Methodische Grundlagen der Kriminalprognose

Zusammenfassung   Gesetzestexte sehen bei bestimmten strafrechtlichen Entscheidungen die Unterstützung des Richters durch Prognosegutachter vor. Ihre Aufgabe ist es, die Rechtsentscheidung in ihren prognostischen Aspekten auf eine rationale, wissenschaftlich fundierte Grundlage zu stellen. Methodisch lassen sich dabei wissenschaftlich fundierte Prognosen auf unterschiedlichen Wegen erstellen. Der eine Weg beruht auf empirisch gesicherten Erfahrungen über die Rückf?lligkeit von T?tern und über die die Rückfallwahrscheinlichkeit beeinflussenden Tat- und T?termerkmale. Prognosemethoden nach diesem Modell bemühen sich, diese Erfahrungen auch für individualprognostische Zwecke nutzbar zu machen. Der andere Weg führt über eine systematische retrospektive Analyse der individuellen Ursachen der bisherigen Delinquenz des T?ters und schreibt diese individuellen Bezüge prognostisch fort. Prognosemethoden nach diesem Modell bemühen sich vor allem, den erforderlichen Urteilsbildungsprozess zu systematisieren und eine hinreichende Beurteilungsgrundlage zu gew?hrleisten. Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt beide Ans?tze in ihren methodischen Grundzügen und wissenschaftlichen Bew?hrungen vor und diskutiert ihre jeweiligen Vorzüge und Begrenzungen im Kontext der Mindestanforderungen für Prognosegutachten im Strafrecht.      

A Unified Nonparametric IRT Model for <Emphasis Type="Italic">d</Emphasis>-Dimensional Psychological Test Data (<Emphasis Type="Italic">d</Emphasis>-ISOP)

The (univariate) isotonic psychometric (ISOP) model (Scheiblechner, 1995) is a nonparametric IRT model for dichotomous and polytomous (rating scale) psychological test data. A weak subject independence axiom W1 postulates that the subjects are ordered in the same way except for ties (i.e., similarly or isotonically) by all items of a psychological test. A weak item independence axiom W2 postulates that the order of the items is similar for all subjects. Local independence (LI or W3) is assumed in all models. With these axioms, sample-free unidimensional ordinal measurements of items and subjects become feasible. A cancellation axiom (Co) gives, as a result, the additive isotonic psychometric (ADISOP) model and interval scales for subjects and items, and an independence axiom (W4) gives the completely additive isotonic psychometric (CADISOP) model with an interval scale for the response variable (Scheiblechner, 1999). The d-ISOP, d-ADISOP, and d-CADISOP models are generalizations to d-dimensional dependent variables (e.g., speed and accuracy of response). The author would like to thank an Associate Editor and two anonymous referees and also Professor H.H. Schulze for their very valuable suggestions and corrections.     

Why neuroscience matters to cognitive neuropsychology

The broad issue in this paper is the relationship between cognitive psychology and neuroscience. That issue arises particularly sharply for cognitive neurospsychology, some of whose practitioners claim a methodological autonomy for their discipline. They hold that behavioural data from neuropsychological impairments are sufficient to justify assumptions about the underlying modular structure of human cognitive architecture, as well as to make inferences about its various components. But this claim to methodological autonomy can be challenged on both philosophical and empirical grounds. A priori considerations about (cognitive) multiple realisability challenge the thesis on philosophical grounds, and neuroscientific findings from developmental disorders substantiate that challenge empirically. The conclusion is that behavioural evidence alone is inadequate for scientific progress since appearances of modularity can be thoroughly deceptive, obscuring both the dynamic processes of neural development and the endstate network architecture of real cognitive systems.     

The Relations of Temperament and Emotion Self-regulation with Suicidal Behaviors in a Clinical Sample of Depressed Children in Hungary

Although major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with suicidal behaviors, some depressed individuals are not suicidal and others evidence various forms of suicidality. We thus investigated whether aspects of temperament and self-regulation of dysphoria represent risk factors for DSM-IV suicidality (recurrent thoughts of death, recurrent suicidal ideation, suicidal plan, and suicide attempt) in depressed youths. Using a sample of children with MDD (N = 407; ages 7-14 years), recruited from clinical sites across Hungary, we tested the hypotheses that: (a) suicidality is related to higher levels of trait negative emotionality as well as more maladaptive and fewer adaptive regulatory responses to dysphoria and (b) as the severity of suicidal behavior increases, levels of trait negative emotionality and dysfunctional emotion regulation also increase. We also explored if other aspects of temperament relate to suicidality. Children's DSM-IV diagnoses were based on semi-structured interviews and best-estimate psychiatric consensus. Parents independently provided ratings of their children's temperament, and children separately completed an inventory of emotion regulation (ER). Using multivariate models, we failed to confirm the hypothesized relations of negative trait emotionality and suicidality, but confirmed that high maladaptive and low adaptive ER response tendencies increase the odds of suicidal behaviors, above and beyond the risk posed by depressive illness severity. Unplanned interaction terms between temperament dimensions (other than negative emotionality) and ER suggested that at some high-extremes of temperament, ER has no impact on suicidality but in their absence, adaptive ER lowers the risk of suicidality. The practical implications of the findings are discussed.     

The Buss–Perry Aggression Questionnaire: Some unfinished business

This article gauges the extent to which items and sum scores of the Buss–Perry Aggression Questionnaire (BPAQ) are contaminated with social desirability response set (SDR), and the extent to which that contamination results in biased findings. Special validity coefficients are introduced for that purpose. Although the SDR confound was quite substantial across all items (with one exception), it is argued on the basis of the size of the introduced validity coefficients and other, logical considerations that paradoxically the confound had minimally distorting effects in estimating the BPAQ models selected for probing the extent of bias.     

视觉空间注意的事件相关电位研究

视觉空间注意是心理学多年来一直探讨的问题,也是近来多学科共同关注的领域。在脑机制研究中,事件相关电位(ERP)的研究方法具有高时间分辨率的特点,近年来高密度记录技术的发展,也提高了ERP在功能定位方面的作用,因此其应用日益广泛。该文概述了近年来有关ERP在视觉空间注意研究中的实验方法、结果和初步结论,并就今后研究方向提出了几点看法。     

中学生元担忧与一般焦虑

根据AdrianWells的一般焦虑的担忧模式 ,对广州市 6 36名中学生元担忧状况以及元担忧与一般焦虑的关系进行了研究。结果发现 ,高中生元担忧水平高于初中 ,显著差异。初中二年级和高中二年级的元担忧水平高于其他两个年级 ,尤其是初中 ,显著差异。中学生元担忧的性别差异不明显。中学生元担忧各因素与焦虑均存在极显著正相关 ,考试、家庭、心理健康、外貌和身体健康 5个元担忧因素对焦虑的贡献显著     

位置提示下视觉注意范围的调控机制

研究视觉空间注意中不同注意范围引起脑内加工时程的动态变化。使用固定位置的、三种不同直径的线圈作为注意范围的位置性提示,祛除空间定位因素的影响,记录反应时和事件相关电位（ERP）数据。结果显示：在同等注意范围时,随着刺激位置远离视野中心,反应时延长,靶刺激诱发的P1、N1不受刺激位置的影响,而其前部N2的波幅明显受到刺激位置的影响;在靶刺激位置相同时,随着注意范围的扩大,反应时缩短,靶刺激诱发的P1、N1不受提示范围大小的影响,而其前部P2的波幅明显受到注意范围的影响。结果说明：①视觉注意范围信息加工与靶刺激诱发的P2成分相关;②视觉注意诱发的P1、N1成分,主要与注意方位相关,而与注意范围大小无关;③注意范围变化引起注意集中度的调节是在一定范围内进行的。     

学习困难儿童的元记忆监测与控制特点

以有无意义联系的两种中文词对为材料,采用2×3×2混合实验设计,对小学三到五年级学习困难儿童的元记忆监测、控制水平与学优儿童之间的差异及其发展特点进行研究。结果表明：1．学习困难儿童在三种元记忆监测判断等级上均显著低于学优儿童。2．学习困难儿童具有元记忆控制能力,但其控制水平相对低于学优儿童。3．学习困难儿童的元记忆监测判断和学习时间分配之间存在交互影响。4．学习困难儿童的元记忆监测和控制水平存在较为复杂的发展特点。据此得出结论认为,学习困难儿童的元记忆监测与控制能力都比学优儿童差,同时也表现出一定的发展趋势。     

关系-表征复杂性模型的检验

目前有关问题难度的观点多是不全面的,在综合前人研究的基础上提出了关系-表征复杂性模型。在该模型里,区分了问题难度和问题解决难度两个概念,二者的本质分别是关系复杂性和表征复杂性;关系复杂性包括水平复杂性和等级复杂性,表征复杂性相应地包括表征广度和表征深度。以172名小学高年级学生为被试,以长方形面积问题方面的三种测验收集的数据对该模型的内部和外部效度进行了检验,结果表明它能够有效解释问题（解决）难度,区分优、中、差三类学生所能达到的表征复杂性。这说明该模型有理论价值