临床决策偏差中的心理效应

临床决策是临床工作的核心。科学正确的临床决策是保证医疗服务质量的重要环节。现代心理学对临床决策的研究发现,由于决策双思维系统运转模式的存在,一些心理效应常常会导致临床决策出现系统性偏差或失误,这些心理效应包括易得性、拆分效应、锚定效应、框架效应、单次-重复博弈效应和后见之明效应等。医务人员了解这些心理效应的表现,熟悉它们对临床决策的潜在影响,并在进行重大临床决策时有效避免之,将会显著提升临床决策质量。     

Behavioural Investigative Advice: Assistance to Investigative Decision‐making in Difficult‐to‐detect Murder

This paper considers the role of a Behavioural Investigative Adviser (BIA) in assisting with the decision‐making of a Senior Investigating Officer (SIO) in difficult‐to‐detect murder investigations. It outlines the need for transparent evidence‐based decision‐making from both the SIO and the BIA. The paper then details a piece of relevant, applied research that can assist in this end. The research utilised a pragmatic psychology approach to analyse 312 detected murder cases from the Serious Crime Analysis Section database. Some significant patterns relating what is known about the offence at different stages of an investigation and inferences regarding the offender were found, indicating that certain offence information can lead to some reliable predictions and these can be refined as more information becomes available. However, the findings also indicate that base rate frequencies and a ‘best‐guess’ methodology may be as, if not more, useful than more complex statistical techniques when providing advice to investigations. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Transformative Effects of Stigma: Coping Strategies as Meaning‐Making Efforts for Immigrants Living in Greece

The present article examines the strategies that immigrants living in Greece use to cope with stigma that arises in their interaction with both Greek society and their communities of origin. Drawing on interviews and focus groups conducted with immigrants from a variety of countries, a dialogical analysis illuminates the ways in which immigrants actively negotiate stigmatizing perspectives and transform themselves. Strategies include the deployment of social categories such as those of ‘human being’ and ‘crazy’ person, and concepts such as those of ‘lawfulness’ and ‘fate’. These were used to construct meanings of equality and inclusion into society, to deny responsibility for stigma and to discredit stigma as absurd. They enabled participants to see themselves as proud, equal, self‐dependent individuals who plan actions for social change. The article suggests that coping with stigma should not only be understood in terms of stress regulation, leading to positive or negative outcomes, as suggested by current literature, but as a meaning‐making effort, through which individuals transform the way they see themselves and act within their world. A meaning‐making approach moves away from individualistic, outcome‐oriented explanations to a socially situated perspective on stigma that studies the processes through which social meanings are subjectively perceived as stigmatizing and are used to challenge stigma. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combining Information for Quantitative Decision‐making in Drug Development

Taking decisions during the development of a new drug requires combining many and varying pieces of information. The interconnections between these different pieces of information are often only partially known and in some cases merely conjectured. Despite this uncertainty, decisions must be taken – often with regard to the balance of risk and benefit – in order to make progress. A clear, consistent and efficient methodology for describing the structure of a project and the comprehensive state of knowledge at any point in time is required in order to add transparency to the decision process. A viable methodology must allow for a natural characterization of the uncertainty inherent in the drug development process and a relatively easy implementation. We present a possible solution that satisfies these requirements. The foundation of the proposed approach is based on a beta‐binomial update mechanism well known in Bayesian statistics. This work provides a consistent framework for solving hierarchical multicriteria decision problems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

心理理论发展研究的一种新范式——矩阵博弈

心理理论指对他人心理状态的理解,是一种毕生发展的能力。但之前的研究在研究对象和研究内容上存在一些缺陷。本文介绍了一种新范式——矩阵博弈(matrix game),对利用其研究心理理论进行了可行性分析,同时指出了两者相结合的理论基础和实证证据。未来研究可利用矩阵博弈来研究更广年龄范围人群心理理论的发展轨迹,并借助fMRI等技术来测查矩阵博弈中心理理论推理的脑机制。     

The Job Demands and Resources Decision Making (JD-R-DM) Model

This study explores the effects of nurses’ daily job characteristics (i.e., job demands and resources) and general work engagement on their daily decision making (i.e., analytical and intuitive) and consequently their daily performance (i.e., task and contextual). Participants completed a baseline questionnaire and a diary for five consecutive days. Results reveal a positive influence of the job demands “work pressure” and “predictability” on analytical decision making. In turn, analytical decision making promotes task performance. Work pressure also negatively influences intuitive decision making which, in turn, stimulates task and contextual performance. However, the job resource (i.e., autonomy) had a nonsignificant relationship with decision making. General work engagement had positive effects on analytical decision making and moderated the relationship between intuitive decision making and contextual performance. For those high on work engagement, the relation was stronger compared to their counterparts low on work engagement. Results corroborate that expanding and testing decision-making theories can increase understanding on how the work environment and engagement influence employee decision making and performance.     

Lexical and sublexical processes in the perception of transposed-letter anagrams

Evidence from priming and lexical decision tasks suggests that nonwords created by transposing adjacent letter pairs (TL nonwords) are very effective in activating lexical representations of their base words, because the process of orthographic matching tolerates minor changes in letter position. However, this account disregards the possible role of sublexical processing in reading. TL nonwords are perceptually ambiguous, with lexical and sublexical processing giving rise to conflicting interpretations. The consequences of this ambiguity were investigated in a lexical decision experiment with primes that were either high or low bigram frequency TL versions of target words. Priming effects were much larger for low BF primes (e.g., pucnh–PUNCH) than for high BF primes (e.g., panit–PAINT). This finding is interpreted as evidence that lexical activation can be inhibited by competing output resulting from sublexical processing of TL letter string. We conclude that phonological processing is an important determinant of responses to TL stimuli, and we consider how this interpretation might be accommodated within the dual-route cascaded (DRC) model of word recognition.     

Is luck on my side? Optimism,pessimism, and ambiguity aversion

The influences of optimism and pessimism on ambiguity aversion were investigated in two tasks that manipulated the presence or absence of a potentially competitive experimenter. A total of 112 participants chose which option—ambiguous or known-risk—they preferred in the two slightly differing Ellsberg urns tasks. Optimism was measured using the Extended Life Orientation Test (ELOT). Highly optimistic people showed significantly less ambiguity aversion than less optimistic people when information was given that the number of balls was randomly determined. This pattern was present but less pronounced in the condition when the composition of the ambiguous urn could be interpreted as being influenced (rigged) by the experimenter. Pessimism was uninfluential. Perceptions of the situation, especially the degree of trust in the experimenter, were significantly influenced by the participants' optimism. People who do not have highly optimistic personalities tend to shy away from choosing ambiguous options. When ambiguity is clear, and trust issues are removed, people's optimistic outlook influences their degree of ambiguity aversion and thus their decisions.     

Phonological neighbourhood spread facilitates lexical decisions

In visual word recognition, words with many phonological neighbours are processed more rapidly than are those with few neighbours. The research reported here tested whether the distribution of phonological neighbours across phoneme positions influences lexical decisions. The results indicate that participants responded more rapidly to words where all phoneme positions can be changed to form a neighbour than they did to those where only a limited number of phoneme positions can be changed to form a neighbour. It is argued that this distribution effect arises because of differences between the two groups of words in how they overlap with their neighbours.     

On the role of the upper part of words in lexical access: Evidence with masked priming

More than 100 years ago, Huey (1908/1968) indicated that the upper part of words was more relevant for perception than the lower part. Here we examined whether mutilated words, in their upper/lower portions (e.g., ), can automatically access their word units in the mental lexicon. To that end, we conducted four masked repetition priming experiments with the lexical decision task. Results showed that mutilated primes produced a sizeable masked repetition priming effect. Furthermore, the magnitude of the masked repetition priming effect was greater when the upper part of the primes was preserved than when the lower portion was preserved—this was the case not only when the mutilated words were presented in lower case but also when the mutilated words were presented in upper case. Taken together, these findings suggest that the front-end of computational models of visual-word recognition should be modified to provide a more realistic account at the level of letter features.