Application of model-selection criteria to some problems in multivariate analysis

A review of model-selection criteria is presented, with a view toward showing their similarities. It is suggested that some problems treated by sequences of hypothesis tests may be more expeditiously treated by the application of model-selection criteria. Consideration is given to application of model-selection criteria to some problems of multivariate analysis, especially the clustering of variables, factor analysis and, more generally, describing a complex of variables.     

Path analysis of variables affecting 36-month outcome in a population of multi-risk children

Path analysis was employed with data collected during a longitudinal neuro-behavioral follow-up study of multi-risk children. The relative impact of maternal medical history, drug abuse, and day-to-day functioning during pregnancy on the course of labor and delivery and on neonatal outcome was examined. The subsequent impact of each of these sets of variables on the child's developmental status at 36 months was then explored. An additional factor, which incorporated postnatal environmental and family functioning characteristics, was also included in the model. Maternal drug abuse had a significant effect on the course of labor and delivery, due in part to the impact of maternal drug abuse on family functioning. The results indicate that in this multi-risk population, environmental and psychosocial variables are important predictors of the child's developmental prospects.     

The fallacy of fallacies

Several of the so-called fallacies in Aristotle are not in fact mistaken inference-types, but mistakes or breaches of rules in the questioning games which were practiced in the Academy and in the Lyceum. Hence the entire Aristotelian theory of fallacies ought to be studied by reference to the author's interrogative model of inquiry, based on his theory of questions and answers, rather than as a part of the theory of inference. Most of the fallacies mentioned by Aristotle can in fact be diagnosed by means of the interrogative model, including petitio principii, multiple questions, babbling, etc., and so can Aristotle's alleged anticipation of the fallacy of argumentum ad hominem. The entire Aristotelian conception of inquiry is an interrogative one. Deductive conclusions caught Aristotle's attention in the form of answers that every rational interlocutor must give, assuming only his own earlier answers. Several features of Aristotle's methodology can be understood by means of the interrogative model, including the role of endoxa in it. Theoretically, there is also considerable leeway as to whether fallacies are conceived of as mistakes in questioning or as breaches of the rules that govern questioning games.     

A stochastic growth model applied to repeated tests of academic knowledge

In the course of the medical program at the University of Limburg, students complete a total of 24 progress tests, consisting of items drawn from a constant itembank. A model is presented for the growth of knowledge reflected by these results. The Rasch model is used as a starting point, but both ability and difficulty parameters are taken to be random, and moreover the logistic distribution is replaced by the normal. Both individual and group abilities are estimated and explained through simple linear regression. Application to real data shows that the model fits very well.     

Maximum likelihood additivity analysis

A maximum likelihood estimation procedure was developed to fit unweighted and weighted additive models to conjoint data obtained by the categorical rating, the pair comparison or the directional ranking method. The scoring algorithm used to fit the models was found to be both reliable and efficient, and the program MAXADD is capable of handling up to 300 parameters to be estimated. Practical uses of the procedure are reported to demonstrate various advantages of the procedure as a statistical method.The research reported here was supported by Grant A6394 to the author from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. Portions of this research were presented at the Psychometric Society meeting in Iowa City, Iowa, in May, 1980.Thanks are due to Jim Ramsay, Justine Sergent and anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.Two MAXADD programs which perform the computations discussed in this paper may be obtained from the author.     

Comparing latent distributions

We consider the problem of comparingm latent population distributions when the observed values are scores on a test battery with binary items. The latent densities are assumed to be normal densities, and we consider a test for equality of the means as well as a test equality of the variances. In addition, we consider a longitudinal model, where the test battery has been applied to the same individuals at different points in time. This model allows for correlations between the latent variable at different time points, and methods are discussed for estimating the correlation coefficient.This work was supported in part by a grant from the Danish Social Science Research Council.     

Statistical inference for false positive and false negative error rates in mastery testing

This paper describes an asymptotic inferential procedure for the estimates of the false positive and false negative error rates. Formulas and tables are described for the computations of the standard errors. A simulation study indicates that the asymptotic standard errors may be used even with samples of 25 cases as long as the Kuder-Richardson Formula 21 reliability is reasonably large. Otherwise, a large sample would be required.This work was performed pursuant to Grant No NIE-G-78-0087 with the National Institute of Education, Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Huynh Huynh, Principal Investigator. Points of view or opinions stated do not necessarily reflect NIE position or policy and no official endorsement should be inferred. The editorial assistance of Joseph C. Saunders is gratefully acknowledged.     

Working on Gender as a Gender-Nonconformist

No abstract available for this article.     

Imitation and novelty in product development

A human stigmergy model of product development through a series of incremental novelties and imitations is obtained by observing the isomorphism between solution trees generated by groups of humans participating in online games like Foldit, self-organizing topics in online learning systems, product evolution through a combination of innovation and imitation in the cell phone industry, and social networks formed over the past 40 years in creation of the Boston biotech commons. The model incorporates two very simple rules: (1) preferential attachment, and (2) the combination of existing product designs into a single design. A computer model used to simulate the model produces product evolution networks isomorphic to observed solution trees and product evolution trees. Additionally, industries with a high degree of novelty produce a product evolution network with scale-free and betweenness centrality structure.