企业新产品开发决策的不确定性和决策策略模拟实验研究

本文以企业新产品开发为决策内容,根据决策策略的规定性理论框架和先前调查所得决策案例,设计四种决策情景来代表四种不确定状态,通过５６名来自５个工厂的管理人员的现场模拟实验,着重研究这类决策的不确定性和决策策略之间关系。结果发现,在新产品开发的决策中,决策策略随不确定状态而改变;决策情景的不确定程度和决策策略没有严格的—一对应关系;在四类不确定决策情景下,都有管理人员采用混合型策略。这一发现同混合扫瞄策略观点和垃圾罐模型的思想相一致。并且,随着决策情景的不确定程度加大,决策时间逐渐延长。最后我们提出了应继续研究的课题。     

长沙市新型农村合作医疗现状与对策研究

新型农村合作医疗制度是我国农民的基本医疗保障制度,长沙市自2003开始试点,2006年全面推行,农民参合率达到84．6％,有效保障了农民能享有基本医疗卫生保健服务。通过对长沙2006年四县五区的新型农村合作医疗工作进行调查,分析了新型农村合作医疗存在的问题,提出了进一步改进的政策方案。     

An analysis of daily report cards and parent-managed privileges in the improvement of adolescents' classroom performance

A daily report-card system, involving home privileges administered by parents, was developed for use with "problem" junior-high students. In Experiment I, when home privileges and parent praise were contingent on improved school conduct, classwork, daily grades, and teacher satisfaction, the school performance of three students improved considerably. In Experiment II, a similar report-card system was employed with two additional students, except only parent praise was contingent on improved school performance. Under these conditions, one of the students did not bring the report card home, and class performance did not improve until contingent home privileges were added. The school performance of the second student improved with the card and praise alone. However, there appeared to be a slow decline of classwork performance over time. For Experiment III, an instructional manual, describing the report-card program, was written for school guidance counsellors. Two guidance counsellors read the program, used it with one student each, and found that the school performance of both students improved. These results suggest that the daily report-card program with home consequences administered by parents can improve the school performance of, and teacher satisfaction about, students having considerable difficulty in school.     

Frequency of measurement and data utilization as factors in standardized behavioral assessment of academic skill

A study was conducted to investigate the effects on students' spelling achievement of variations in teacher assessment procedures. Teachers measured student spelling performance at a constant level of task difficulty using different measurement frequencies and different rules to interpret the data. Each teacher wrote two consecutive 3-week goals for improved spelling performance for two sets of 100 spelling words and then measured student performance either daily or weekly by dictating randomly selected words from each 100-word list. Teachers were trained to apply either a predetermined set of decision rules or their own judgment to the data to decide if the spelling program they had implemented for the student was effective. Ineffective programs were changed or modified. Results indicated that daily measurement was significantly more effective than weekly measurement in increasing spelling achievement and that, under certain conditions, decision rules were more effective than teacher judgment in determining when to make program changes or modifications.This research was conducted pursuant to Contract 300-77-0491 between the Bureau of Education for the Handicapped (now called Special Education Programs) and the University of Minnesota Institute for Research on Learning Disabilities.     

THE RELIGIOUS DIMENSIONS OF THE BIOLOGICAL NARRATIVE

Abstract. A cell/molecular biologist challenges the thesis that science and religion are two ways of experiencing and interpreting the world and explores instead the possible ways that the modern biological worldview might serve as a resource for religious perspectives. Three concepts—meaning, valuation, and purpose—are argued to be central to the entire biological enterprise, and the continuation of this enterprise is regarded as a sacred religious trust.     

NATURE AS THE IMAGE OF GOD: REFLECTIONS ON THE SIGNS OF THE SACRED

Abstract. This is a brief survey of aspects of the modern scientific view of nature to see if implied therein are signs or traces of the sacred–as early religious apprehension surely supposed. Nature's power and order are discussed as is the strange dialectic of death and life, evident in modern biology as it also is in all early religion.     

Is the three-term contingency trial a predictor of effective instruction?

Two experiments are reported which test the effect of increased three-term contingency trials on students' correct and incorrect math responses. Experiment 1 included two junior high school students in need of special instruction in mathematics while in Experiment 2 two other students with similar instructional needs from the same classroom were studied. In the first experiment the increased rate of presentation (3 times the baseline rate) was done without regard to whether the antecedent teacher presentations to the student were presented vocally or in written form; in the second experiment, the rates of presentation were systematically rotated across written and vocal presentations. The dependent variables were rate per minute of correct and incorrect responses of students (vocal or written). The experiments used designs incorporating features of the multiple baseline (Students A and B) and reversal (Students B, C, and D). The data showed that increasing the number of three-term trials increased correct rates while incorrect rates remained relatively low. The second experiment replicated these findings with two other students and found that the treatment effect occurred independently with vocal and written antecedents when each was isolated. The results warrant further research to test whether or not rates of presentation of three-term contingency trials are predictors of effective instruction.     

新世纪综合性大学医学教育的发展方向与对策

新世纪综合性大学医学教育如何发展,如何建设,如何利用好多学科的优势是我国一些高等学校在联合、合并后亟需解决的问题。结合我校的实际情况,从这方面做了一些探索,主要论述了新世纪医学教育的发展趋势和走向,以及办好综合性大学医学教育所采取的对策和思路。     

以新型农村合作医疗为平台加强农村妇幼保健工作

住院分娩是否应该纳入新型农村合作医疗的补偿范围,目前在学术界和实践中仍然存在争议。以陕西省镇安县为案例,从公共政策分析的角度,通过对该县定额住院分娩制度运行效果的分析,论证了把住院分娩纳入合作医疗补偿范围的积极意义,同时针对该制度运行过程中出现的问题提出了相应的政策建议。     

新一代测验理论-认知诊断理论的源起与特征

认知诊断理论被视为新一代测验理论的核心,是认知心理学与现代测量学相结合的产物。对认知诊断的研究已成为当前国外心理学研究的一个重要热点,并引起国内学者的广泛关注。本文从认知诊断的源起、概念、特征,及研究的基础、框架、意义和难点等七个方面对认知诊断的理论与技术作了一个简要述评,以期推进我国心理学界认知诊断的研究工作。