Scenario Planning: The Basics

This article covers the basics of scenario planning: Why scenarios? What are scenarios? How do you develop scenarios? After covering the preliminaries—the constitution of the scenario team; interviews; research; the identification of a focal issue; set and setting for a scenario workshop; staffing; the trajectory of a scenario planning project—the article moves on to describe several methods for identifying a finite set of diverse scenario logics. After a set of scenarios has been developed, there are several different routes from scenarios to strategy. Early indicators can help identify which of several scenarios is in fact unfolding.     

The relation between goal adjustment,goal disturbance,and mental well-being among persons with multiple sclerosis

Objective: This study investigated the role of goal adjustment, i.e. disengaging from blocked goals and reengaging into alternative goals, in mental well-being and goal disturbance in persons with multiple sclerosis (MS).

Design: A cross-sectional design was used with self-report data from questionnaires and Personal Project Analysis (PPA).

Main outcome measures: Dependent variables were mental well-being, indicated by depression/anxiety (HADS; Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) and mental functioning (SF-36; Short Form Health Survey), and goal disturbance, indicated by goal manageability and goal interference (PPA). Independent variables were patient-reported physical impairment (SF-36) and goal disengagement and reengagement (GAS; Goal Adjustment Scale).

Results: Higher goal reengagement was associated with better mental well-being, but unrelated to goal disturbance. Goal disengagement only showed a negative association with anxiety. High disengagement was associated with lower goal interference but only for those also scoring high on reengagement. Goal adjustment did not buffer the effects of physical impairment on mental well-being and goal disturbance. Contrary to expectations, higher goal reengagement increased the association between physical impairment and goal interference.

Conclusion: Although goal reengagement is associated with better mental well-being in persons with MS, it might also strengthen the perceived effect of physical impairment on goal interference.     

Multiple objective programming with piecewise linear functions

An approach to generating all efficient solutions for multiple objective programs with piecewise linear objective functions and linear constraints is presented. The approach is based on the decomposition of the feasible set into subsets, referred to as cells, so that the original problem reduces to a series of single objective linear programs and feasibility tests over the cells. The concepts of cell-efficiency and complex-efficiency are introduced and their relationship with efficiency is examined. A generic algorithm for finding efficient solutions for bi-objective piecewise linear programs is proposed. Applications in location theory as well as in worst case analysis are highlighted. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Linking online self-presentation to identity coherence,identity confusion,and social anxiety in emerging adulthood

The present study examined the role of social media in psychosocial development and adjustment in emerging adulthood. Survey data from a diverse college sample of 220 emerging adults (M age ≈ 23, 175 women) were collected and analysed using a series of multiple regressions. Results revealed that emerging adults high in general identity coherence (indicative of high self-concept clarity) reported presenting the real self and the ideal self on Facebook, suggesting that they were more truthful and positively realistic in their online self-presentation. Emerging adults high in general identity confusion (indicative of less self-concept clarity) reported presenting the ideal self and the false self on Facebook, suggesting that they were less truthful, less realistic, and more socially desirable in their online self-presentation. Moreover, emerging adults who experienced both identity coherence and identity confusion reported presenting the false self on Facebook motivated by self-exploration. Emerging adults experiencing high social anxiety reported presenting the false self on Facebook; they engaged in an extensive self-exploratory and socially desirable online self-presentation. Further, emerging adults experiencing both high identity confusion and high social anxiety reported presenting themselves on Facebook in a less truthful manner. Findings have important implications for identity integration during the emerging adulthood transition in the digital age.     

A diagnostic tree model for polytomous responses with multiple strategies

Constructed-response items have been shown to be appropriate for cognitively diagnostic assessments because students’ problem-solving procedures can be observed, providing direct evidence for making inferences about their proficiency. However, multiple strategies used by students make item scoring and psychometric analyses challenging. This study introduces the so-called two-digit scoring scheme into diagnostic assessments to record both students’ partial credits and their strategies. This study also proposes a diagnostic tree model (DTM) by integrating the cognitive diagnosis models with the tree model to analyse the items scored using the two-digit rubrics. Both convergent and divergent tree structures are considered to accommodate various scoring rules. The MMLE/EM algorithm is used for item parameter estimation of the DTM, and has been shown to provide good parameter recovery under varied conditions in a simulation study. A set of data from TIMSS 2007 mathematics assessment is analysed to illustrate the use of the two-digit scoring scheme and the DTM.