Patterns of Preference for Numerical and Verbal Probabilities

We report results of an experiment designed to test a principle formulated by Budescu and Wallsten (1995), that, when communicating uncertainty information, mode choices are sensitive to sources and degrees of vagueness. In addition, we examined subjects’ efficacy in using such uncertainty information as a function of communication mode, source, and vagueness. In phase one of the experiment, subjects in a dyad used precise (numerical) or imprecise (verbal) expressions to communicate to a remote partner precise or vague uncertainty about the likelihoods of events. Spinner outcomes were used to generate precise uncertainty while answers to almanac questions were used to elicit vague uncertainty. In phase two, subjects saw the events paired with their partners’ estimates of similar events, and were asked to gamble on one event from each pair. Communication mode preferences were measured as the relative frequency that subjects chose the numerical mode to either express or receive uncertainty information regarding the events. Efficacy was measured as the relative frequency that subjects choose from the pair the event associated with the objectively more probable uncertainty expression. Underlying uncertainty interacted with direction of communication to affect preferences for modes of expression of the probabilities. Subjects preferred precise (numerical) information, especially for precise events (spinners). For vague events (questions), their preference for precise (numerical) information was stronger when receiving than when communicating information. Similar preferences were reflected in the efficiency of subsequent gamble decisions based on the probability estimates. Specifically, decisions were more efficacious (i.e. consistent with Expected Utility) when degrees of precision in events and estimates matched. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simple trade-off condition for additive multiattribute utility

We show that only two simple trade-off judgments are sufficient to determine whether the multiplicative multiattribute model assumes its additive form, regardless of the number of attributes in the model. This additivity condition offers a useful alternative to the test based on multiattribute lotteries commonly presented in textbooks. It can make the determination of additivity easier and more reliable. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reducing ethnic prejudice by public campaigns: an evaluation of a present and a new campaign

Most Western governments consider it their responsibility to counteract ethnic prejudice and discrimination, and they sometimes instigate persuasive communication programmes to achieve this aim. Generally, these campaigns do not have the desired effects possibly because designers of such persuasive communication programs have ignored relevant social‐psychological theoretical insights concerning prejudice. In this experiment, a present campaign (launched by the British Commission for Racial Equality) and a new campaign (developed by us) were evaluated. We hypothesized that our campaign would lead to lower levels of prejudice than the present campaign, because when designing our campaign relevant theoretical insights were more sufficiently taken into account. White participants (n=190) were randomly assigned to one of two experimental conditions or to the control condition. Those in the experimental conditions were exposed to either the present campaign or the new campaign before completing a questionnaire about ethnic minorities. Participants in the control condition were not exposed to a campaign. Results supported the hypothesis and some implications for designing campaigns are discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

个体解决三项系列问题的心理模型

该研究设计了2种实验条件,对360名6-19岁个体解决三项系列问题的能力发展进行了研究,旨在讨论个体解决三项系列问题的心理模型的发展问题,结果表明：(1)6-19岁个体对三项系列问题中有必然逻辑答案的题目的判断能力的发展速度比较平稳;(2)个体对三项系列问题中有必然逻辑答案的题目的判断能力先于对没有逻辑答案的题目,6-9岁个体对三项系列问题中没有必然逻辑答案的题目的判断能力的发展速度低于10岁以后的个体;(3)空间模型、语义模型、语义一空间混合模型和枢纽项比较模型是相互补充的,是在不同认知发展阶段依一定次序,按一定的阶段逐渐形成的,经历了5个不同的发展阶段,最终形成以枢纽项比较模型为核心、四种心理模型并存于个体的心理结构之中的复合模型。     

Self‐reported discipline among Swedish parents of preschool children

Swedish mothers and fathers from 200 volunteer families (target child aged 1–6 years) were asked what they would do in five situations which called for either control or discipline. The Parental Discipline Interview (PDI) was scored for 18 possible responses. Both mothers and fathers reported a variety of discipline strategies. Firm Command and Redefine were reported most often, while Threat and Physical Punishment were reported least often. Analysis of Variance (ANOVAs) showed higher frequencies of Reasoning and Ignore and lower frequencies of Redefine for mothers than for fathers. Regression analyses showed that mothers that had less traditional attitudes and young children predicted the preference of Physical Restraint, as well as Distraction. Ignore was predicted for older, less active children of less educated mothers. Fathers having younger, less active daughters predicted the preference of Redefine. Even if parents do not have Physical Punishment at their disposal following the ‘aga‐law’, the results showed that they have not abdicated their parental authority. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

透视医疗纠纷——辨析医患双方的权利和义务

发生医疗纠纷的一个重要原因是医患双方各自站在自己的立场上,维护自己的权利而产生的争端。由于我国卫生法制的滞后,患者被作为消费者伸张权利逐步成为趋势。但我国的医疗卫生事业的性质决定患者不能与消费者等同。医患双方应在更好的游戏规则下协调关系,减少纠纷。     

Constrained maximum likelihood estimation of two-level covariance structure model via EM type algorithms

In this paper, the constrained maximum likelihood estimation of a two-level covariance structure model with unbalanced designs is considered. The two-level model is reformulated as a single-level model by treating the group level latent random vectors as hypothetical missing-data. Then, the popular EM algorithm is extended to obtain the constrained maximum likelihood estimates. For general nonlinear constraints, the multiplier method is used at theM-step to find the constrained minimum of the conditional expectation. An accelerated EM gradient procedure is derived to handle linear constraints. The empirical performance of the proposed EM type algorithms is illustrated by some artifical and real examples.This research was supported by a Hong Kong UCG Earmarked Grant, CUHK 4026/97H. We are greatly indebted to D.E. Morisky and J.A. Stein for the use of their AIDS data in our example. We also thank the Editor, two anonymous reviewers, W.Y. Poon and H.T. Zhu for constructive suggestions and comments in improving the paper. The assistance of Michael K.H. Leung and Esther L.S. Tam is gratefully acknowledged.     

3～5岁幼儿反事实思维的发展研究

该研究采用结果和前提反事实推理任务,选取58名3-5岁幼儿为被试,考察了其反事实思维能力的发展。结果表明:1.3岁儿童在结果反事实推理中的得分显著低于4岁和5岁儿童,而4岁和5岁儿童的得分并不存在显著差异;2.幼儿的前提反事实推理因结构和方向不同而表现出不同的年龄变化趋势;3.幼儿产生的上行和下行反事实论断之间不存在显著差异。如成人一样,幼儿较少产生减法反事实。     

中小学生的情绪表达方式认知及其与同伴接纳的关系

本研究采用D.Matsumoto等编制的情绪表达规则评估问卷,探讨了237名中小学生情绪表达方式的认知发展,并通过同伴提名法选择了192名同伴关系良好和同伴关系不良的中学生为被试,探讨了情绪表达方式认知与同伴接纳的关系。结果表明:情绪类型与情境类型对中小学生多种情绪表达方式的认知具有主效应;中小学生的情绪表达向更具有社会效益方向发展,对自我和他人情绪表达存在认识分化,并随年龄而增加;同伴关系不良的中学生在情绪表达的认知上存在发展滞后。     

简论惠栋标帜"汉学"的易学特色

论文分"崇尚汉易家法"、"融通汉易师法"、"批评图书易学"种"学术价值与思想意义"四部分,论述了乾嘉著名易学大师惠栋的易学研究。论文指出:一、惠栋研究《周易》,重视汉易的家法,融通汉易师法,提倡复归汉代的象数易学,体现了他对传统易学的继承与超越;二、作为经学大师,惠栋企图借鉴汉代象数易学理论来指导易学研究,既是他诠释易学当代价值的认真尝试,也是他以独特的方式延续了象数易学的生命;三、惠栋梳理汉易各家源流、勾勒其象数学特点,祛除宋儒图书易学中的臆说的流弊,成为清代易学研究的一个成功典范,具有转变当时学风与确立十八世纪经学研究方向的意义。