Deviant peer affiliations,crime and substance use: a fixed effects regression analysis

The present study was designed to assess the influence of deviant peer affiliations on crime and substance use in adolescence/young adulthood. Data were used from a 21-year longitudinal study of health, development, and adjustment of a birth cohort of 1,265 New Zealand children. Annual assessments of deviant peer affiliations were obtained for the period from age 14–21 years, together with measures of psychosocial outcomes including, violent crime, property crime, alcohol abuse, cannabis abuse, and nicotine dependence. Affiliating with deviant peers was found to be significantly associated with each of these outcomes (p < .0001). Statistical control for confounding by both fixed and time dynamic factors reduced the strength of association between deviant peer affiliations and outcome measures. Nevertheless, deviant peer affiliations remained significantly associated (p < .0001) with all outcomes. For violent/property crime, cannabis and alcohol abuse there was significant evidence of age-related variation in the strength of association with deviant peer affiliations, with deviant peer affiliations having greater influence on younger participants (14–15 years) than older participants (20–21 years). These results suggest that deviant peer affiliations are associated with increased rates of a range of adjustment problems in adolescence/young adulthood with deviant peer affiliations being most influential at younger ages.     

Social Capital and Fear of Crime in Adolescence: A Multilevel Study

Hierarchical linear modeling was used to examine the relationships between social capital (at the individual, the neighborhood, and the regional levels) and adolescents' fear of crime, while controlling for the main individual (sociodemographics, television viewing, and bullying victimization), neighborhood (neighborhood size and aggregated victimization), and regional (crime rate and level of urbanization) variables. Data were analyzed using a three‐level model based on 22,639 15.7‐year‐old (SD = 0.67) students nested within 1081 neighborhoods and 19 Italian regions. The findings revealed that individual and contextual measures of social capital, modeled at the individual, neighborhood, and regional levels simultaneously, showed negative associations with adolescents' fear of crime. Males and participants with higher family affluence were less likely to feel fear of crime, whereas victimization, both at the individual and neighborhood levels, had a positive association with fear of crime. Strengths, limitations, and potential applications of the study are discussed.     

Testing Serial Crime Events for Randomness in Day‐of‐Week Patterns with Small Samples

This paper discusses exact tests for evaluating whether a series of offences are randomly distributed across days of the week for small sample sizes. The context is if an analyst has identified a series of related events, can the analyst determine if those events are randomly distributed with respect to the day‐of‐week given only a few offences? This paper develops exact reference distributions because the number of potential permutations is small, and this research finds that the likelihood ratio G‐test under realistic circumstances is quite powerful. Only three crimes need to occur on the same day of the week to reject the null. Several examples of using the test under realistic circumstances are illustrated; a series of thefts of catalytic converters where the exact dates are unknown, gang shootings, and arsons over a year. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variations in the Journey from Crime: Examples from Tiger Kidnapping

The current paper explores the journey offenders make after their offence through a series of tiger kidnap offences from the north and south of Ireland. Tiger kidnap is the abduction of a person of importance to a victim (generally a bank manager) in which that person is used as collateral until the victim complies with the requests of the offenders. Data were provided by the Police Service of Northern Ireland and An Garda Siochana. Three stages of the offences were highlighted: (1) the journey from the abduction location to the hostage location; (2) the abduction location to the robbery location; and (3) the robbery location to the money exchange location. Analysis found significant difference between offences in the north and south for stages 1 and 2 but not for stage 3. This is due to the type of offenders committing the offence, for example, offences in the north being committed by ex‐paramilitary offenders. Further study should focus on understanding complex tiger kidnap offences. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Efficacy of standard deviational ellipses in the application of criminal geographic profiling

The premise for this study is that the physical and cultural landscape has a deterministic effect on the location and distribution of serial crime. As a consequence, the distribution of linked crime scenes should exhibit a shape and orientation that is consistent with the underlying landscape. Geographic Profiling models that are able to account for these effects will provide more accurate results than those models that do not. Utilizing basic geographic principles of central tendency and spatial diffusion, this research first analyzed the output of circular and elliptical profile models generated for 30 serial burglaries (n = 164) and 67 serial robberies (n = 370) in Baltimore, Maryland between 1994 and 1997. A comparative analysis of the model output reveals that the Standard Deviational Ellipse is significantly (p = 0.000) better able to predict the home location of a serial offender than profiles generated from circles. Next, the relationship between the orientation of elliptical profiles and the mean linear orientation of the corresponding landscape was assessed to reveal a moderate but significant correlation (r = 0.511, p < 0.001). Together, these findings demonstrate that landscape does impact the locations of crime, and is a measurable parameter that can improve the efficacy of geographic profiling. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Born to kill? A critical evaluation of homicide adaptation theory

Given the enormous harm that results from the intentional killing of humans by other humans, the development of etiological theories of homicide is an important task. Homicide Adaptation Theory (HAT) is one such attempt to explain why homicide occurs. In short, the proponents of HAT propose that humans possess a number of specific, evolved adaptations for killing that have been selected for because they managed to successfully solve recurrent adaptive problems in our ancestral past. In this paper it is argued that, although evolutionary approaches can potentially advance our understanding of homicide in important ways, the available evidence does not support the existence of specific adaptations for killing in humans. Specifically, I argue that the proponents of HAT have not provided: (a) a thorough analysis of the evolutionary costs and benefits of killing; (b) evidence for ‘special design’ features of homicide; or (c) a systematic comparative appraisal of killing among different species. Given this lack of evidence, HAT suffers in terms of its explanatory worth, relative to alternative evolutionary hypotheses, such as the idea that homicide is a by-product of other evolved adaptations.     

Neighborhood violent crime and adolescent relationship aggression

Research has shown that neighborhoods play a role in the etiology of violence. However, few adolescent relationship aggression (ARA) studies have objective measures of violent neighborhoods. Drawing on a nationally representative sample of youth, this study examines the association between ARA and local levels of violent crime (measured using geocoded Uniform Crime Report data from each of the youths’ residential neighborhoods). Study analyses are based on survey data from 723 youth (ages 10–18) in current or recent dating relationships (351 males and 372 females) in the Survey on Teen Relationships and Intimate Violence (STRiV), a national representative household panel survey exploring interpersonal violence and related aggression among adolescents. About 19% of the sample reported ARA victimization in their most recent dating relationship (ARA perpetration was 17%). Neighborhood violent crime in the study (males living in 86.9 and females 99.8) was slightly lower than the national average of 100. With a broad national sample, 40% non-Whites, hypotheses guided by theories of neighborhood influence were tested. The study did not find an association between neighborhood violent crime and ARA victimization and perpetration, controlling for key demographic factors. The results, for a broad range of high- and low-crime neighborhoods, suggest that neighborhood violence does not seem to affect individual rates of ARA. The results suggest the ARA victimization and perpetration are perhaps ubiquitous and found both in low and high violent crime neighborhoods, suggesting that addressing local violent crime rates alone does not seem to be a path to also reducing ARA.     

Homicide and property crime: The relationships to anomie

Sociological explanations of crime have given considerable attention to Merton's anomie theory without systematically testing it. This paper tests Merton's theory through operationalizing anomie in terms of the degree of inequality in the distribution of income in each of the 50 states. A multiple regression analysis determines that while income inequality is significantly related to the rate of homicide, it is not significantly related to the rate of property crime. A preliminary cross-national analysis of 20 nations replicates this same general finding. The results suggest that a relatively large gap between material success and the means to success is likely to result in crimes of violence rather than property crime once we control the influence of other variables.     

An experimental investigation of the misinformation effect in crime-related amnesia claims

Research suggests that both internal (i.e., lying) and external (i.e., misinformation) factors can affect memory for a crime. We aimed to explore the effects of post-event misinformation on crime-related amnesia claims. We showed participants a mock crime and asked them to either simulate amnesia (simulators) or confess to it (confessors). Next, some participants were provided with misinformation. Finally, all participants were requested to genuinely recollect the crime. Overall, simulators reported less correct information than confessors. Moreover, these two groups were equally vulnerable to misinformation. In addition, exploratory analyses on strategies adopted by simulators revealed that those who previously, mostly omitted information while simulating amnesia exhibited the lowest amount of correct details. Simulators who instead used a mixed strategy disclosed more fabricated memory errors. Findings suggest that legal professionals and jurors should take into account that even offenders, irrespective of confessing or simulating memory loss for a crime, can be susceptible to post-event misinformation.     

Finding a serial burglar's home using distance decay and conditional origin–destination patterns: a test of empirical Bayes journey-to-crime estimation in the Hague

Can we tell where an offender lives from where he or she commits crimes? Journey-to-crime estimation is a tool that uses crime locations to tell us where to search for a serial offender's home. In this paper, we test a new method: empirical Bayes journey-to-crime estimation. It differs from previous methods because it utilises an ‘origin–destination’ rule in addition to the ‘distance decay’ rule that prior methods have used. In the new method, the profiler not only asks ‘what distances did previous offenders travel between their home and the crime scenes?’ but also ‘where did previous offenders live who offended at the locations included in the crime series I investigate right now?’. The new method could not only improve predictive accuracy, it could also reduce the traditional distinction between marauding and commuting offenders. Utilising the CrimeStat software, we apply the new method to 62 serial burglars in The Hague, The Netherlands, and show that the new method has higher predictive accuracy than methods that only exploit a distance decay rule. The new method not only improves the accuracy of predicting the homes of commuters—offenders who live outside their offending area—it also improves the search for marauders—offenders who live inside their offending area. After presenting an example of the application of the technique for prediction of a specific burglar, we discuss the limitations of the method and offer some suggestions for its future development. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.