A Fuzzy Goal Programming Formulation with Multiple Target Levels

The essential activity of a manager is decision making, which is becoming more and more complex, mainly in the multi‐criteria problems. Multi‐choice goal programming (MCGP) is considered as a robust tool in operational research to solve this type of problem. However, in real world problems, determining precise targets for the goals is a difficult task. To deal with such situation, Tabrizi introduced and used in 2012 the concept of membership functions in the MCGP model in order to model the targets fuzziness of each goal. In their model, they considered just only one type of functions (triangular form), which does not reflect adequately the decision maker's preferences that are considered as an essential element for modelling the goal's fuzziness. Their model is called Fuzzy MCGP. In this paper, new ideas are presented to reformulate MCGP model to tackle all types of functions by introducing the (decision maker's) preferences. The concept of indifference thresholds is used in the new formulation for characterizing the imprecision and the preferences associated with all types of the goals. The proposed formulation provides useful insight about the solution of a new class of problems. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the validity and strength of the new formulation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

分段是视频学习的有效方式吗?

教育心理学中的分段原则认为,将视频学习材料分割成几个小片段进行学习的效果更好。以往关于分段的研究通过两个角度的操纵考察了分段在学习中的作用,一方面是交互性角度,学习者自己控制的分段及系统分段;另一方面是结构性角度,分段是在任意时间点划分和有意义时间点上划分。通过对以往研究结果的整理发现,大部分研究证明分段学习相较于连续学习的成绩更好,并且能降低学习者在学习过程中的感知难度, 提高积极的情感状态,但是对心理努力的影响比较微弱。研究者们从事件分割理论和认知负荷理论的视角对分段的效果做出了解释。未来研究需要继续关注分段的边界条件、拓宽研究的范围、探究分段的认知神经基础等不断完善分段原则在教学中的应用。     

认知诊断缺失数据处理方法的比较：零替换、多重插补与极大似然估计法

数据缺失在测验中经常发生, 认知诊断评估也不例外, 数据缺失会导致诊断结果的偏差。首先, 通过模拟研究在多种实验条件下比较了常用的缺失数据处理方法。结果表明：(1)缺失数据导致估计精确性下降, 随着人数与题目数量减少、缺失率增大、题目质量降低, 所有方法的PCCR均下降, Bias绝对值和RMSE均上升。(2)估计题目参数时, EM法表现最好, 其次是MI, FIML和ZR法表现不稳定。(3)估计被试知识状态时, EM和FIML表现最好, MI和ZR表现不稳定。其次, 在PISA2015实证数据中进一步探索了不同方法的表现。综合模拟和实证研究结果, 推荐选用EM或FIML法进行缺失数据处理。     

What Do the Theologically Educated Look Like?

What do the theologically educated look like? Nine outcomes of a theological education are suggested that respond to this question, outcomes particularly pertinent to the contemporary cultural setting and mission challenge of Western Europe. These outcomes are compared with the nine learning outcomes that the Church of England uses at the present time to assess candidates for ordained ministry. In the light of this comparison some broad recommendations are made for future emphases in theological education.     

广西肝恶性肿瘤患者住院费用的研究

为探讨肝恶性肿瘤患者住院总费用情况,对广西2010年～2012年间肝恶性肿瘤患者的住院费用资料进行统计学分析,比较肝恶性肿瘤患者3年住院总费用的变化情况,并采用多重线性回归分析方法,分析肝恶性肿瘤患者住院总费用的影响因素.结果显示广西肝恶性肿瘤住院患者逐年增多,住院费用逐年增高;住院天数、有无手术、有无合并症、有无院内感染、性别、年龄6个因素是住院总费用的影响因素.我们应加大预防控制肝恶性肿瘤的力度,建立单病种诊疗规范和费用控制标准,推进临床路径管理,以减轻患者的经济负担.     

Extreme Outcomes Sway Risky Decisions from Experience

Whether buying stocks or playing the slots, people making real‐world risky decisions often rely on their experiences with the risks and rewards. These decisions, however, do not occur in isolation but are embedded in a rich context of other decisions, outcomes, and experiences. In this paper, we systematically evaluate how the local context of other rewarding outcomes alters risk preferences. Through a series of four experiments on decisions from experience, we provide evidence for an extreme‐outcome rule, whereby people overweight the most extreme outcomes (highest and lowest) in a given context. As a result, people should be more risk seeking for gains than losses, even with equally likely outcomes. Across the experiments, the decision context was varied so that the same outcomes served as the high extreme, low extreme, or neither. As predicted, people were more risk seeking for relative gains, but only when the risky option potentially led to the high‐extreme outcome. Similarly, people were more risk averse for relative losses, but only when the risky option potentially led to the low‐extreme outcome. We conclude that in risky decisions from experience, the biggest wins and the biggest losses seem to matter more than they should. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

迎接心理学发展的第三波

心理学自冯特始便存在两种类型,自然科学的心理学和人文的心理学.本土心理学依据“一种心智,多种心态”的原则,建构了儒家关系主义理论和自我曼陀罗模型,这种含摄文化的理论解决了冯特以科学方法研究文化的难题.批判实在论和多重哲学典范的结合,奠定了华人本土心理学科学哲学基础,在此基础上,华人本土心理学将迎来心理学发展的第三波.     

Improvement of Thematic Classification in Offender Profiling: Classifying Serbian Homicides Using Multiple Correspondence,Cluster, and Discriminant Function Analyses

This paper investigates thematic classification of homicides for the purpose of behavioural investigative analysis (e.g. offender profiling). Previous research has predominantly used smallest space analysis (SSA) to conceptualise and classify offences into thematic groups based on crime scene behaviour data. This paper introduces a combined approach utilising multiple correspondence analysis (MCA), cluster analysis (CA), and discriminant function analysis (DFA) to define and differentiate crime scenes into expressive or instrumental and impersonal or personal crimes. MCA is used to derive the latent structural dimensions in the crime data and produce quantitative scores for each offence along these dimensions. Two‐step CA was then utilised to classify offences. Offence dimensional scores were then used to predict cluster membership under DFA, producing cluster centroids corresponding to MCA dimensions. Centroids were plotted on the MCA correspondence map to simultaneously conceptualise crime classification and the latent structure of the Serbian crime data. Classification of offences based on MCA dimensional scores were 91.5% accurate. This MCA–CA–DFA approach may reduce some of the more subjective aspects of SSA methodology used in classification, whilst producing a product more amenable to objective and cumulative review. Implications for offender profiling research utilising SSA and this approach are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于结构方程模型的多重中介效应分析

多重中介模型是指存在多个中介变量的模型。多重中介模型可以分析特定中介效应、总的中介效应和对比中介效应。指出了目前多重中介模型分析普遍存在的问题,包括分析不完整、使用Sobel检验带来的局限。建议通过增加辅助变量的方法进行完整的多重中介效应分析,使用偏差校正的Bootstrap方法进行中介检验。总结出一个多重中介SEM分析流程,并有示例和相应的MPLUS程序。随后展望了辅助变量和中介效应检验方法的发展方向。