The Wished‐For Always Wins Until the Winner Was Inevitable All Along: Motivated Reasoning and Belief Bias Regulate Emotion During Elections

How do biases affect political information processing? A variant of the Wason selection task, which tests for confirmation bias, was used to characterize how the dynamics of the recent U.S. presidential election affected how people reasoned about political information. Participants were asked to evaluate pundit‐style conditional claims like “The incumbent always wins in a year when unemployment drops” either immediately before or immediately after the 2012 presidential election. A three‐way interaction between ideology, predicted winner (whether the proposition predicted that Obama or Romney would win), and the time of test indicated complex effects of bias on reasoning. Before the election, there was partial evidence of motivated reasoning—liberals performed especially well at looking for falsifying information when the pundit's claim predicted Romney would win. After the election, once the outcome was known, there was evidence of a belief bias—people sought to falsify claims that were inconsistent with the real‐world outcome rather than their ideology. These results suggest that people seek to implicitly regulate emotion when reasoning about political predictions. Before elections, people like to think their preferred candidate will win. After elections, people like to think the winner was inevitable all along.     

青少年偏差行为的同伴选择和影响效应:基于纵向社会网络的元分析

以22篇纵向社会网络分析研究文献(30项独立样本研究,27746个被试)为对象,使用元分析技术探讨青少年偏差行为的同伴选择和同伴影响效应假设。结果发现:(1)同伴选择和同伴影响效应都显著,但同伴影响效应显著大于同伴选择效应;(2)青少年发展阶段在同伴选择和同伴影响过程中存在显著的调节效应。在同伴选择过程中,青少年早期阶段不显著,而中、晚期阶段显著;在同伴影响过程中,青少年早、中期显著,晚期阶段不显著。(3)偏差行为类型在同伴选择和同伴影响效应中的调节效应不显著。(4)网络数量在同伴影响过程中存在显著的调节效应,随着网络数量增加同伴影响效应越可能成立。结论,中晚期青少年会基于偏差行为相似性选择朋友,早中期青少年会受朋友的影响而产生偏差行为。     

有关条件推理认知机制的概率理论

条件推理主要有两种研究范式：演绎形式(MP、DA、AC、MT)和变通形式(四卡问题)。已往研究主要探讨了内容因素、情境因素以及元认知因素等对条件推理的影响,形成了若干理论模型和观点。近来、Oaksford等人研究了概率因素对条件推理的影响．提出了条件概率模型。本文对这种新的研究取向作了详细的介绍和评价,并对未来研究进行了展望。     

职业选拔情境下人格测验作假研究

在职业选拔情境下被试很容易对人格测验作假,从而制约了人格测验在企业中的应用。许多研究者在努力解决作假问题,分别就应聘者是否会作假,作假给人格测验带来的负面影响、应聘者如何作假以及如果应对作假等问题进行了深入的探讨。经过几十年的发展,该研究领域已经形成了包括实验诱导设计、已知群体设计和量表设计等几种特定的研究范式。研究结果显示,大多数应聘者会作假,但其负面影响并不严重;作假不同于社会称许性反应,它是一种工作称许性反应。目前的几种应对作假的方法尚存在一些问题,其有效性有待提高。总之,人格测验的作假作用明显,其研究难度较大,有待革新性理论和方法的出现     

Analysing multisource feedback with multilevel structural equation models: Pitfalls and recommendations from a simulation study

When multisource feedback instruments, for example, 360-degree feedback tools, are validated, multilevel structural equation models are the method of choice to quantify the amount of reliability as well as convergent and discriminant validity. A non-standard multilevel structural equation model that incorporates self-ratings (level-2 variables) and others’ ratings from different additional perspectives (level-1 variables), for example, peers and subordinates, has recently been presented. In a Monte Carlo simulation study, we determine the minimal required sample sizes for this model. Model parameters are accurately estimated even with the smallest simulated sample size of 100 self-ratings and two ratings of peers and of subordinates. The precise estimation of standard errors necessitates sample sizes of 400 self-ratings or at least four ratings of peers and subordinates. However, if sample sizes are smaller, mainly standard errors concerning common method factors are biased. Interestingly, there are trade-off effects between the sample sizes of self-ratings and others’ ratings in their effect on estimation bias. The degree of convergent and discriminant validity has no effect on the accuracy of model estimates. The χ² test statistic does not follow the expected distribution. Therefore, we suggest using a corrected level-specific standardized root mean square residual to analyse model fit and conclude with further recommendations for applied organizational research.     

A caveat on the Savage–Dickey density ratio: The case of computing Bayes factors for regression parameters

The Savage–Dickey density ratio is a simple method for computing the Bayes factor for an equality constraint on one or more parameters of a statistical model. In regression analysis, this includes the important scenario of testing whether one or more of the covariates have an effect on the dependent variable. However, the Savage–Dickey ratio only provides the correct Bayes factor if the prior distribution of the nuisance parameters under the nested model is identical to the conditional prior under the full model given the equality constraint. This condition is violated for multiple regression models with a Jeffreys–Zellner–Siow prior, which is often used as a default prior in psychology. Besides linear regression models, the limitation of the Savage–Dickey ratio is especially relevant when analytical solutions for the Bayes factor are not available. This is the case for generalized linear models, non-linear models, or cognitive process models with regression extensions. As a remedy, the correct Bayes factor can be computed using a generalized version of the Savage–Dickey density ratio.     

On the current status of the evolutionary theory of behavior dynamics

The evolutionary theory of behavior dynamics is a complexity theory that instantiates the Darwinian principles of selection, reproduction, and mutation in a genetic algorithm. The algorithm is used to animate artificial organisms that behave continuously in time and can be placed in any experimental environment. The present paper is an update on the status of the theory. It includes a summary of the evidence supporting the theory, a list of the theory's untested predictions, and a discussion of how the algorithmic operations of the theory may correspond to material reality. Based on the evidence reviewed here, the evolutionary theory appears to be a strong candidate for a comprehensive theory of adaptive behavior.     

Out-of-bag Prediction Error: A Cross Validation Index for Generalized Structured Component Analysis

Cross validation is a useful way of comparing predictive generalizability of theoretically plausible a priori models in structural equation modeling (SEM). A number of overall or local cross validation indices have been proposed for existing factor-based and component-based approaches to SEM, including covariance structure analysis and partial least squares path modeling. However, there is no such cross validation index available for generalized structured component analysis (GSCA) which is another component-based approach. We thus propose a cross validation index for GSCA, called Out-of-bag Prediction Error (OPE), which estimates the expected prediction error of a model over replications of so-called in-bag and out-of-bag samples constructed through the implementation of the bootstrap method. The calculation of this index is well-suited to the estimation procedure of GSCA, which uses the bootstrap method to obtain the standard errors or confidence intervals of parameter estimates. We empirically evaluate the performance of the proposed index through the analyses of both simulated and real data.     

A New Multilevel CART Algorithm for Multilevel Data with Binary Outcomes

The multilevel logistic regression model (M-logit) is the standard model for modeling multilevel data with binary outcomes. However, many assumptions and restrictions should be considered when applying this model for unbiased estimation. To overcome these limitations, we proposed a multilevel CART (M-CART) algorithm which combines the M-logit and single level CART (S-CART) within the framework of the expectation-maximization. Simulation results showed that the proposed M-CART provided substantial improvements on classification accuracy, sensitivity, and specific over the M-logit, S-CART, and single level logistic regression model when modeling multilevel data with binary outcomes. This benefit of using M-CART was consistently found across different conditions of sample size, intra-class correlation, and when relationships between predictors and outcomes were nonlinear and nonadditive.     

Why does impression management positively influence interview ratings? The mediating role of competence and warmth

Though interviews assess job applicants' skills and abilities, they can be influenced by extraneous factors, including impression management (IM) tactics. Interviewees’ self‐promotion and ingratiation IM tactics predict higher interview ratings; however, researchers have yet to determine why these tactics work. We assessed whether two fundamental dimensions of social perception, competence and warmth, mediate the relationship between IM tactics and interview ratings. We hypothesized that interviewee competence mediates the relationship between self‐promotion and interview ratings, and interviewee warmth mediates the relationship between ingratiation and interview ratings. Using real employment interviews, we found that competence mediates the relationship between self‐promotion and interview ratings, but warmth did not mediate the relationship between ingratiation and interview ratings in the way we expected.