An elicitation method for multiple linear regression models

This paper describes a method of quantifying subjective opinion about a normal linear regression model. Opinion about the regression coefficients and experimental error is elicited and modeled by a multivariate probability distribution (a Bayesian conjugate prior distribution). The distribution model is richly parameterized and various assessment tasks are used to estimate its parameters. These tasks include the revision of opinion in the light of hypothetical data, the assessment of credible intervals, and a task commonly performed in cue-weighting experiments. A new assessment task is also introduced. In addition, implementation of the method in an interactive computer program is described and the method is illustrated with a practical example.     

Institutional Prospects: Exploring Perceptions of Past Benefits and Future Risks From Supreme Court Decisions and Support for Institutional Change

This study investigates support for changes to the U.S. Supreme Court using prospect theory. Risk domain is alternatively conceptualized as the perception of retrospective benefits and future risks posed by Supreme Court decision-making. Two experiments explore how citizens think about gains and losses from Court outputs. Findings indicate that retrospective benefits are influenced by the relevant time frame respondents are asked to consider, political partisanship, and the interaction between them; prospective risks are affected by question wording, partisanship, and an interaction between respondents' partisanship and the relevant time frame. Using retrospective benefits as a proxy for determining if someone is in the domain of gains or losses does not yield consistent results regarding support for change to the Supreme Court. Conceptualizing risk domain in terms of the expectation of future gains and losses, however, does yield significant effects consistent with prospect theory.     

Popular Politics and the Clinton/Lewinsky Affair: The Implications for Leadership

The Clinton/Lewinsky scandal unfolded in an era of "new media" politics that presented fresh and often unanticipated challenges for presidential leadership. New media actors, such as call-in talk radio and TV hosts, tabloid journalists, and Internet gossip columnists, played a significant role in scandal politics. They influenced the framework within which stories were reported and perceived by the public. New media channels, in particular, framed the events leading up to the presidential impeachment in terms of dramatic, prime time–style entertainment. This entertainment news frame allowed citizens to compartmentalize their perceptions of President Clinton as a leader versus a private individual involved in a sex scandal. Media Politics can explain, at least in part, President Clinton's strong job performance evaluations in the midst of one of the most publicized political scandals of the century.     

A Muslim President? Misperceptions of Barack Obama's Faith in the 2008 Presidential Campaign

Rumors that President Barack Obama is a Muslim were rampant during the 2008 presidential campaign and continued well into his presidency. These rumors were widely believed, were electorally consequential, and are part of a growing trend of politically motivated misconceptions. Thus, relying principally on the theory of motivated reasoning, we examine the factors that shaped citizens’ beliefs about and responses to messages about Obama's faith. Using an original survey experiment and data from the 2008–2009 American National Election Study panel, we show that citizens’ responses to rumors about Obama's religion were shaped by political predispositions, political awareness, and their interactions. Identification of Obama with Islam was most widespread, and the cues encouraging such identification were most successful, among individuals with low levels of political awareness, conservative and Republican identifications, and negative views of cultural out‐groups. Viewing Obama as Muslim was significantly less prevalent among people with high levels of awareness and with the opposite set of predispositions.     

The “Deliberative Digital Divide:” Opinion Leadership and Integrative Complexity in the U.S. Political Blogosphere

This study examined the association between political ideology and linguistic indicators of integrative complexity and opinion leadership in U.S. political blog posts (N = 519). Using Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) text analysis, we found that the posts of conservative bloggers were more integratively simple than those of liberal bloggers. Furthermore, in support of a proposed opinion leadership model of integrative complexity, the relationship between ideology and integrative complexity was mediated by psychological distancing (an indicator of a hierarchical communication style). These findings demonstrate an ideological divide in the extent to which the blogosphere reflects deliberative democratic ideals.     

Fear and Implicit Racism: Whites’ Support for Voter ID laws

Oftentimes, Whites are unaware that they may have slighted Blacks. Although researchers have spent a considerable amount of attention disentangling this form of implicit (unconscious) racial bias from explicit (conscious) racial bias, we are less clear about the conditions that cause implicit racism to matter in American politics. In this article, we offer a theory of how fear and Whites' unconscious racial bias are tightly linked in memory, and triggering this emotion can make these implicit attitudes more salient in public opinion. To test our theory, we focus on Whites’ opinions toward voter ID laws. Our expectation is that inducing fear should cause implicit racism to play an important role in Whites’ evaluation of the policy. Using an adult national experiment over two waves, we induced several emotions to elicit fear, anger, or relaxation. The findings show that the fear condition causes Whites high in implicit racism to be more supportive of voter ID laws than similar individuals in the anger and control conditions. On the other hand, fear does not cause Whites high in explicit racism to be more supportive of voter ID laws.     

No Postmaterialists in Foxholes: Postmaterialist Values,Nationalism, and National Threat in the People's Republic of China

In this article, I present findings from a survey experiment in which Chinese university students exposed to a treatment designed to increase feelings of national threat were—based on their responses to the four‐item postmaterialism values‐priority battery—significantly more likely to be classified as “pure materialists.” These findings are presented in support of the proposition that perception of a hostile international environment may tend to exaggerate citizens' authoritarian and nationalistic sentiments at the expense of more democratically favorable value orientations. Media and political figures in the West who rail against the evils of China's authoritarian leadership might believe that they are championing and encouraging democratic aspirations among the Chinese people, but might instead be inciting impulses and attitudes that are far less “democracy‐friendly.”     

The Appeal to Expert Opinion: Quantitative Support for a Bayesian Network Approach

The appeal to expert opinion is an argument form that uses the verdict of an expert to support a position or hypothesis. A previous scheme‐based treatment of the argument form is formalized within a Bayesian network that is able to capture the critical aspects of the argument form, including the central considerations of the expert's expertise and trustworthiness. We propose this as an appropriate normative framework for the argument form, enabling the development and testing of quantitative predictions as to how people evaluate this argument, suggesting that such an approach might be beneficial to argumentation research generally. We subsequently present two experiments as an example of the potential for future research in this vein, demonstrating that participants' quantitative ratings of the convincingness of a proposition that has been supported with an appeal to expert opinion were broadly consistent with the predictions of the Bayesian model.     

The Racialization of International Trade

Despite their less vulnerable economic status, white individuals' attitudes toward overseas trade in the United States may have become more protectionist than those of economically disadvantaged minorities. We present results from five different studies examining two different ways in which trade may have become racialized. First, we examine the extent to which a person's racial identity is associated with levels of trade support. Second, we examine whether the predominant racial identity of a potential trading-partner country influences people's willingness to trade with that country. Using various surveys and multiple survey experiments conducted over the past 12 years, we find that white individuals have become less supportive of trade than minorities and that whites are more likely than minorities to favor trade with highly similar countries. We suggest that minority support for trade is due to four well-documented differences in the psychological predispositions of whites and minorities in the United States. Minorities have lower levels of racial prejudice, are lower in social dominance, and express less nationalism than whites. At the same time, there is evidence of rising ingroup racial consciousness among whites. Each of these characteristics has been independently linked to trade support in a direction encouraging greater support for trade among minorities. As the United States grows ever closer to becoming a “majority minority” nation, the racialization of trade attitudes may stimulate shifts in the likely future of America's trade relationships.     

Influence of value predispositions,interpersonal contact,and mediated exposure on public attitudes toward homosexuals in Singapore

This national survey tracks changes in Singaporeans' attitudes toward lesbians and gay men (ATLG) and examines value predispositions, interpersonal contact, and mediated exposure as predictors of ATLG and acceptance of homosexuals. The study replicates and extends research done previously and addresses temporal shifts in values and views. Findings indicate that the relatively small positive change in ATLG from 2005 to 2010 was mainly due to values and demographic factors. The addition of several new predictive variables increased the variance explained for why people hold certain ATLG and their acceptance. Conformity to norms, intrinsic religiosity, Western orientation, interpersonal contact, and mediated exposure were significantly associated with both ATLG and acceptance of homosexuals. Perception of homosexuality as a choice was significantly associated with ATLG but not with acceptance of homosexuals. Asian orientation and extrinsic religiosity showed no significant association with either dependent variable. The findings are discussed in the context of a multicultural Asian society and future directions for research.