Why Don't Continents Move? Why Don't People Change?

People don't change because they can't, don't want to, don't know how, or don't know what to change. The transtheoretical model provides an integ-rative model for understanding reasons for not changing, as well as readiness to change. Stages and levels of change guide therapists in their work in helping clients change. Clients in the precontemplative stage typically cannot change without special help. Those in the contemplation stage are not sure they want to change. Those in the preparation stage are afraid they do not know how to successfully change. The levels of change help guide therapists and clients on what to change.     

Discovery algorithms for hierarchical relations

Two algorithms based on a latent class model are presented for discovering hierarchical relations that exist among a set ofK dichotomous items. The two algorithms, stepwise forward selection and backward elimination, incorporate statistical criteria for selecting (or deleting) 0–1 response pattern vectors to form the subset of the total possible 2 ^k vectors that uniquely describe the hierarchy. The performances of the algorithms are compared, using computer-constructed data, with those of three competing deterministic approaches based on ordering theory and the calculation of Phi/Phi-max coefficients. The discovery algorithms are also demonstrated on real data sets investigated in the literature.     

Values education in a democratic society

A democratic society requires a degree of consensus on values. But it is argued that the model of values education as the transmission of certain predetermined values is inadequate in a democracy, since for several reasons the transmission of predetermined values can itself be undemocratic. Education for individual autonomy in matters of values is also, by itself, inadequate. Each generation needs the resources by which it can work out its own interpretation of democratic values. What is also needed, then, is an education in a common language of discourse — which can be drawn primarily from philosophy — which will facilitate public debate.     

Data, model, conclusion, doing it again

This paper explores the robustness of conclusions from a statistical model against variations in model choice (rather than variations in random sampling and random assignment to treatments, which are the usual variations covered by inferential statistics). After the problem formulation in section 1, section 2 presents an example from Box and Tiao in which variation in parent distribution is modeled for a one sample location problem. An adaptive Bayesian procedure permits to use a weighted mixture of parent distributions rather than choosing just one, such as a normal or a uniform distribution.In section 3 similar considerations are applied to an event history model for the influence of education and gender on age at first marriage, but here the conclusions are hardly influenced by the choice of the duration distribution. In section 4 a brief discussion of model choice in factor analysis and structural equation models is followed by a more elaborate treatment of the choice of integer valued slopes for item response functions in the OPLM model which is an extension of the Rasch model. A modest simulation study suggests that Adaptive Bayesian Modeling with a mixture of sets of slopes works better than fixing one set of postulated slopes.The paper concludes with some remarks on the roles and sources of prior distributions followed by a short epilogue which argues that simultaneous consideration of a class of models for the same data is sometimes superior to exclusively analyzing the data under one specific model chosen from such a class.This article is based on the Presidential Address Ivo W. Molenaar gave on June 20, 1998 at the 1998 Annual Meeting of the Psychometric Society held at the University of Illinois in Champaign, Illinois. Thanks is given to John Wiley & Sons and George C. Tiao for granting permission to reprint three figures from the book George C. Tiao wrote with George E. P. Box titled Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis.—EditorThanks are due to Anne Boomsma, Jeffrey Hoogland, Mark Huisman, Tom Snijders, Marijtje Van Duijn, and Norman Verhelst for suggesting improvements and/or assisting with data analyses.     

Neuroticism,coping and change in MCMI-II clinical syndromes: test of a mediator model

The aim of the study was to examine prospectively whether coping mediated the relation between Neuroticism and change in different clinical mental syndromes. Assessments were conducted with 154 former psychiatric outpatients six and seven years after their initial contact with an outpatient clinic. Dispositional coping mediated the relation between Neuroticism and change in four of the nine clinical scales of the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory (MCMI-II) (Millon, 1987). High Neuroticism led to coping strategies of disengagement and the venting of emotions and to a lack of problem-focused coping, which in turn translated into a relative increase on the MCMI-II scales. The mediator model of coping was found to apply to the MCMI-II scales "somatoform disorder’, ‘dysthymia’, ‘alcohol dependence’ and ‘thought disorder’. Results are discussed under the perspective of an integration of the positions of the transactional theory of stress and personality psychology. .     

Optimal sequential designs for on-line item estimation

Replenishing item pools for on-line ability testing requires innovative and efficient data collection designs. By generating localD-optimal designs for selecting individual examinees, and consistently estimating item parameters in the presence of error in the design points, sequential procedures are efficient for on-line item calibration. The estimating error in the on-line ability values is accounted for with an item parameter estimate studied by Stefanski and Carroll. LocallyD-optimaln-point designs are derived using the branch-and-bound algorithm of Welch. In simulations, the overall sequential designs appear to be considerably more efficient than random seeding of items.This report was prepared under the Navy Manpower, Personnel, and Training R&D Program of the Office of the Chief of Naval Research under Contract N00014-87-0696. The authors wish to acknowledge the valuable advice and consultation given by Ronald Armstrong, Charles Davis, Bradford Sympson, Zhaobo Wang, Ing-Long Wu and three anonymous reviewers.     

The relation of family cohesion to marital adjustment

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between family cohesion and marital adjustment. The sample consisted of 70 married graduate students from the State University of New York at Buffalo. The Family Adaptability and Cohesion Evaluation Scale was used to measure family cohesion. The Dyadic Adjustment Scale was used to measure marital adjustment. The Demographic Data Sheet was used for demographic characteristics. Overall, the result of ANOVA with planned comparison revealed that high marital adjustment was not only associated with a moderate level of family cohesion but also associated with a high level of family cohesion.This article is based on the first author's doctoral dissertation at State University of New York at Buffalo.     

‘So you did what you wanted then’: Discourse analysis,personal agency,and psychotherapy

This paper explores issues concerning personal agency in discursive psychology and discourse analysis, with a particular emphasis on agency in terms of motivational accounts of the person. Issues are discussed in relation to the efficacy, acceptability, and accessibility of discourse analytic research for the practising psychotherapist. We suggest that such an approach may raise problems in four areas. First, we argue that without explicit theorization of the subject as language user, discourse analysis may be vulnerable to the charge of determinism. Second, theorization of the subject as language user may be required to account successfully for individual consistency and continuity of identity. Third, although claiming to critique commonsense notions of subjectivity, implicit dualist assumptions facilitate a reading of discursive psychology that is compatible with a motivational model of the person. Finally, we argue that discursive psychology itself implies a particular model of the strategically motivated language user. We conclude that, although these issues require clarification, discursive psychology and discourse analysis have much to offer psychotherapy research.     

Child protection investigations: Discourse analysis and the management of incommensurability

This paper asks whether discourse analytic approaches in social psychology have yet produced methodologies adequate to the investigation of institutional ‘gaze’. Institutional language has been explored to the extent that state agencies construct members of the public by speaking about them in particular ways. This has often provided insight into the co-existence and competition of incommensurable discourses. However, studies of representation in the sense of speaking for have been notably absent from social psychology. It is argued that this aspect of discourse is a vital component in the study of contemporary governmental multi-agency strategy in the area of child protection, where recent legislation and policy aims at the coordination of incommensurable discourses. A methodology for studying this strategy is outlined through an account of the actor network approach in science studies, accounts of the State under the post-modern condition, and analyses of sections of interviews with social workers.     

Genetic counseling for a family with two distinct anomalies: A case report of a neural tube defect and 5p- syndrome in a fetus

A couple presented for genetic counseling because of an elevated maternal serum alpha fetoprotein. Ultrasound examination revealed the presence of a neural tube defect. The couple declined an amniocentesis, but chose serial ultrasound evaluations instead. Ultrasounds eventually identified microcephaly, but the couple continued to decline amniocentesis. After the child's birth, the diagnosis of 5p- syndrome was made. The couple's decision not to have an amniocentesis allowed the family their right to autonomy; however, prenatal chromosome analysis would have provided this couple with a great deal more prognostic information. We discuss the conflict between a counselor's duty to respect a client's freedom vs. duty to care for a client's welfare. We address issues of nondirective counseling and the need for more studies looking at the decision-making process in prenatal diagnosis.