Choosing Between Lotteries: Remarkable Coordination Without Communication

The current research examines tacit coordination behavior in a lottery selection task. Two hundred participants in each of three experiments and 100 in a fourth choose to participate in one of two lotteries, where one lottery has a larger prize than the other. Independent of variations in the complexity of the mechanism of prize allocation, the prize amounts, and whether the lottery is the participant's first or second choice, we typically find that the percentage of participants who choose the high versus low‐prize lotteries does not significantly differ from the equilibrium predictions. This coordination is achieved without communication or experience. We additionally find that participants with an analytical thinking style and a risk‐averse tendency are more likely to choose the low‐prize lottery over the high‐prize lottery. This tendency seems to be stable across choices. The pattern of our results suggests that to achieve tacit coordination, having a subset of individuals who attend to the choices of others is sufficient. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Competitive Dynamics in Forecasting: The Interaction of Skill and Uncertainty

The outcomes in many competitive tasks depend upon both skill and luck. Behavioral theories on risk taking in tournaments indicate that low‐skilled individuals may have incentives to take more risks than high‐skilled ones. We build on these theories and suggest, in addition, that when luck is more important in determining outcomes, the increase in risk taking is larger for low‐skilled than high‐skilled individuals. We test this hypothesis by analyzing stock analysts' forecasts of companies' earnings per share under market conditions that vary in volatility and thus imply different levels of luck in outcomes. Specifically, noting that forecasts that deviate widely from the consensus—which is observable by the analyst—potentially carry career‐related rewards but also reputational risks, we examine the degree of deviation from consensus exhibited by analysts of different skill levels (measured by both past forecasting accuracy and education) in different market conditions. We find that average deviations from consensus increase as markets become more volatile. At the same time, under conditions of high volatility, low‐skilled analysts exhibit larger increases in deviations from consensus than high‐skilled analysts. These field data results support our hypothesis based on of risk taking in tournaments. We discuss alternative interpretations such as, for example, self‐serving attributions and indicate directions for future research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How to Make Decisions in An Uncertain World: Heuristics,Biases, and Risk Perception

From the seventies onward a large quantity of theoretical and empirical studies have investigated the heuristic principles and cognitive strategies that individuals use to deal with risky and uncertain situations. This research has shown how the explicative and predictive shortcomings of normative risk analysis depend in many respects on undervaluing the continuous interaction between the individual and the environment. There are factors that, day by day, represent significant obstacles to decision making.     

Finding the right touch: extending the right-touch regulation approach to the accreditation of voluntary registers

ABSTRACT

What is ‘right-touch regulation’? In this article we explain why the Professional Standards Authority for Health and Social Care (the Authority) has focussed much of its policy work in recent times on seeking an answer to this question, and why it wants to know. We explain why the Authority's predecessor body, the Council for Healthcare Regulatory Excellence, felt there was a need to define the concept of ‘right-touch regulation’ and explore the policy environment from which it emerged, linking the idea to existing regulatory principles. We then go on to discuss how the government's policy of establishing an accreditation scheme for voluntary registers – a task which has been given to the Authority – will fit with the right-touch regulation approach.     

Development of a Multi-Disciplinary Intervention for the Treatment of Childhood Obesity Based on Cognitive Behavioral Therapy

Along the lines of the evidence-based recommendations, we developed a multi-disciplinary intervention for overweight children 7- to 12-years-old, primarily aiming at helping children to adopt healthier eating habits and a physically active lifestyle. The program combined nutrition intervention, based on a non-dieting approach, with physical activity intervention, implemented through the basic principles of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT), along with parental support. The program was conducted by dieticians with the collaboration of child psychiatrists and pediatricians. Training and regular supervision upon CBT priniciples application was intended to enhance dieticians' efficiency. The intervention is currently being evaluated to determine its effectiveness in treating childhood obesity.     

Digit ratio and risk taking in post-menopausal Finnish women

Although an indicator of prenatal testosterone (PT), 2D:4D ratio, has been extensively studied in the domain of financial risk taking, other domains of risk have received less attention. It is thought that elevated levels of PT relate to more masculinised behaviours, including increased risk taking propensity. In this study, we report negative findings with regards to health (average weekly drinking and daily smoking) and sexual (lifetime number of sexual partners) risk in a sample of post-menopausal Finnish women (N = 146–262). Our results suggest that PT may not masculinise health and sexual risk taking in women, at least at an older age.     

Parents May Hold the Keys to Success in Immersion Treatment of Adolescent Obesity

This study examined the potential impact of parents on the long-term results of an immersion program for the treatment of adolescent obesity. Teenagers participated in a 4- to 8-week therapeutic camp. Those who continued losing weight 8- to 12-months postcamp were identified as “Losers”; those who regained weight were considered “Gainers.” Parents from both groups were interviewed about their own current lifestyle habits 1 to 1.5 years after camp ended. Results indicate that more of the initially overweight parents from the Loser group lost weight during the follow-up period than the overweight parents of Gainers. Losers' parents also reported better implementation of several aspects of the weight control program. The present results suggest that helping parents adopt lifestyle changes for themselves, even within the context of relatively short immersion treatments, may maximize outcomes for obese teenagers.     

Predicting Perceived Risk of Crime: a Multilevel Study

With a sample of Italians selected from 71 Italian counties (N = 1,868), we performed two multilevel analyses aimed at predicting the perceived risk of crime at local (i.e., in the participants' county of residence) and at societal (i.e., in the context of Italian society) levels. A significant proportion of the variation in local risk perception was at the county level. The following individual variables predicted higher levels of this variable: indirect victimization, the perception of social and physical disorder, being a woman, being poorly educated, and being an older person. Among the ecological predictors, the crime rate and unemployment rate predicted higher levels of local crime risk perception, while the immigrant rate did not. Perceived risk of crime at the societal level did not show significant variation at the county level. Education, being a man, trusting people, and adhesion to post‐materialistic values predicted lower levels of societal crime risk perception, while number of sons/daughters and exposure to television news increased it. The limitations and possible development of this study are discussed.     

Emotion and reason in everyday risk perception

Although research has documented the importance of emotion in risk perception, little is known about it in the context of everyday life. Using the Experience Sampling Method (ESM), 94 part‐time students were prompted at random—via cellular telephones—to report on mood state and three emotions and to assess risk on thirty occasions during their working hours. The emotions—valence, arousal, and dominance—were measured using self‐assessment manikins (SAMs) (Bradley & Lang, 1994). Hierarchical linear models (HLM) revealed that mood state and emotions explained significant variance in risk perception. In addition, valence and arousal accounted for variance over and above “reason” (measured by severity and possibility of risks). Six risks were re‐assessed in a post‐experimental session and found to be lower than their real‐time counterparts. The study demonstrates the feasibility and value of collecting representative samples of data with simple technology. Evidence is also provided to demonstrate the statistical consistency of the HLM estimates. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

对低危前列腺癌治疗策略的再认识及思考

前列腺癌被认为是老年男性中最常见的恶性肿瘤。近年来,PSA筛查技术的广泛使用提高了前列腺癌的检出率。但许多低危的非致命性的前列腺癌患者却承受着过度治疗所带来的毒副反应风险。作者就当前用于减少低危前列腺癌过度治疗的新策略进行描述,如观察等待和主动监测策略,并指出癌症的过度治疗是很普遍的现象。未来需要发展更多的对恶性肿瘤进...