Analog scale,magnitude estimation,and person trade‐off as measures of health utility: biases and their correction

Subjects judged the disutility of health conditions (e.g. blindness) using one of them (e.g. blindness+deafness) as a standard, using three elicitation methods: analog scale (AS, how bad is blindness compared to blindness+deafness?); magnitude estimation (ME, blindness+deafness is how many times as bad as blindness?); and person trade‐off (PTO, how many people cured of blindness is as good as 10 people cured of blindness+deafness?). ME disutilities of the less bad condition were smallest, and AS was highest. Interleaving PTO with ME made PTO more like ME. AS disutilities were inconsistent with direct judgments of differences between pairs of conditions. ME and PTO judgments were internally inconsistent: e.g. the disutility of one‐eye‐blindness relative to blindness+deafness was larger than predicted from comparison of each to blindness. Consistency training reduced inconsistency, increased agreement between AS and PTO, and transferred from one method to the other. The results support the use of consistency checks in utility elicitation. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are absolute frequencies,relative frequencies,or both effective in reducing cognitive biases?

Biases in probabilistic reasoning are affected by alterations in the presentation of judgment tasks. In our experiments, students made likelihood judgments that an event was produced by various causes. These judgments were made in terms of probability, relative frequency or absolute frequency on a full or a pruned list of causes. When they had little personal experience of the event (causes of death), the pruning bias was smaller with relative frequencies than with absolute frequencies or probabilities. When they had more personal experience of the event (missing a lecture), the bias was less with both types of frequency than with probability but still lowest with relative frequency. We suggest that likelihood information is usually stored as relative frequencies when it has been obtained from public sources but that it is based on event counts when it is derived from personal experience. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determining the implementation order of a general plan by using a multicriteria method

We describe a real-life application of a new multicriteria method in the context of assisting the decision-making for a general plan in the municipality of Kirkkonummi in Uusimaa, Finland. At the time our group started working on the problem, a proposal for an overall plan had already been completed, but the order in which different regional parts of the plan should be implemented needed to be considered based on the environmental impact assessment (EIA) procedure. The EIA procedure generated a large amount of data about the different impacts of the alternatives. For this group decision making problem we developed the SMAA-3 decision support method which does not require any explicit preference information from the decision makers during the procedure. The uncertainty of the basic data is modelled using ELECTRE III-type pseudo-criteria with preference and indifference thresholds. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time complexity and consistency issues in using the AHP for making group decisions

Two different ways of using the AHP in making group decisions are compared and evaluated. The first method combines different experts’ opinions before applying an eigenvalue method to obtain final weights for decision alternatives. The second, in contrast, derives each expert's rating for the decision alternatives before combining them. Both methods take into account the relative importance of different experts in making decisions. Comparison and evaluation of these two methods are made by using two criteria: time complexity and consistency indices. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the use of these two methods, and results of a mathematical simulation are presented for comparing the time complexity in different-sized problems. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fourier‐Motzkin elimination method in MOLP problems

This paper introduces a method for finding the non‐dominated set in criterion space of an MOLP problem based on Fourier–Motzkin Elimination. The method incorporates a procedure that eliminates decision variables from constraints and transforms a feasible region from decision space to criterion space. While avoiding characterization of the efficient set in decision space, it finds the non‐dominated set in criterion space. After the decision maker's most preferred criterion vector has been identified, the corresponding efficient solutions can be found by backward substitution. The method was implemented in MATLAB using a tabular form and computational experiments were conducted. The results indicate that although the method performs well for relatively small problems, it can be computationally intensive for larger problems. Nonetheless, the method is intuitively appealing and it provides useful insights into the geometry and theory of MOLP. As such it makes it a valuable educational tool for students of multi‐criteria decision analysis. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of GIS and multicriteria evaluation in locating sustainable boundary between the tunari National Park and Cochabamba City (Bolivia)

Increased population growth and urbanization, has caused increase in demand for land around the city of Cochabamba, which has led to encroachment into the National Park and the construction of illegal settlements. This has created a number of problems, some of which are the direct consequences of the new settlements in the ‘Tunari’ foothills. These settlements constitute a threat to the environment and people because of their location in flood risk and aquifer recharge areas. In response to this problem the city authorities are considering relocating the boundary between the National Park and the city. This study has focused on the design and evaluation of alternative locations for a sustainable boundary between the north of ‘Cochabamba City’ and the southern boundary of the ‘Tunari National Park’. In this process, a rational and systematic approach of collaborative‐decision‐making, supported by geographical information systems (GIS) and multicriteria evaluation (MCE) has been employed and evaluated. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Attribute‐based differentiation of alternatives

An intermediate step is introduced to the dialogue decision process for decision analysis. Alternatives are refined after they have been generated within a strategy table but before they are subject to more detailed evaluation. Two or more judges create a subjective mapping from alternatives to attributes that will later be mapped to criteria. In strategy tables, each of the alternative strategies consists of a coherent set of choices made across several decisions that are to be coordinated. These strategic alternatives are modified so as to increase their differentiation in the attribute space, rather than in the decision space alone. When criteria weights are unknown, the best alternative from the modified set may be superior to the best alternative from the original set. Furthermore, analysis of the resulting alternatives may yield a better mapping of the value response surface for the action space, in the sense that this mapping leads to eventual construction of a higher value alternative. Results are reported for a consulting engagement incorporating the proposed step. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Self‐reported discipline among Swedish parents of preschool children

Swedish mothers and fathers from 200 volunteer families (target child aged 1–6 years) were asked what they would do in five situations which called for either control or discipline. The Parental Discipline Interview (PDI) was scored for 18 possible responses. Both mothers and fathers reported a variety of discipline strategies. Firm Command and Redefine were reported most often, while Threat and Physical Punishment were reported least often. Analysis of Variance (ANOVAs) showed higher frequencies of Reasoning and Ignore and lower frequencies of Redefine for mothers than for fathers. Regression analyses showed that mothers that had less traditional attitudes and young children predicted the preference of Physical Restraint, as well as Distraction. Ignore was predicted for older, less active children of less educated mothers. Fathers having younger, less active daughters predicted the preference of Redefine. Even if parents do not have Physical Punishment at their disposal following the ‘aga‐law’, the results showed that they have not abdicated their parental authority. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.