患者集中大医院就医的行为经济学分析

认为患者的行为心理因素是造成就医集中现象的重要原因,其中,关于参照点的选择是影响患者就医行为的重要因素,风险规避、损失厌恶、心理账户、敏感度递减等因素也是重要的影响因素。通过提高社区医院的力量、改革医疗保险的支付方式、对技术的理性追求等措施,可以缓解这一反常现象。     

成就动机与机会-威胁认知

采用问卷法探讨 3类变量即成就动机、风险情景中的冒险倾向以及对风险情景的机会 -威胁认知的关系。结果发现相对争取成功动机而言 ,回避失败动机对预测个体的机会 -威胁认知状况更为敏感 ;研究也显示 ,高成就动机组是以强烈的争取成功的倾向导致其对机会的积极认知 ;低成就动机组则是以对失败回避的趋力强化了威胁认知。个体在风险情景中的行为倾向与认知反应显得更为复杂。首先 ,框架效应不是普遍但的确存在于某类风险情景中 ,方差分析证实风险情景与框架间的交互作用达到显著性水平 ,这说明被试保守倾向的反应受到情景与框架效应的交互影响 ;其次 ,风险情景即“获益”和“损失”极大地影响着被试的风险反应模式     

消费心理学中的风险认知

文章回顾了消费心理学研究中有关风险认知的文献,对于双因素模型、多维度模型、复杂模型和整合模型等风险认知的概念模型进行了综合介绍,并分析了影响消费者风险认知的因素、产品风险与服务风险的差异以及降低风险认知的策略。文章最后展望了消费者风险认知的研究趋势,尤其是电子商务中的风险认知问题。     

保护动机对农村流动人口性病艾滋病高危性行为的预测

农村流动人口已经成为我国性病艾滋病预防干预的重点人群。为了探讨流动人口所存在的性病艾滋病高危性行为,以及保护动机（Protection Motivation）对性病艾滋病高危性行为的预测作用,研究选取2201名从农村到北京打工已有3个月的流动人口为被试,采用问卷调查的形式,要求其报自己报告初始性行为发生的时间、性伙伴的数量、商业性行为、性伙伴的性行为、安全套的使用,对我国性病艾滋病严重程度的评估,以及所拥有的性病艾滋病症状知识和传播知识。对904名已发生性行为的流动人口的统计分析发现：（1）农村流动人口存在较多的高危性行为,男性流动人口的高危性行为明显多于女性流动人口;（2）保护动机理论对农村流动人口的性病艾滋病高危性行为具有明显的预测作用,其中的外在奖励、内在奖励、反应效能和反应代价与农村流动人口的性病艾滋病高危性行为的关系更为密切。研究揭示,保护动机理论可以作为我国今后开展农村流动人口性病艾滋病高危性行为预防干预工作的一个基础     

Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practice

The integrated use of scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future scenarios; while MCDA can support an in-depth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright, suggests the use of scenario planning with multi-attribute value theory, a mathematically simple, yet extensively researched and widely employed multi-criteria method. However, so far, such framework has been presented only using hypothetical problems. In this paper, we describe two case studies where this approach was used to support real-world strategic decisions. We discuss the challenges and limitations we encountered in applying it and suggest some possible improvements that could be made to such framework. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Self-reported Attitude Towards Speeding and Its Possible Consequences in Five Different Road Contexts

Driving above the permitted speed limit is a common violation on the roads of Great Britain. Moreover, speeding is associated with negative consequences in the form of damage, injury and fatal road traffic accidents. The aim of this study was to assess, by means of self-report, the prevalence of this social problem across five different contexts: a residential road, a busy shopping street, a dual carriageway, a winding country road, and a motorway. The extent to which speeding was perceived to be associated with negative consequences was also assessed. Results suggest that most drivers make judgements about the type of road on which they are driving and the degree of speeding that is acceptable, and that their intentions to speed vary accordingly. Some drivers reported a consistent intention to speed, however, and these people were characterized by greater general deviance on the road (e.g. high violation score), rather than by a stronger tendency to underestimate the negative consequences. In general, however, younger people and those with less regard for negative consequences reported stronger intentions to speed. These results are discussed with reference to strategies for addressing the problem of speeding. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk perception and victim perception: The judgment of HIV cases

There is a vast literature confirming that reactions to different risks are strongly affected by characteristics other than scientific risk estimates; most of this research has concentrated on mapping people's representations of sets of widely varying dangers (e.g. diseases, natural disasters, accidents). This study explored a potentially vital component of risk that cannot be studied by eliciting general reactions to many hazards: the extent to which who is at risk contributes to perceptions and judgments of a risk. While it may be preferable to assume that misfortunes affect the population uniformly, of course the truth is not so egalitarian. Thus, for both theoretical and policy reasons, it is worth exploring psychometrically representations of a particular risk as it affects different people. Using multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analysis, we constructed models of respondents' representations of a disease assumed to be particularly affected by victim perception: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). Subjects rated the similarity of all possible pairs among 16 scenarios involving HIV infection; the scenarios contained information about both the victim and the method of contraction. A set of attribute scales as well as political/demographic information allowed us both to interpret the structures and to predict individual differences. The results confirmed that reactions to HIV infection are greatly affected by reactions to the victim. In particular, the perceived distastefulness and riskiness of the method of infection loomed larger than did either the overall likability of the victim or the general riskiness of the victim's behavior. Further, the salience of the most statistically influential dimension, ‘deservedness’, depended significantly on demographic and political characteristics of the respondents, suggesting that the relationship between personal values and risk perception is in part mediated by victim perception. Implications for risk perception work and public policy are discussed.     

Success at Catching and Keeping Toddler's Attention: An Examination of Joint Attention Among Low-Income Mothers and Their 2-Year-Olds

Recent research suggests that competent caregiving by low-income parents may serve to buffer young children from some of the deleterious consequences of economic hardship. As one means of exploring competent caregiving in the context of poverty, this study examined the structuring of joint attention among 47 low-income mothers and their 24-month-old toddlers. Findings revealed that, on the whole, dyads spent approximately half of a 10-minute play period in bouts of collaborative joint attention. While mothers made social overtures, or bids, more frequently than children, children played a significant role in initiating bouts of joint attention. Highly engaged dyads generated significantly higher numbers of reciprocal maternal bids and fewer reciprocal child bids overall than did disengaged dyads. Sequential analyses suggested that reciprocal bids initiated by children were likely to lead to periods of collaborative joint attention among engaged dyads, but not among disengaged dyads. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

风险社会的伦理意蕴

“风险社会”已是人类可经验到的事实。风险是一个表明自然终结和传统终结的概念,它是预测和控制人类活动的未来结果,即激进现代化的各种各样、不可预料的后果的现代手段,使一种拓殖未来的企图,一种认识的图谱。。在风险社会,风险是永恒存在的,它只具有有限的可控性,对人类是一个很大的挑战。风险和责任是内在关联的。风险社会赋予了伦理以更加丰富的内涵,加强风险社会的伦理研究,建立风险伦理学,将有利于我们更好地防范风险。