Peak-End rule versus average utility: How utility aggregation affects evaluations of experiences

The “Peak-End rule” which averages only the most extreme (Peak) and the final (End) impressions, is often a better predictor of overall evaluations of experiences than average impressions. We investigate the similarity between the evaluations of experiences based on Peak-End and average impressions. We show that the use of the Peak-End rule in cross-experience comparisons can be compatible with preferences for experiences that are better on average. Two conditions are shown to make rankings of experiences similar regardless of the aggregation rule: (i) the individual heterogeneity in the perception of stimuli, and (ii) the persistence in impressions. We describe their effects theoretically, and obtain empirical estimates using data from previous research. Higher estimates are shown to increase correlational measures of association between the Peak-End and average impressions. The high association per se is shown to be not only a theoretical possibility, but an empirical fact.     

意见收敛定理与休谟问题

意见收敛定理是主观主义概率论的一条重要定理,它表明随着证据的增加,验前概率的主观性将被验后概率的客观性所代替。意见收敛定理被看作主观概率的动态合理性原则,因而被用来解决休谟问题,即归纳合理性问题。然而,哈金有说服力地表明,意见收敛定理证明的是条件概率Pr（h／e）的收敛,而不是验后概率Pre（h）的收敛。主观主义概率论暗中接受的一个等式是：Pre（h）=Pr（h／e）,通常称之为“条件化规则”。这样,归纳法的合理性问题变成条件化规则的合理性问题。为此,本文提出一个新的合理性原则,即“最少初始概率原则”,将它同“局部合理性”观念结合起来便可为条件化规则的合理性加以辩护。     

Sleeping beauty and the dynamics of de se beliefs

This paper examines three accounts of the sleeping beauty case: an account proposed by Adam Elga, an account proposed by David Lewis, and a third account defended in this paper. It provides two reasons for preferring the third account. First, this account does a good job of capturing the temporal continuity of our beliefs, while the accounts favored by Elga and Lewis do not. Second, Elga’s and Lewis’ treatments of the sleeping beauty case lead to highly counterintuitive consequences. The proposed account also leads to counterintuitive consequences, but they’re not as bad as those of Elga’s account, and no worse than those of Lewis’ account.

3～5岁幼儿在主题-规则冲突条件下的类比推理

本研究采用经典类比任务,考察了3～5岁幼儿在主题-规则冲突条件下类比推理发展的水平与特点.结果表明:(1)在无主题联想条件下,幼儿的单维类比推理在3～4岁迅速发展,4～5岁发展较为平缓,而双维类比推理在3～5岁仍处于较低水平.(2)在主题—规则冲突条件下,幼儿在单维类比推理中表现出一定的主题联想优势反应;幼儿在双维类比推理中表现出较强的主题联想优势反应,年龄特点为:3岁幼儿有较强的主题联想优势反应,4岁幼儿的主题联想优势反应明显下降,而5岁幼儿又表现出较强的主题联想优势反应.     

重视临床决策规则 因病施治

临床决策规则作为一种决策的工具日益受到重视和应用,依赖于大量原创性研究或循证医学的证据,旨在通过把临床资料数据的收集、整理和解释的过程标准化,指导选择诊疗手段或路线,降低临床决策中的不确定性,限制或减少不必要的检查和治疗,降低因不必要检查(测)和/或治疗所带来的医疗费用的支出,提高效率,使诊疗最优化,促进患者安全,维持或增进临床的后果。从临床决策规则的概念、存在的条件、研制方法、应用现状和未来发展方向和重点等几个方面加以论述。     

Probability and Evolution. Why the Probability Argument of Creationists is Wrong

Summary  Evolution is a time process. It proceeds in steps of definite length. The probability of each step is relatively high, so self organization of complex systems will be possible in finite time. Prerequisite for such a process is a selection rule, which certainly exists in evolution. Therefore, it would be wrong to calculate the probability of the formation of a complex system solely on the basis of the number of its components and as a momentary event.     

The probability of causal conditionals

Conditionals in natural language are central to reasoning and decision making. A theoretical proposal called the Ramsey test implies the conditional probability hypothesis: that the subjective probability of a natural language conditional, P(if p then q), is the conditional subjective probability, P(q/p). We report three experiments on causal indicative conditionals and related counterfactuals that support this hypothesis. We measured the probabilities people assigned to truth table cases, P(pq), P(p notq), P( notpq) and P( notp notq). From these ratings, we computed three independent predictors, P(p), P(q/p) and P(q/ notp), that we then entered into a regression equation with judged P(if p then q) as the dependent variable. In line with the conditional probability hypothesis, P(q/p) was by far the strongest predictor in our experiments. This result is inconsistent with the claim that causal conditionals are the material conditionals of elementary logic. Instead, it supports the Ramsey test hypothesis, implying that common processes underlie the use of conditionals in reasoning and judgments of conditional probability in decision making.     

论《管子》“德”“法”并重的治世思想

《管子》在强调＂以法治国＂的同时,又推崇＂守国之度,在饰四维＂的德教思想,而且二者相互为用,共同服务于以君主为核心的国家统治,表现出了齐法家学派独特的治国经民理论。     

迫选规则体验法: 检验规范性和描述性风险决策理论的新尝试

为寻求检验规范性和描述性风险决策理论的通用标准, 本研究以期望价值理论和齐当别抉择模型为例, 探讨了“迫选规则体验法”的适用性。被试为120名大学生, 实验任务为要求被试分别完成自主决策(采用未知规则: 真规则)和规则迫选决策(遵循给定规则: 假规则)任务, 并对决策后的情感和认可程度进行评定。研究发现: (1) 被试在自主决策条件下比在规则迫选条件下体验到的正性情感程度更强, 负性情感的程度更弱; (2) 被试在自主决策与规则迫选决策两种条件下做出的相同决策越多, 该被试对迫选规则更加认可并体验到的正性情感程度越强, 负性情感的程度越弱; (3) 与期望价值理论相比, 齐当别抉择模型可能符合更多决策者的实际决策规则。这些结果表明, 作为检验规范性和描述性风险决策理论的新尝试, 迫选规则体验法可能更有助于回答“决策者实际采用的决策规则是什么”的问题。     

关于条件推理的ERP研究

以抽象的条件命题作为实验材料,测定13名大学生在完成MP、AC、DA、MT推理（推测判断任务）和基线任务（记忆判断任务）时的事件相关电位（ERP）,初步探讨不同推理类型的脑内时程动态变化。这是使用ERP技术来研究条件推理脑机制的初步尝试。结果发现,五种任务所诱发的ERP早成分均不存在显著差异,在头皮前部的左外侧额区和左颞区,MP与DA推理与基线任务相比,均诱发一个更明显的晚期正成分（450-1100ms）,在右外侧额区则诱发一个更明显的晚期负成分（450~1100ms）;与之相反,MT与AC推理与基线任务相比,在左侧诱发一个更明显的晚期负成分（450~1100ms）,在右侧诱发一个更明显的晚期正成分（450~1100ms）,这一结果可能是由于左右脑在推理中的认知功能以及四种推理类型之间存在的差异所致,同时也表明推测过程主要激活了左右侧的前额部、颞叶等区域,基本支持Goel等人的双加工理论