the items into disturbances in basic need-satisfaction, energy regulation, focused attention, regulation of emotion, motivation, and cognitive distortion in self-evaluation. The level of arousal dimension relates to how the disturbances are expressed, namely in an under-active, regular, or over-active manifestation. The MDS solution suggests 18 (6 × 3) symptom areas of depression, and may serve as a guide for constructing additional items.     

Choice in a successive-encounters procedure and hyperbolic decay of reinforcement

Pigeons responded in a successive-encounters procedure that consisted of a search state, a choice state, and a handling state. The search state was either a fixed-interval or mixed-interval schedule presented on the center key of a three-key chamber. Upon completion of the search state, the choice state was presented, in which the center key was off and the two side keys were lit. A pigeon could either accept a delay followed by food (by pecking the right key) or reject this option and return to the search state (by pecking the left key). During the choice state, a red right key represented the long alternative (a long handling delay followed by food), and a green right key represented the short alternative (a short handling delay followed by food). In some conditions, both the short and long alternatives were fixed-time schedules, and in other conditions both were mixed-time schedules. Contrary to the predictions of both optimal foraging theory and delay-reduction theory, the percentage of trials on which pigeons accepted the long alternative depended on whether the search and handling schedules were fixed or mixed. They were more likely to accept the long alternative when the search states were fixed-interval rather than mixed-interval schedules, and more likely to reject the long alternative when the handling states were fixed-time rather than mixed-time schedules. This pattern of results was in qualitative agreement with the predictions of the hyperbolic-decay model, which states that the value of a reinforcer is inversely related to the delay between a choice response and reinforcer delivery.     

具有创造成就的科学家关于创造的概念结构

运用Q分类及多尺度分析方法,研究具有创造成就的科学家关于创造成就的概念结构。被试是30名来自物理、化学、数学、地学和生命科学领域的具有创造成就的科学家。研究发现,具有创造成就的科学家关于创造成就的概念结构由“成就取向/内心体验取向”、“主动进取/踏实肯干”两个维度构成;取得科学创造成就的重要特征是“成就取向”和“主动进取”。作者进一步讨论了主动进取对于取得创造性成就的意义     

A convex approach for multicriteria decision making in hierarchical systems

In this paper hierarchical multicriteria optimization problems are addressed in a convex programming framework. It is assumed that the criteria are aggregated into a nonlinear function, which renders the problem nonseparable, in general. The projection of the problem onto the criteria space is used to obtain an equivalent separable problem, solved through a relaxation procedure implemented on basis of a multilevel structure. At the upper level of the structure, the decision making process involves the solution of a multicriteria problem formulated in the criteria space. The solution encountered at the upper level originates a lower level parametric optimization problem with separable structure that can be treated by standard coordination-decomposition techniques. The convergence of the overall procedure is ensured. The paper includes an application of the approach proposed for the control of dynamic systems with linear quadratic structure. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

眼见为实?视觉搜索的证实反应与策略反应

为检验视觉搜索加工过程中目标驱动与刺激驱动的制约关系,本研究采用视觉搜索范式,操作靶目标颜色与样例颜色是否匹配,以及搜索刺激集的样例颜色比例两个搜索难度变量;并根据靶目标兴趣区注视点情况,把搜索策略划分为证实反应与策略反应。结果表明,在搜索难度增加时,证实反应的比例下降,而策略反应的比例上升,这表明搜索策略的转换优化了注意选择功能。     

Applications of the MACBETH Approach in the Framework of an Additive Aggregation Model

In measurement theory terminology, MACBETH is an interactive approach for mapping into a real scale the various degrees to which the elements of a finite set possess a property P. The originality of MACBETH's questioning procedure is the possibility of establishing a constructive path towards cardinal measurement in both quantitative and substantive meaningful terms, avoiding the operational problems recognized as a weakness of other procedures. The use of the notion of semantic absolute judgements plays a key role here and the simplicity, interactivity and constructiveness of our approach insert it in the modern paradigms of decision aid. This article illustrates the usefulness of MACBETH as a tool to facilitate decision support, by describing its application in two real public decision situations where we acted as facilitators. Although the cases correspond to quite different decision contexts and problematics and our interventions have addressed diverse issues, they have in common the fact that we conducted both evaluation processes in the framework of an additive multicriteria aggregation procedure. In the first case MACBETH has been used to support the construction of (local) cardinal value functions, while the second illustrates how our approach can serve as a weighting procedure to determine the scaling constants of an additive aggregation model. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.