Euclid: Strategic alternative assessment matrix

The vast amount of information that must be considered to solve inherently ill‐structured and complex strategic problems creates a need for tools to help decision makers (DMs) recognize the complexity of this process and develop a rational model for strategy evaluation. Over the last several decades, a philosophy and a body of intuitive and analytical methods have been developed to assist DMs in the evaluation of strategic alternatives. However, the intuitive methods lack a structured framework for the systematic evaluation of strategic alternatives while the analytical methods are not intended to capture intuitive preferences. Euclid is a simple and yet sophisticated multiobjective value analysis model that attempts to uncover some of the complexities inherent in the evaluation of strategic alternatives. The proposed model uses a series of intuitive and analytical methods including environmental scanning, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), subjective probabilities, and the theory of displaced ideal, to plot strategic alternatives on a matrix based on their Euclidean distance from the ideal alternative. Euclid is further compared to the quantitative strategic planning matrix (QSPM) in a real world application. The information provided by the users shows that Euclid can significantly enhance decision quality and the DM's confidence. Euclid is not intended to replace the DMs, rather, it provides a systematic approach to support, supplement, and ensure the internal consistency of their judgments through a series of logically sound techniques. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fourier‐Motzkin elimination method in MOLP problems

This paper introduces a method for finding the non‐dominated set in criterion space of an MOLP problem based on Fourier–Motzkin Elimination. The method incorporates a procedure that eliminates decision variables from constraints and transforms a feasible region from decision space to criterion space. While avoiding characterization of the efficient set in decision space, it finds the non‐dominated set in criterion space. After the decision maker's most preferred criterion vector has been identified, the corresponding efficient solutions can be found by backward substitution. The method was implemented in MATLAB using a tabular form and computational experiments were conducted. The results indicate that although the method performs well for relatively small problems, it can be computationally intensive for larger problems. Nonetheless, the method is intuitively appealing and it provides useful insights into the geometry and theory of MOLP. As such it makes it a valuable educational tool for students of multi‐criteria decision analysis. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Attribute‐based differentiation of alternatives

An intermediate step is introduced to the dialogue decision process for decision analysis. Alternatives are refined after they have been generated within a strategy table but before they are subject to more detailed evaluation. Two or more judges create a subjective mapping from alternatives to attributes that will later be mapped to criteria. In strategy tables, each of the alternative strategies consists of a coherent set of choices made across several decisions that are to be coordinated. These strategic alternatives are modified so as to increase their differentiation in the attribute space, rather than in the decision space alone. When criteria weights are unknown, the best alternative from the modified set may be superior to the best alternative from the original set. Furthermore, analysis of the resulting alternatives may yield a better mapping of the value response surface for the action space, in the sense that this mapping leads to eventual construction of a higher value alternative. Results are reported for a consulting engagement incorporating the proposed step. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decomposition,Interdependence and Precision in Multiattribute Utility Measurements

Traditionally, parameters of multiattribute utility models, representing a decision maker's preference judgements, are treated deterministically. This may be unrealistic, because assessment of such parameters is potentially fraught with imprecisions and errors. We thus treat such parameters as stochastic and investigate how their associated imprecision/errors are propagated in an additive multiattribute utility function in terms of the aggregate variance. Both a no information and a rank order case regarding the attribute weights are considered, assuming a uniform distribution over the feasible region of attribute weights constrained by the respective information assumption. In general, as the number of attributes increases, the variance of the aggregate utility in both cases decreases and approaches the same limit, which depends only on the variances as well as the correlations among the single-attribute utilities. However, the marginal change in aggregate utility variance decreases rather rapidly and hence decomposition as a variance reduction mechanism is generally useful but becomes relatively ineffective if the number of attributes exceed about 10. Moreover, it was found that utilities which are positively correlated increase the aggregate utility variance, hence every effort should be made to avoid positive correlations between the single-attribute utilities. We also provide guidelines for determining under what condition and to what extent a decision maker should decompose to obtain an aggregate utility variance that is smaller than that of holistic assessments. Extensions of the current model and empirical research to support some of our behavioural assumptions are discussed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Utility Functions: A Compromise Programming Approach to Specification and Optimization

Nowadays, utility theory and compromise programming (CP) are considered very different paradigms and methodologies to measure preferences as well as to determine decision maker's optima on an efficient frontier. In this paper, however, we show that a utility function with separate variables (presented in the form of a Taylor series around the ideal point) is reducible to a weighted sum of CP distances. This linkage between utility and compromise (based on a main assumption in which the usual utility functions hold) leads to (i) a method for specification and optimization of usual utility functions by operational technique and (ii) a reformulation of standard CP with the advantage of determining the best CP solution from a utility perspective. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

不同铆测验设计下多维IRT等值方法的比较

实际应用中测验往往具有多维结构, 如果仍采用单维IRT方法进行等值, 会得到不准确的结果。因此对于多维结构的测验, 需要使用多维IRT等值方法来实现参数的转换。基于共同题设计, 文章通过模拟研究的方法, 考察了不同铆测验设计下几种多维IRT等值方法的表现, 同时考虑了测验长度、两个维度题目数量的比例、铆测验长度、铆测验的选择策略、两个维度之间的相关和等值群体的能力水平差异六个因素的影响。所比较的多维IRT等值方法有：均值/均值(MM)方法, 均值/标准差(MS)方法, Stoking-Lord (SL)方法, Haebara (HB)方法, 最小平方(LS)方法。结果显示：(1) SL, HB和LS方法得到的等值误差均方根最小, 且在各条件下表现较为稳定。(2) MM和MS方法在非等组条件下呈现出很大的误差均方根。(3)铆测验设计对SL, HB和LS方法的等值结果没有显著影响。(4)在两个维度之间的相关较高, 测验长度和铆测验长度较长, 等值群体的能力水平没有差异的条件下, SL, HB和LS方法得到的等值误差均方根最小。     

Effect of body size on aggression in the ant,Cataglyphis niger (Hymenoptera; Formicidae)

In polymorphic ants, such as Cataglyphis niger, sterile individual workers from the same nest show some degree of variation in size and/or morphology. We studied whether worker size and size difference between opponents had an effect on aggression during conspecific encounters. Although the capacity to recognize nestmates was shared by all individuals, some patterns of agonistic behaviors were size related. Escape was mostly displayed by the small workers, and threat, associated with ritualized fights, by the large workers. As game theory predicted, ants of C. niger adjusted their level of aggression as a function of the size of the opponent. However, only large individuals used such assessment strategies, responding with escalation of aggression towards small workers and reduction of aggression towards large ones. On the contrary, small individuals behaved in the same manner whatever the opponent's size. Differences between both morphological castes were discussed with reference to the resource holding assessment models. Aggr. Behav. 25:369–379, 1999. © 1999 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

On Stage with Gunk

A structure is temporally gunky just in case all of its temporal parts have proper temporal parts. Joshua Stuchlik [2003] objects to the stage theory of persistence from temporal gunk by arguing that the former requires instantaneous entities while the latter precludes them. It is argued here that stage theory can accommodate temporal gunk by invoking short-lived persisting stages. However, a new and more serious problem for stage theory is not far to seek. The short-lived stages that are needed to accommodate gunk accord with stage theory only if they are appropriately qualitatively static. The problem is that, unless stage theory abandons much of its dialectical force, some of the required stages fail this condition. Thus, Stuchlik is right that gunk shows a large class of worlds not to be stages, but wrong about which worlds these are.     

Optimal designs for the generalized partial credit model

Analysing ordinal data is becoming increasingly important in psychology, especially in the context of item response theory. The generalized partial credit model (GPCM) is probably the most widely used ordinal model and has found application in many large-scale educational assessment studies such as PISA. In the present paper, optimal test designs are investigated for estimating persons’ abilities with the GPCM for calibrated tests when item parameters are known from previous studies. We find that local optimality may be achieved by assigning non-zero probability only to the first and last categories independently of a person's ability. That is, when using such a design, the GPCM reduces to the dichotomous two-parameter logistic (2PL) model. Since locally optimal designs require the true ability to be known, we consider alternative Bayesian design criteria using weight distributions over the ability parameter space. For symmetric weight distributions, we derive necessary conditions for the optimal one-point design of two response categories to be Bayes optimal. Furthermore, we discuss examples of common symmetric weight distributions and investigate under what circumstances the necessary conditions are also sufficient. Since the 2PL model is a special case of the GPCM, all of these results hold for the 2PL model as well.     

Using multidimensional item response theory to evaluate how response styles impact measurement

Multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) models for response style (e.g., Bolt, Lu, & Kim, 2014, Psychological Methods, 19, 528; Falk & Cai, 2016, Psychological Methods, 21, 328) provide flexibility in accommodating various response styles, but often present difficulty in isolating the effects of response style(s) from the intended substantive trait(s). In the presence of such measurement limitations, we consider several ways in which MIRT models are nevertheless useful in lending insight into how response styles may interfere with measurement for a given test instrument. Such a study can also inform whether alternative design considerations (e.g., anchoring vignettes, self-report items of heterogeneous content) that seek to control for response style effects may be helpful. We illustrate several aspects of an MIRT approach using real and simulated analyses.