The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits

This paper re‐examines the commonly observed inverse relationship between perceived risk and perceived benefit. We propose that this relationship occurs because people rely on affect when judging the risk and benefit of specific hazards. Evidence supporting this proposal is obtained in two experimental studies. Study 1 investigated the inverse relationship between risk and benefit judgments under a time‐pressure condition designed to limit the use of analytic thought and enhance the reliance on affect. As expected, the inverse relationship was strengthened when time pressure was introduced. Study 2 tested and confirmed the hypothesis that providing information designed to alter the favorability of one's overall affective evaluation of an item (say nuclear power) would systematically change the risk and benefit judgments for that item. Both studies suggest that people seem prone to using an ‘affect heuristic’ which improves judgmental efficiency by deriving both risk and benefit evaluations from a common source—affective reactions to the stimulus item. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

风险决策中动态框架效应研究

风险决策的框架效应一直是理论研究和实践应用的焦点。该研究利用计算机联网模拟团队分布式动态风险决策任务,从三个方面（过去绩效,启动资金和目标设置）研究决策者在动态条件下风险偏好的变化规律。研究发现“目标设置”因素框架效应具有抑制作用,“启动资金”因素对个体和团队有不同影响。研究结果表明,风险敏感性同样适用于解释动态情境下的风险偏好。     

Disaster risk reduction: Psychological perspectives on preparedness

Facilitating people's ability to anticipate, prepare for and recover from disaster is an important component of the UNISDR strategy for disaster risk reduction. Following a discussion of the functional characteristics of preparedness, this paper first discusses how hazard characteristics and psychological constructs influence people's ability to anticipate uncertain future events. It then reviews how psychological theories (Health Belief Model, Protection Motivation Theory, PrE Theory, Theory of Planned Behaviour, Critical Awareness Theory, Social Marketing, Protective Action Decision Model, Social Capital, Community Engagement Theory and Social Identity Theory) can inform understanding of preparedness for likely and current hazard events. Discussion then then turns to applying concepts and theories to understanding preparedness for current disasters. The all-hazards and cross-cultural applicability of preparedness theory is discussed, as are a need for a critical appraisal of preparedness, its predictors, and the nature and development of the preparedness process and its application in facilitating effective intervention strategies.     

The development of violence from age 8 to 61

The main aim of this study is to investigate the development of violence from childhood to adulthood. In the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD), 411 London males have been followed up from age 8 to 48 in interviews, and from age 10 to 61 in criminal records; 19% were convicted for violence. There was a surprising amount of violence committed at older ages (40–61). The number of violence convictions was similar at ages 10–20, 21–39, and 40–61. There was considerable continuity in violent offending from ages 10–20 to 40–61. There was also continuity in self-reported violence from ages 15–18 to 43–48, and violence convictions were related to self-reported violence at all ages. The most important childhood risk factors for violence convictions were high daring or risk-taking, low verbal intelligence, a disrupted family, harsh parental discipline, high hyperactivity, and large family size. The extent to which these risk factors predicted violence at ages 40–61 was noteworthy. The “integrated cognitive antisocial potential (ICAP)” theory was proposed to explain the development of violence, and methods of preventing violence, targeting childhood risk factors, were reviewed.     

Violence Exposure and Sexual Risk Behaviors for African American Adolescent Girls: The Protective Role of Natural Mentorship and Organizational Religious Involvement

African American adolescent girls are at increased risk of being exposed to community violence and being diagnosed with a sexually transmitted infection. Fewer studies, however, have examined the protective roles of natural mentorship and organizational religious involvement as potential moderators that could lessen the effects of violence exposure on health risk behavior. Data from 273 African American ninth grade girls were used to test hypothesized independent and moderated‐moderation models. Results suggest that natural mentorship and religious involvement were protective for girls who reported at least one mentor and moderate to high levels of religious involvement. Our findings may be relevant for community stakeholders and organizations that directly interact with religious institutions and community programs that focus on outreach to African American adolescent girls.     

Too good to be true? Psychological responses to uncommon options in risk–reward environments

Risks and rewards, or payoffs and probabilities, are inversely related in many choice environments. We investigated people's psychological responses to uncommon combinations of risk and reward that deviate from learned regularities (e.g., options that offer a high payoff with an unusually high probability) as they evaluated risky options. In two experiments (N = 183), participants first priced monetary gambles drawn from environments in which risks and rewards were negatively correlated, positively correlated, or uncorrelated. In later trials, they evaluated gambles with uncommon combinations of risk and reward—that is, options that deviated from the respective environment's risk–reward structure. Pricing, response times, and (in Experiment 2) pupil dilation were recorded. In both experiments, participants took more time when responding to uncommon compared to foreseeable options or when the same options were presented in an uncorrelated risk–reward environment. This result was most pronounced when the uncommon gambles offered higher expected values compared to the other gambles in the set. Moreover, these uncommon, high‐value options were associated with an increase in pupil size. These results suggest that people's evaluations of risky options are based not only on the options' payoffs and probabilities but also on the extent to which they fit the risk–reward structure of the environment.     

“WHITE CRISIS” AND/AS “EXISTENTIAL RISK,” OR THE ENTANGLED APOCALYPTICISM OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

In this article, I present a critique of Robert Geraci's Apocalyptic artificial intelligence (AI) discourse, drawing attention to certain shortcomings which become apparent when the analytical lens shifts from religion to the race–religion nexus. Building on earlier work, I explore the phenomenon of existential risk associated with Apocalyptic AI in relation to “White Crisis,” a modern racial phenomenon with premodern religious origins. Adopting a critical race theoretical and decolonial perspective, I argue that all three phenomena are entangled and they should be understood as a strategy, albeit perhaps merely rhetorical, for maintaining white hegemony under nonwhite contestation. I further suggest that this claim can be shown to be supported by the disclosure of continuity through change in the long‐durée entanglement of race and religion associated with the establishment, maintenance, expansion, and refinement of the modern/colonial world system if and when such phenomena are understood as iterative shifts in a programmatic trajectory of domination which might usefully be framed as “algorithmic racism.”     

Efficacy of a Brief,School‐Based Bystander Bullying Intervention on High School Students' Alcohol Use

The authors examined the efficacy of a brief bystander bullying intervention on reducing alcohol use among high school students (N = 61). As hypothesized, high‐risk drinkers in the intervention group reported reduced drinking compared with control students at a 30‐day follow‐up.     

Impact of maternal adverse childhood experiences on child socioemotional function in rural Kenya: Mediating role of maternal mental health

Mothers in low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMIC) suffer heightened vulnerability for adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), which is exacerbated by the multitude of risk factors associated with poverty and may lead to increased risk of psychiatric disorder. The constellation of complex, co‐occurring biological, environmental, social, economic and psychological risk factors are in turn transmitted to her child, conferring vulnerability for adverse development. This study examines the association between maternal intra‐ and extra‐familial ACEs, maternal education and the mental health of her child, mediated by maternal mental health. Mother‐child dyads (n = 121) in Machakos, Kenya were examined cross‐sectionally using self‐report measures of ACEs, maternal mental health and child internalizing and externalizing mental health problems. The four models proposed to examine the relationship between intra‐ and extra‐familial maternal ACEs and child internalizing and externalizing problems demonstrated indirect pathways through maternal mental health. These effects were found to be conditional on levels of maternal education, which served as a protective factor at lower levels of maternal ACEs. These models demonstrate how the impact of ACEs persists across the lifespan resulting in a negative impact on maternal mental health and conferring further risk to subsequent generations. Elucidating the association between ACEs and subsequent intergenerational sequelae, especially in LMIC where risk is heightened, may improve targeted caregiver mental health programs for prevention and intervention.