Incremental Validity of Cognitions in a Clinical Case Formulation: An Intraindividual Test in a Case Example

Incremental validity, the ability of a measure to predict or explain variance over and above other measures, is an important psychometric characteristic of standardized measures, but has received little attention idiographically. Idiographic assessment may be an important part of developing a clinical case formulation, guiding treatment by developing an individualized understanding of the variables that trigger and maintain distress. This study examined whether the idiosyncratic cognitive schema hypothesized by a clinician in a cognitive case formulation explained distress incrementally over that of situational triggers. Using daily ratings of situational triggers, idiosyncratic cognitions, and distress, the incremental validity of cognitions in predicting each of six distress measures was tested in a case example using dynamic time series regression. The incremental variance explained by cognitions varied across the distress measures, suggesting that, in this case example, targeting thoughts and beliefs for treatment may be important for only certain types of distress.

等级效标分数的概率神经网络预测方法研究

针对基于统计学的等级效标分数预测存在的问题,提出了运用概率神经网络进行等级效标分数预测的方法。在20种条件下进行了计算机模拟实验,包括测验分数为单变量和多变量,以及各种水平的白噪声干扰条件,结果表明在测验分数为多变量的情况下,或者在有白噪声干扰的条件下,运用概率神经网络方法可以比统计学方法更好地对等级效标分数进行预测。     

工作家庭冲突对电讯人员工作倦怠和心理健康的影响

采用工作家庭冲突问卷、工作倦怠问卷（MBI-Gs）和一般健康状况问卷（GHQ-12）调查了某国营电讯公司526名员工。中介回归分析（Mediating Regressin Analysis）的结果显示,工作家庭冲突及其两个子成分（工作浸扰家庭和家庭浸扰工作）都对心理健康具有显著的负向影响;工作倦怠对工作家庭冲突影响心理健康具有完全中介作用;具体而言,工作浸扰家庭对心理健康的影响受情绪衰竭和玩世不恭的完全中介;家庭浸扰工作对心理健康的影响受工作倦怠所有三个子成分的完全中介。     

Offending Patterns of Serial Sex Offenders: Escalation,De‐escalation,and Consistency of Sexually Intrusive and Violent Behaviours

A series of stranger sexual assaults poses considerable obstacles for law enforcement officials. One such preoccupation is concerned with whether or not the offender will escalate in the severity of his behaviours with subsequent victims. The current study uses transition matrices to address whether or not the offending patterns of 72 serial stranger sex offenders change from one victim to the next as it pertains to their sexual acts and level of physical force used during the crime. Findings indicate that stability, specifically the offender's intrusive sexual acts and use of physical force, and versatility are present in this sample's offending patterns. To explain changes in offending patterns between victims, multinomial regression analyses indicate that situational factors and modus operandi strategies are important considerations. Implications for investigations are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The power of regression to the mean: A social norm study revisited

This research follows up on a study by Schultz et al. ( 2007 ), in which the effect of a social norm intervention on energy consumption was examined. The present studies included control groups to examine whether social norm effects would persist beyond regression to the mean. Both studies had a 2 (baseline consumption: below mean versus above mean) × 2 (message condition: no‐message control versus norm message) design . Based on baseline fruit ( Study 1 ) or unhealthy snack ( Study 2 ) consumption, students were classified as above mean or below mean for consumption. One week later, half of the students in the above‐mean and below‐mean groups received normative feedback; control groups did not. Neither study showed an effect of norm messages on behavior relative to control, providing evidence for regression to the mean as an alternative explanation. Findings highlight the importance of control groups to distinguish social norm intervention effects from mere regression to the mean.     

Metacognitive sensitivity of subjective reports of decisional confidence and visual experience

Previous studies provided contradicting results regarding metacognitive sensitivity estimated from subjective reports of confidence in comparison to subjective reports of visual experience. We investigated whether this effect of content of subjective reports is influenced by the statistical method to quantify metacognitive sensitivity. Comparing logistic regression and meta-d in a masked orientation task, a masked shape task, and a random-dot motion task, we observed metacognitive sensitivity of reports regarding decisional confidence was greater than of reports about visual experience irrespective of mathematical procedures. However, the relationship between subjective reports and the logistic transform of accuracy was often not linear, implying that logistic regression is not a consistent measure of metacognitive sensitivity. We argue that a science of consciousness would benefit from the assessment of both visual experience and decisional confidence, and recommend meta-d as measure of metacognitive sensitivity for future studies.     

Using Cook's distance in polytomous logistic regression

The previously unknown asymptotic distribution of Cook's distance in polytomous logistic regression is established as a linear combination of independent chi‐square random variables with one degree of freedom. An exhaustive approach to the analysis of influential covariates is developed and a new measure for the accuracy of predictions based on such a distribution is provided. Two examples with real data sets (one with continuous covariates and the other with both qualitative and quantitative covariates) are presented to illustrate the approach developed.     

Equivalence tests for comparing correlation and regression coefficients

Equivalence tests are an alternative to traditional difference‐based tests for demonstrating a lack of association between two variables. While there are several recent studies investigating equivalence tests for comparing means, little research has been conducted on equivalence methods for evaluating the equivalence or similarity of two correlation coefficients or two regression coefficients. The current project proposes novel tests for evaluating the equivalence of two regression or correlation coefficients derived from the two one‐sided tests (TOST) method (Schuirmann, 1987, J. Pharmacokinet. Biopharm, 15, 657) and an equivalence test by Anderson and Hauck (1983, Stat. Commun., 12, 2663). A simulation study was used to evaluate the performance of these tests and compare them with the common, yet inappropriate, method of assessing equivalence using non‐rejection of the null hypothesis in difference‐based tests. Results demonstrate that equivalence tests have more accurate probabilities of declaring equivalence than difference‐based tests. However, equivalence tests require large sample sizes to ensure adequate power. We recommend the Anderson–Hauck equivalence test over the TOST method for comparing correlation or regression coefficients.     

A field investigation of red-light-running in Shanghai,China

Red-Light-Running (RLR) is the major cause of severe injury crashes at signalized intersections for both China and the US. As several studies have been conducted to identify the influencing factors of RLR behavior in the US, no similar studies exist in China. To fill this gap, this study was conducted to identify the key factors that affect RLR and compare the contributing factors between US and China. Data were collected through field observations and video recordings; four intersections in Shanghai were selected as the study sites. Both RLR drivers and comparison drivers, who had the opportunity to run the light but did not, were identified. Based on the collected data, preliminary analyses were firstly conducted to identify the features of the RLR and comparison groups. It was determined that: around 57% of RLR crossed the stop line during the 0–0.4 second time interval after red-light onset, and the numbers of red light violators decreased as the time increased; among the RLR vehicles, 38% turned left and 62% went straight; and at the onset of red, about 88% of RLR vehicles were in the middle of a vehicle platoon. Furthermore, in order to compare the RLR group and non-RLR group, two types of logistic regression models were developed. The ordinary logistic regression model was developed to identify the significant variables from the aspects of driver characteristics, driving conditions, and vehicle types. It was concluded that RLR drivers are more likely to be male, have local license plates, and are driving passenger vehicles but without passengers. Large traffic volume also increased the likelihood of RLR. However, the ordinary logistic regression model only considers influencing factors at the vehicle level: different intersection design and signal settings may also have impact on RLR behaviors. Therefore, in order to account for unobserved heterogeneity among different types of intersections, a random effects logistic regression model was adopted. Through the model comparisons, it has been identified that the model goodness-of-fit was substantially improved through considering the heterogeneity effects at intersections. Finally, benefits of this study and the analysis results were discussed.