Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practice

The integrated use of scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future scenarios; while MCDA can support an in-depth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright, suggests the use of scenario planning with multi-attribute value theory, a mathematically simple, yet extensively researched and widely employed multi-criteria method. However, so far, such framework has been presented only using hypothetical problems. In this paper, we describe two case studies where this approach was used to support real-world strategic decisions. We discuss the challenges and limitations we encountered in applying it and suggest some possible improvements that could be made to such framework. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

保护动机对农村流动人口性病艾滋病高危性行为的预测

农村流动人口已经成为我国性病艾滋病预防干预的重点人群。为了探讨流动人口所存在的性病艾滋病高危性行为,以及保护动机（Protection Motivation）对性病艾滋病高危性行为的预测作用,研究选取2201名从农村到北京打工已有3个月的流动人口为被试,采用问卷调查的形式,要求其报自己报告初始性行为发生的时间、性伙伴的数量、商业性行为、性伙伴的性行为、安全套的使用,对我国性病艾滋病严重程度的评估,以及所拥有的性病艾滋病症状知识和传播知识。对904名已发生性行为的流动人口的统计分析发现：（1）农村流动人口存在较多的高危性行为,男性流动人口的高危性行为明显多于女性流动人口;（2）保护动机理论对农村流动人口的性病艾滋病高危性行为具有明显的预测作用,其中的外在奖励、内在奖励、反应效能和反应代价与农村流动人口的性病艾滋病高危性行为的关系更为密切。研究揭示,保护动机理论可以作为我国今后开展农村流动人口性病艾滋病高危性行为预防干预工作的一个基础     

风险社会的伦理意蕴

“风险社会”已是人类可经验到的事实。风险是一个表明自然终结和传统终结的概念,它是预测和控制人类活动的未来结果,即激进现代化的各种各样、不可预料的后果的现代手段,使一种拓殖未来的企图,一种认识的图谱。。在风险社会,风险是永恒存在的,它只具有有限的可控性,对人类是一个很大的挑战。风险和责任是内在关联的。风险社会赋予了伦理以更加丰富的内涵,加强风险社会的伦理研究,建立风险伦理学,将有利于我们更好地防范风险。     

Women's bar‐related victimization: Refining and testing a conceptual model

A model of bar victimization is proposed that explores the relationships among a woman's exposure to the bar environment (i.e., frequency of going to bars), her intoxication in that setting (i.e., usual number of drinks), and such individual difference factors as her previous history of victimization (childhood sexual abuse, lifetime violence, and previous partner abuse) and personality characteristics (depression, social anxiety, sensation seeking, and hostility). Earlier findings from work in this area suggest that exposure to the bar environment increases a woman's risk for more severe aggression. The data being used to test the proposed model are from a survey of 198 women bar drinkers in western New York State. These women described bar‐related victimization that ranged from verbal aggression (e.g., threats) through severe physical and sexual violence (e.g., assault and rape). Younger age, history of victimization, greater negative affect, and more frequent drinking in bars were predictive of more severe bar‐related victimization during the past year. These findings are discussed in terms of women's risk for victimization in bars and needed areas of future research. Aggr. Behav. 25:349–364, 1999. © 1999 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Self-reported Attitude Towards Speeding and Its Possible Consequences in Five Different Road Contexts

Driving above the permitted speed limit is a common violation on the roads of Great Britain. Moreover, speeding is associated with negative consequences in the form of damage, injury and fatal road traffic accidents. The aim of this study was to assess, by means of self-report, the prevalence of this social problem across five different contexts: a residential road, a busy shopping street, a dual carriageway, a winding country road, and a motorway. The extent to which speeding was perceived to be associated with negative consequences was also assessed. Results suggest that most drivers make judgements about the type of road on which they are driving and the degree of speeding that is acceptable, and that their intentions to speed vary accordingly. Some drivers reported a consistent intention to speed, however, and these people were characterized by greater general deviance on the road (e.g. high violation score), rather than by a stronger tendency to underestimate the negative consequences. In general, however, younger people and those with less regard for negative consequences reported stronger intentions to speed. These results are discussed with reference to strategies for addressing the problem of speeding. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The development of executive function in early childhood is inversely related to change in body mass index: Evidence for an energetic tradeoff?

A well‐established literature demonstrates executive function (EF) deficits in obese children and adults relative to healthy weight comparisons. EF deficits in obesity are associated with overeating and impulsive consumption of high calorie foods leading to excess weight gain and to problems with metabolic regulation and low‐grade inflammation that detrimentally affect the structure and function of prefrontal cortex. Here, we test a complementary explanation for the relation between EF and body mass index (BMI) grounded in the energy demand of the developing brain. Recent work shows that the brain accounts for a lifetime peak of 66% of resting metabolic rate in childhood and that developmental changes in brain energetics and normative changes in body weight gain are closely inversely related. This finding suggests a trade‐off in early childhood between energy used to support brain development versus energy used to support physical growth and fat deposition. To test this theorized energetic trade‐off, we analyzed data from a large longitudinal sample (N = 1,292) and found that change in EF from age 3 to 5 years, as a proxy for brain development in energetically costly prefrontal cortex, is inversely related to change in BMI from age 2 to 5 years. Greater linear decline in BMI predicted greater linear increase in EF. We interpret this finding as tentative support for a brain–body energetic trade‐off in early childhood with implications for lifetime obesity risk.     

Attachment security differs by later autism spectrum disorder: A prospective study

Although difficulties with social relationships are key to autism spectrum disorder (ASD), no previous study has examined infant attachment security prior to ASD diagnosis. We prospectively assessed attachment security at 15 months in high‐risk infants with later ASD (high‐risk/ASD, n = 16), high‐risk infants without later ASD (high‐risk/no‐ASD, n = 40), and low‐risk infants without later ASD (low‐risk/no‐ASD, n = 39) using the Strange Situation Procedure. High‐risk/ASD infants were disproportionately more likely to be classified as insecure (versus secure) and more likely to be classified as insecure‐resistant (versus secure or avoidant) than high‐risk/no‐ASD and low‐risk/no‐ASD infants. High‐risk infants with insecure‐resistant attachments were over nine times more likely to receive an ASD diagnosis than high‐risk infants with secure attachments. Insecure‐resistant attachment in high‐risk infants suggests a propensity toward negative affect with the parent in conditions of stress. Insecure‐resistant attachment may prove useful as a potential early index of propensity toward ASD diagnosis in high‐risk siblings, while insecure‐resistant attachment in the context of emergent autism may contribute to difficulties experienced by children with ASD and their families.     

Gaze behavior during urban cycling: Effects of subjective risk perception and vista space properties

In this research, we investigate how gaze behavior during urban cycling is affected by subjective risk perception and the local spatial configuration. For this purpose, participants cycled at five defined test locations while wearing a mobile eye tracking system. Next to the fixation duration, we extracted sight vector lengths (i.e., the distance between the current body location and the gaze location) and gaze angles (i.e., the degree to which the gaze deviates from the current travel direction). Concerning risk perception, participants provided a hazard estimate for each test location, as well as information about specific areas they experienced as dangerous. This information was aggregated into a local hazard level across all participants. Finally, the vista space (i.e., the space visible from the current position during a fixation) was quantified via isovist analysis. The results imply that spatially open locations, extending about equally into all directions, increase the level of perceived risk. Depending on the local spatial properties, participants also gaze into different directions, rather than further ahead and into their travel direction. Higher cycling experience and greater familiarity with a location enabled a more foresighted and focused gaze behavior. Our findings underline the importance to provide cyclists not only with enough space and with unobstructed views, but also to limit the space they are required to distribute their attention to.     

Overall performance impairment and crash risk due to distracted driving: A comprehensive analysis using structural equation modelling

Distracted driving leads to performance changes in both longitudinal and lateral control. However, driving performance, being a multidimensional phenomenon, is very difficult to be interpreted from individual performance measures. The present study aimed to exhibit the distraction impacts on overall driving performance estimated by a single measure rather than assessing distraction effects on individual performance metrics such as speed, acceleration, lateral variation, etc. The study also focused on modelling and quantifying the impacts of overall deteriorated driving performance on crash risk. To achieve the objectives, a comparative analysis of investigating phone and music player usage was conducted using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). In total, 90 drivers’ demographic details and driving performance data in distracted and non-distracted driving environments were collected. Firstly, the latent variable “performance degradation” was derived from longitudinal and lateral performance measures. Then the structural model revealed a positive relationship between the distractions and the overall performance degradation. Finally, the crash risk was modelled against the presence of distraction and performance degradation. With a factor loading of 0.29, the impact of deteriorated driving performance (i.e., indirect impact) was found to be the highest among all the contributory factors of the crash risk. Further, the results showed that among the distractions (i.e., direct impact), texting had the highest impact (factor loading = 0.28) on crash risk followed by visual-manual tasks related to music player (factor loading = 0.21). Thus, the present study quantified the effects of deteriorated driving performance caused by distracted driving on the crash risk. Further, the study also presented quantified effects of each distracting activity on the crash risk which accounted for the factors that could not be considered through the performance degradation measure. The approach used in the present study can be adopted in designing the countermeasures using advanced driver warning systems.     

建言行为的理论机制及未来研究展望

自Van Dyne和LePine把建言行为引入到组织行为学(OB)领域之后,这一概念便成为理论界研究的热点问题。经过系统梳理,本文提出了建言行为以往研究三种范式的整合框架,即人际风险观、责任义务观和价值信念观。并且,基于控制论(Control Theory)的视角,本文从个体建言内容产生、建言行为目的、个体建言是否被采纳、建言实施四个环节进行系统展望,提出了未来建言行为相关研究的方向。