Patterns of Responding on a Balloon Analogue Task Reveal Individual Differences in Overall Risk-Taking: Choice Between Guaranteed and Uncertain Cash

ABSTRACT. We explored the utility of analyzing within- and between-balloon response patterns on a balloon analogue task (BAT) in relation to overall risk scores, and to a choice between a small guaranteed cash reward and an uncertain reward of the same expected value. Young adults (n = 61) played a BAT, and then were offered a choice between $5 in cash and betting to win $0 to $15. Between groups, pumping was differentially influenced by explosions and by the number of successive unexploded balloons, with risk takers responding increasingly on successive balloons after an explosion. Within-balloons, risk takers showed a characteristic pattern of constant high rate, while non-risk takers showed a characteristic variable lower rate. Overall, results show that the higher number of pumps and explosions that characterize risk takers at a molar level, result from particular forms of adaptation to the positive and negative outcomes of choices seen at a molecular level.

Color versions of one or more of the figures in the article can be found online at www.tandfonline.com/vgen.     

Choice‐making,Expectations, and Treatment Positivity: How and When Choosing Shapes Aversive Experiences

Every day we use products and treatments with unknown but expected effects, such as using medication to manage pain. In many cases, we have a choice over which products or treatments to use; however, in other cases, people choose for us or choices are unavailable. Does choosing (versus not choosing) have implications for how a product or treatment is experienced? The current experiments examined the role of choice‐making in facilitating so‐called expectation assimilation effects—or situations in which a person's experiences (e.g., discomfort and pain) are evaluated in a manner consistent with their expectations. In Experiment 1, participants were initially exposed to a baseline set of aversive stimuli (i.e., sounds). Next, some participants were given expectations for two “treatments” (i.e., changes in screen display) that could ostensibly reduce discomfort. Critically, participants were either given a choice or not about which of the two treatments they preferred. Participants in a control condition were not provided with treatment expectations. Results revealed that discomfort experiences assimilated to expectations only when participants were provided with choice. Experiment 2 replicated this finding and provided evidence against the idea that demand characteristics and choice‐making unrelated to the core task (i.e., choices without associated expectations) could account for the results. Further, Experiment 2 showed that choosing reduced discomfort because of increased positivity about the treatment. Results are discussed in the context of extant research on choice‐making and expectation effects. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

From ABLE to TAPAS: A New Generation of Personality Tests to Support Military Selection and Classification Decisions

This article discusses 3 modern forced-choice personality tests developed for the U.S Armed Services to provide resistance to faking and other forms of response distortion: the Assessment of Individual Motivation, the Navy Computerized Adaptive Personality Scales, and the Tailored Adaptive Personality Assessment System. These tests represent the transition from Likert to forced-choice formats and from static to computerized adaptive item selection to meet the challenges of large-scale, high-stakes testing environments. For each test, we briefly describe the personality constructs that are assessed, the response format and scoring methods, and selected ongoing research and development efforts. We also highlight the potential of these tests for personnel selection, classification, and diagnostic screening purposes.     

广西肝恶性肿瘤患者住院费用的研究

为探讨肝恶性肿瘤患者住院总费用情况,对广西2010年～2012年间肝恶性肿瘤患者的住院费用资料进行统计学分析,比较肝恶性肿瘤患者3年住院总费用的变化情况,并采用多重线性回归分析方法,分析肝恶性肿瘤患者住院总费用的影响因素.结果显示广西肝恶性肿瘤住院患者逐年增多,住院费用逐年增高;住院天数、有无手术、有无合并症、有无院内感染、性别、年龄6个因素是住院总费用的影响因素.我们应加大预防控制肝恶性肿瘤的力度,建立单病种诊疗规范和费用控制标准,推进临床路径管理,以减轻患者的经济负担.     

Extreme Outcomes Sway Risky Decisions from Experience

Whether buying stocks or playing the slots, people making real‐world risky decisions often rely on their experiences with the risks and rewards. These decisions, however, do not occur in isolation but are embedded in a rich context of other decisions, outcomes, and experiences. In this paper, we systematically evaluate how the local context of other rewarding outcomes alters risk preferences. Through a series of four experiments on decisions from experience, we provide evidence for an extreme‐outcome rule, whereby people overweight the most extreme outcomes (highest and lowest) in a given context. As a result, people should be more risk seeking for gains than losses, even with equally likely outcomes. Across the experiments, the decision context was varied so that the same outcomes served as the high extreme, low extreme, or neither. As predicted, people were more risk seeking for relative gains, but only when the risky option potentially led to the high‐extreme outcome. Similarly, people were more risk averse for relative losses, but only when the risky option potentially led to the low‐extreme outcome. We conclude that in risky decisions from experience, the biggest wins and the biggest losses seem to matter more than they should. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

迎接心理学发展的第三波

心理学自冯特始便存在两种类型,自然科学的心理学和人文的心理学.本土心理学依据“一种心智,多种心态”的原则,建构了儒家关系主义理论和自我曼陀罗模型,这种含摄文化的理论解决了冯特以科学方法研究文化的难题.批判实在论和多重哲学典范的结合,奠定了华人本土心理学科学哲学基础,在此基础上,华人本土心理学将迎来心理学发展的第三波.     

Improvement of Thematic Classification in Offender Profiling: Classifying Serbian Homicides Using Multiple Correspondence,Cluster, and Discriminant Function Analyses

This paper investigates thematic classification of homicides for the purpose of behavioural investigative analysis (e.g. offender profiling). Previous research has predominantly used smallest space analysis (SSA) to conceptualise and classify offences into thematic groups based on crime scene behaviour data. This paper introduces a combined approach utilising multiple correspondence analysis (MCA), cluster analysis (CA), and discriminant function analysis (DFA) to define and differentiate crime scenes into expressive or instrumental and impersonal or personal crimes. MCA is used to derive the latent structural dimensions in the crime data and produce quantitative scores for each offence along these dimensions. Two‐step CA was then utilised to classify offences. Offence dimensional scores were then used to predict cluster membership under DFA, producing cluster centroids corresponding to MCA dimensions. Centroids were plotted on the MCA correspondence map to simultaneously conceptualise crime classification and the latent structure of the Serbian crime data. Classification of offences based on MCA dimensional scores were 91.5% accurate. This MCA–CA–DFA approach may reduce some of the more subjective aspects of SSA methodology used in classification, whilst producing a product more amenable to objective and cumulative review. Implications for offender profiling research utilising SSA and this approach are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于结构方程模型的多重中介效应分析

多重中介模型是指存在多个中介变量的模型。多重中介模型可以分析特定中介效应、总的中介效应和对比中介效应。指出了目前多重中介模型分析普遍存在的问题,包括分析不完整、使用Sobel检验带来的局限。建议通过增加辅助变量的方法进行完整的多重中介效应分析,使用偏差校正的Bootstrap方法进行中介检验。总结出一个多重中介SEM分析流程,并有示例和相应的MPLUS程序。随后展望了辅助变量和中介效应检验方法的发展方向。     

Driving speed choice: The role of conscious monitoring and control (reinvestment) when driving

This study aimed to examine the role of reinvestment - the propensity to consciously monitor and control actions (movement specific reinvestment) and to consciously monitor and evaluate decision making processes (Decision specific reinvestment) while driving in everyday risky scenarios. The study also aimed to evaluate the association between reinvestment and previously validated driver attitude measures. Fifty one participants completed a series of questionnaires (Driving Self-Efficacy Scale, Driver Attitude Questionnaire, Movement Specific Reinvestment Scale, Decision Specific Reinvestment Scale) after which they completed a test phase in a driving simulator. In the test phase, driving scenarios included roads with different markings (i.e., double yellow, wide centrelines, wire rope barriers, Audio Tactile Profiled markings) and alerting scenarios (i.e., police car present, high crash risk area sign, reduced speed zone). Results revealed that on risky roads (wide centrelines), participants with a high propensity for decision specific reinvestment drove slower than those with a low propensity. Driver experience, attitudes towards speeding and scores on the Decision Reinvestment subscale of the Decision Specific Reinvestment Scale significantly predicted speed choice. More experienced participants with higher scores on the Decision Reinvestment subscale were more likely to drive slower and participants with worse attitudes towards speeding were likely to drive faster. Participants with a low propensity for movement specific reinvestment (specifically, Movement Self-Consciousness) reduced their speed to a greater extent than those with a high propensity when driving in the police car scenario. There was some evidence to suggest that high decision specific and movement specific reinvesters were more likely to be involved in crashes and receive driving infringements. The current study is the first to demonstrate a significant relationship between reinvestment and driving. The implications of these findings for road safety are discussed.