Are We All Overconfident in the Long Run? Evidence from One Million Marathon Participants

In this project, we measured overconfidence in a large, heterogeneous sample making familiar, repeated choices in a natural environment that provided direct feedback. Specifically, in study 1, we elicited predictions of own finishing time among participants of the 2012 Warsaw Marathon. The participants' prediction errors were highly correlated with the change in pace over the course of the run: overly optimistic forecasters slowed down more in the second half. In study 2, we consequently took this slowdown as a proxy for overconfidence and used existing field data of one million participants in several large marathons for which split times are available (but own predictions are not). Both studies indicate that men as well as the youngest and oldest participants tend to be more confident. In study 2, we were able to investigate national and cultural dimensions. We found confirmation of previously reported findings of relative overconfidence in Asians. Additionally, we show some largely novel results, in particular that relatively conservative societies tend to be relatively overconfident. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of acculturation and ethnic identification on consumer disidentification and consumption: An investigation of U.S. Hispanics

This study examines the antecedents and outcomes of consumer disidentification (CDI) among immigrants and the role that cultural change plays in affecting this consumer orientation. Specifically, it explores the effect of acculturation and ethnic identification on host nation sentiments (i.e., host nation identification, disidentification, and affinity) and how the latter influence CDI. Then, it assesses the effect of CDI on consumer behaviors including product quality judgments and willingness to buy products originating in the host country. Survey data from a convenience sample of 555 adults of Cuban and Puerto Rican origin, who live in the USA, confirm that disidentification with the host nation is the basis of CDI. Acculturation is the process through which disidentification with the host nation and the resulting CDI can be mitigated. However, ethnic identification shows inconsistencies in affecting consumers' sentiments toward the host nation and CDI. While CDI is negatively related to consumers' willingness to buy domestic products, it does not seem to affect consumers' willingness to buy domestic products through their product quality judgments. Practically, this study facilitates strategic marketing decisions that are related to the presentation of country‐of‐origin (COO) product attributes in marketing communication and branding campaigns. This study is one of the few empirical studies on CDI, and it focuses on COO effects of domestic rather than foreign products among subcultures within national boundaries. Understanding COO effects among subnational cultural consumers is of primary importance given the ever‐increasing ethnic diversification of consumer markets.     

Individual,Community, and National Resilience in Peace Time and in the Face of Terror: A Longitudinal Study

The present paper is based on thrice-repeated measures. The sample constituted 561 Jewish Israeli adults who experienced these terror attacks. The study examined individual, community and national resilience and their associations with resilience-promoting factors (sense of coherence, social support, and self-efficacy); as well as resilience-suppressing factors (distress symptoms, sense of danger, and exposure). Results indicated that resilience scores were quite stable across the three repeated measures, whereas sense of coherence, distress symptoms, sense of danger, and exposure significantly changed across the three repeated measures. Sense of coherence was the best predictor for individual, community, and national resilience.     

The role of secondary covariates when estimating latent trait population distributions

The U.S. National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), and the U.S. Adult Literacy Survey collect probability samples of students (or adults) who are administered brief examinations in subject areas such as mathematics and reading (cognitive variables), along with background demographic (primary) and educational environment (secondary) questions. The demographic questions are used in the primary reporting, while the numerous explanatory secondary variables, or covariates, are only directly utilized in subsequent secondary analyses. The covariates are also used indirectly to create the plausible values (multiple imputations) that are an integral part of analyses because of the use of sparse matrix sampling of cognitive items. The improvement in the precision of the primary reporting due to the inclusion of the covariates is assessed here and contrasted with the precision of reporting using plausible values created using only the primary demographic variables.The results demonstrate that the improvement in precision depends on the matrix sampling designs for the cognitive assessments. The improvements range from essentially none for the most common designs, to moderate for some less common designs. Consequently, two potential changes in the reporting procedures that could improve the statistical and operational efficiency of primary reporting are (a) eliminate or reduce the collection of covariates and increase the number of cognitive items, (b) to avoid delays, eliminate the covariates from the creation of plausible values used for the primary reports, but include them later when creating public-use files for secondary analyses. The potential improvements in statistical and operational efficiency must be weighed against the intrinsic interest in the covariates, and the potential for small discrepancies in the primary and secondary reporting.Thanks to Donald Rubin, Robert Mislevy, and John Barnard for their helpful comments and computing assistance. This work was supported by NCES Grant 84.902B980011.     

The fear of confession? High Catholic collective narcissism and low secure identification with Catholics predict increased pedophilia myth acceptance

Over the past 30 years, the Catholic Church has been rocked by a series of child sexual abuse scandals worldwide. Some of the religious officials suggested that the children are partly to blame for being sexually abused by priests. We assumed that such convictions (i.e., pedophilia myth acceptance) should be associated with a defensive commitment to one's religious group, captured by religious collective narcissism. In two studies conducted among Polish participants (Study 1, longitudinal, n = 719; Study 2, cross-sectional, n = 357), we found that pedophilia myth acceptance was positively predicted by Catholic narcissism but negatively by secure identification with Catholics. We additionally demonstrated that the effect of Catholic narcissism on pedophilia myth acceptance was mediated by a siege mentality with respect to the religious in-group. We discuss the role of different types of group commitment in predicting in-group criticism and prejudice against underaged victims of sexual abuse.     

Monarchism,national identity and social representations of history in Indonesia: Intersections of the local and national in the sultanates of Yogyakarta and Surakarta

In the young state of Indonesia, old local authorities like sultanates have reasserted themselves. This reemergence of localized authority does not necessarily conflict with nation building. Survey research among adult samples (N = 399) in the neighbouring sultanates of Yogyakarta and Surakarta found that social representations of history were implicated in the relationship between monarchism and national identity. In Yogyakarta (but not Surakarta), a positive intersection between local and national representations of history was found: events and people associated with the sultanate were also regarded as instrumental to the birth of the nation. In Yogyakarta, support for the sultanate was higher than in Surakarta: respondents argued that Yogyakarta had the culture and history required to justify status as a special autonomous region. In Yogyakarta but not Surakarta, monarchism was positively related to national identity and trust in national democratic political institutions. The intersection between local and national representations of history, especially concerning the instrumentality of the local monarchy in giving birth to the nation in Yogyakarta, created historical continuity/positive intersectionality where the superordinate nation and the local monarchy are networked in a system of power and meaning that lends trust in democratic institutions from monarchism, and strengthens national identity.     

Classification of Planning and Violent Behaviours in Serial Homicide: A Cross‐National Comparison Between South Africa and the US

Recent literature suggests that different ‘styles’ of homicide will most appropriately be reflected in the different types of behaviours committed by offenders during the crime. In the last few years, there has been a move to standardise classification systems of single homicides and establish their cross‐national generalisability. Literature on serial homicide to date has mostly centred on homicides occurring in the US. However, national differences due to factors such as culture, national identity, political, and socio‐economic circumstances may decrease the applicability of these models or certain aspects thereof in other countries and thus must be evaluated. The present study tested the applicability in the South African context of a recently developed US‐based serial homicide crime scene classification framework. Specifically, this study compared the thematic differentiation in planning and violent behaviours that the offenders engage in and how this differentiation compares with that in the US. The sample consisted of 25 homicides that were in total responsible for the murder of 267 victims. Results indicated that overall, the framework is useful and applicable in the South African sample, but important environmental and contextual constraints must be taken into account. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Association Between Life Satisfaction and Self‐Reported Health Status in Europe

Previous research has shown that life satisfaction (LS) and self‐reported health status are strongly related to each other. However, it is not clear whether this association holds across different nations or whether certain country‐level indicators significantly affect this association. The study was based on nationally representative samples of 32 countries from the first six rounds of the European Social Survey (N = 291 686). Results from hierarchical multilevel modelling indicated that there was a positive association between LS and self‐reported health status across countries, but this association was slightly stronger in countries where governments spent less on the health care of their residents. Self‐reported health ratings were also more strongly tied to LS judgements in countries where variability in LS ratings was larger. These results suggest that, especially in less wealthy European countries, policies should target reducing overall social inequality and the negative impact of governments' underinvestment in health care on LS. Copyright © 2015 European Association of Personality Psychology     

心理健康素质测评系统·中国成年人应对风格量表全国常模的制定

应用《心理健康素质测评系统·中国成年人应对风格量表》对全国28个省、市、自治区的6425名成年人的应对风格进行了调查,并在此基础上制定全国常模。结果表明:(1)男性在注重问题的应对上得分高于女性,女性在注重情绪的应对上得分高于男性;(2)年轻人在应对风格总分和注重情绪的应对上得分均高于中年人和老年人;(3)城镇人口在应对风格总分及注重问题的应对和注重情绪的应对两个维度上得分均高于农村人口;(4)随着教育水平的提高,应对风格总分及各维度的得分均显著提高;(5)少数民族在应对风格总分和注重情绪的应对上得分高于汉族。     

Patriotism's Impact on Cooperation with the State: An Experimental Study on Tax Compliance

Although it seems reasonable to assume that activating patriotism might motivate citizens to cooperate with the state in reaching societal goals, the empirical evidence supporting this contention is based mostly on correlational rather than experimental studies. In addition, little is known on whether patriotism can be manipulated without simultaneously triggering nationalism and on the psychological processes which determine the patriotism‐cooperation relation. This current article reports results of one survey and three experiments that manipulate patriotism by displaying either a national flag or national landscapes or by priming national achievements. The outcomes indicate that reported and manipulated patriotism indirectly increase tax compliance, although the national flag also increases nationalism. National achievements, on the other hand, seemingly increases trust in national public institutions and the voluntary motivation to cooperate, whereas national landscapes only increase the voluntary motivation to cooperate. Hence, it is possible to increase social capital in the form of trust and cooperation through patriotism without fostering nationalism as well.