Social evaluation research: the evaluation of two police patrolling strategies

In most social evaluation research it is difficult to achieve the degree of experimental rigor possible in an applied behavioral study. This study illustrates how the evaluation researcher can increase experimental rigor in the analysis of social interventions. In the first evaluation, a variation of the time-series design that offered maximum experimental control given the limitations of the situation, was employed to evaluate the effects of a specialized home-burglary police patrol. This design revealed that no effects could be attributed to the patrol. In the second evaluation, a multiple baseline-like design was possible in determining the effects of a police walking patrol. This design revealed that the patrol produced an increase in crime reporting but not in arrests. Social interventions often occur in a manner that allows varying degrees of experimental analysis. The evaluation researcher must attain optimal experimental analysis given the limitations of each social intervention.     

A two‐part mixed effects model for cigarette purchase task data

The Cigarette Purchase Task is a behavioral economic assessment tool designed to measure the relative reinforcing efficacy of cigarette smoking across different prices. An exponential demand equation has become a standard model for analyzing purchase task data, but its utility is compromised by its inability to accommodate values of zero consumption. We propose a two‐part mixed effects model that keeps the same exponential demand equation for modeling nonzero consumption values, while providing a logistic regression for the binary outcome of zero versus nonzero consumption. Therefore, the proposed model can accommodate zero consumption values and retain the features of the exponential demand equation at the same time. As a byproduct, the logistic regression component of the proposed model provides a new demand index, the “derived breakpoint”, for the price above which a subject is more likely to be abstinent than to be smoking. We apply the proposed model to data collected at baseline from college students (N = 1,217) enrolled in a randomized clinical trial utilizing financial incentives to motivate tobacco cessation. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the proposed model provides better fits than an existing model. We note that the proposed methodology is applicable to other purchase task data, for example, drugs of abuse.     

Evaluation of multiple schedules with naturally occurring and therapist‐arranged discriminative stimuli following functional communication training

Many studies have shown that (a) functional communication training (FCT) is effective for reducing problem behavior, and (b) multiple schedules can facilitate reinforcer schedule thinning during FCT. Most studies tha have used multiple schedules with FCT have included therapist‐arranged stimuli (e.g., colored cards) as the discriminative stimuli (S^Ds), but recently, researchers have evaluated similar multiple‐schedule training procedures with naturally occurring S^Ds (e.g., overt therapist behavior). The purposes of the current study were to compare the effects of arranged and naturally occurring S^Ds directly during (a) acquisition of discriminated functional communication responses (FCRs) and (b) generalization of discriminated FCRs when we introduced the multiple schedules in novel contexts in which the naturally occurring stimuli were either relatively easy or difficult to discriminate. Results showed that (a) 2 of 3 participants acquired discriminated responding of the FCR more rapidly with arranged than with naturally occurring stimuli, (b) 2 of 3 participants showed resurgence of problem behavior , and (c) 2 of 3 participants showed greater generalization of discriminated responding to novel contexts with arranged stimuli than with naturally occurring stimuli. We discuss these results relative to the conditions under which naturally occurring and arranged S^Ds may promote rapid and generalized treatment gains.     

Regression Mixture Models: Does Modeling the Covariance Between Independent Variables and Latent Classes Improve the Results?

Regression mixture models are increasingly used as an exploratory approach to identify heterogeneity in the effects of a predictor on an outcome. In this simulation study, we tested the effects of violating an implicit assumption often made in these models; that is, independent variables in the model are not directly related to latent classes. Results indicate that the major risk of failing to model the relationship between predictor and latent class was an increase in the probability of selecting additional latent classes and biased class proportions. In addition, we tested whether regression mixture models can detect a piecewise relationship between a predictor and outcome. Results suggest that these models are able to detect piecewise relations but only when the relationship between the latent class and the predictor is included in model estimation. We illustrate the implications of making this assumption through a reanalysis of applied data examining heterogeneity in the effects of family resources on academic achievement. We compare previous results (which assumed no relation between independent variables and latent class) to the model where this assumption is lifted. Implications and analytic suggestions for conducting regression mixture based on these findings are noted.     

A Comparative Investigation of Confidence Intervals for IndependentVariables in Linear Regression

In linear regression, the most appropriate standardized effect size for individual independent variables having an arbitrary metric remains open to debate, despite researchers typically reporting a standardized regression coefficient. Alternative standardized measures include the semipartial correlation, the improvement in the squared multiple correlation, and the squared partial correlation. No arguments based on either theoretical or statistical grounds for preferring one of these standardized measures have been mounted in the literature. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, the performance of interval estimators for these effect-size measures was compared in a 5-way factorial design. Formal statistical design methods assessed both the accuracy and robustness of the four interval estimators. The coverage probability of a large-sample confidence interval for the semipartial correlation coefficient derived from Aloe and Becker was highly accurate and robust in 98% of instances. It was better in small samples than the Yuan-Chan large-sample confidence interval for a standardized regression coefficient. It was also consistently better than both a bootstrap confidence interval for the improvement in the squared multiple correlation and a noncentral interval for the squared partial correlation.     

Dealing with Multiple Solutions in Structural Vector Autoregressive Models

Structural vector autoregressive models (VARs) hold great potential for psychological science, particularly for time series data analysis. They capture the magnitude, direction of influence, and temporal (lagged and contemporaneous) nature of relations among variables. Unified structural equation modeling (uSEM) is an optimal structural VAR instantiation, according to large-scale simulation studies, and it is implemented within an SEM framework. However, little is known about the uniqueness of uSEM results. Thus, the goal of this study was to investigate whether multiple solutions result from uSEM analysis and, if so, to demonstrate ways to select an optimal solution. This was accomplished with two simulated data sets, an empirical data set concerning children's dyadic play, and modifications to the group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) program, which implements uSEMs with group- and individual-level relations in a data-driven manner. Results revealed multiple solutions when there were large contemporaneous relations among variables. Results also verified several ways to select the correct solution when the complete solution set was generated, such as the use of cross-validation, maximum standardized residuals, and information criteria. This work has immediate and direct implications for the analysis of time series data and for the inferences drawn from those data concerning human behavior.     

Health‐adjusted neuropsychological test norms based on 463 older Swedish car drivers

There is a need for improved normative information in particular for older persons. The present study provides neuropsychological test norms on seven cognitive tests used in a sample representing the general older driving population, when uncontrolled and controlled for physical health. A group of 463 healthy Swedish car drivers, aged 65 to 84 years, participated in a medical and neuropsychological examination. The latter included tests of visual scanning, mental shifting, visual spatial function, memory, reaction time, selective attention, and simultaneous capacity. Hierarchical regression analyses demonstrated that, when uncontrolled for health, old age was associated with significant impairment on all seven tests. Education was associated with a significant advantage for all tests except most reaction time subtests. Women outperformed men on selective attention. Controlling for health did not consistently change the associations with education, but generally weakened those with age, indicating rises in normative scores of up to 0.36 SD (residual). In terms of variance explained, impaired health predicted on average 2.5%, age 2.9%, education 2.1% and gender 0.1%. It was concluded (1) that individual regression‐based predictions of expected values have the advantage of allowing control for the impact of health on normative scores in addition to the adjustment for various demographic and performance‐related variables and (2) that health‐adjusted norms have the potential to classify functional status more accurately, to the extent that these norms diverge from norms uncontrolled for physical health.     

Verbalization of Decision Strategies in Multiple‐Cue Probabilistic Inference

In multiple‐cue probabilistic inference, people choose between alternatives based on several cues, each of which is differentially associated with an alternative's overall value. Various strategies have been proposed for probabilistic inference (e.g., weighted additive, tally, and take‐the‐best). These strategies differ in how many cue values they require to enact and in how they weight each cue. Do decision makers actually use any of these strategies? Ways to investigate this question include analyzing people's choices and the cues that they reveal. However, different strategies often predict the same decisions, and search behavior says nothing about whether or how people use the information that they acquire. In this research, we attempt to elucidate which strategies participants use in a multiple‐cue probabilistic inference task by examining verbal protocols, a high‐density source of process data. The promise of verbal data is in their utility for testing detailed information processing models. To that end, we apply protocol analysis in conjunction with computational simulations. We find converging evidence across outcome measures, search measures, and verbal reports that most participants use simplifying heuristics, namely take‐the‐best. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.