Emotion and reason in everyday risk perception

Although research has documented the importance of emotion in risk perception, little is known about it in the context of everyday life. Using the Experience Sampling Method (ESM), 94 part‐time students were prompted at random—via cellular telephones—to report on mood state and three emotions and to assess risk on thirty occasions during their working hours. The emotions—valence, arousal, and dominance—were measured using self‐assessment manikins (SAMs) (Bradley & Lang, 1994). Hierarchical linear models (HLM) revealed that mood state and emotions explained significant variance in risk perception. In addition, valence and arousal accounted for variance over and above “reason” (measured by severity and possibility of risks). Six risks were re‐assessed in a post‐experimental session and found to be lower than their real‐time counterparts. The study demonstrates the feasibility and value of collecting representative samples of data with simple technology. Evidence is also provided to demonstrate the statistical consistency of the HLM estimates. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于多层结构方程模型的情境效应分析—— 兼与多层线性模型比较

多层(嵌套)数据的变量关系研究, 必须借助多层模型来实现。两层模型中, 层一自变量Xij按组均值中心化, 并将组均值 置于层2截距方程式中, 可将Xij对因变量Yij的效应分解为组间和组内部分, 二者之差被称为情境效应, 称为情境变量。多层结构方程模型(MSEM)将多层线性模型(MLM)和结构方程模型(SEM)相结合, 通过设置潜变量和多指标的方法校正了MLM在情境效应分析中出现的抽样误差和测量误差, 同时解决了数据的多层(嵌套)结构和潜变量的估计问题。除了分析原理的说明, 还以班级平均竞争氛围对学生竞争表现的情境效应为例进行分析方法的示范, 并比较MSEM和MLM的异同, 随后展望了MSEM情境效应模型、情境效应无偏估计方法和情境变量研究的拓展方向。     

On growth curves and mixture models

The multilevel model of change and the latent growth model are flexible means to describe all sorts of population heterogeneity with respect to growth and development, including the presence of sub‐populations. The growth mixture model is a natural extension of these models. It comes at hand when information about sub‐populations is missing and researchers nevertheless want to retrieve developmental trajectories from sub‐populations. We argue that researchers have to make rather strong assumptions about the sub‐populations or latent trajectory classes in order to retrieve existing population differences. A simulated example is discussed, showing that a sample of repeated measures drawn from two sub‐populations easily leads to the mistaken inference of three sub‐populations, when assumptions are not met. The merits of methodological advises on this issue are discussed. It is concluded that growth mixture models should be used with understanding, and offer no free way to growth patterns in unknown sub‐populations. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

题目位置效应的概念及检测

题目位置效应(Item Position Effect, IPE)是指在剔除随机误差的影响之后, 同一道题目在不同测验间因题目位置的变化而导致题目参数的变化。IPE的存在会严重威胁依赖于项目反应理论参数不变性特征的相关应用, 比如测验等值和计算机化自适应测验。目前关于这一领域的研究主要集中于对IPE的检测, 而对所检测到的效应进行进一步的解释, 则是今后的研究重点。另外, 在不同的研究情境下深入探讨IPE, 对于基础研究领域和实践领域都具有重要意义。     

Trait rumination and response to negative evaluative lab-induced stress: neuroendocrine,affective, and cognitive outcomes

Theoretical models of depression posit that, under stress, elevated trait rumination predicts more pronounced or prolonged negative affective and neuroendocrine responses, and that trait rumination hampers removing irrelevant negative information from working memory. We examined several gaps regarding these models in the context of lab-induced stress. Non-depressed undergraduates completed a rumination questionnaire and either a negative-evaluative Trier Social Stress Test (n?=?55) or a non-evaluative control condition (n?=?69), followed by a modified Sternberg affective working memory task assessing the extent to which irrelevant negative information can be emptied from working memory. We measured shame, negative and positive affect, and salivary cortisol four times. Multilevel growth curve models showed rumination and stress interactively predicted cortisol reactivity; however, opposite predictions, greater rumination was associated with blunted cortisol reactivity to stress. Elevated trait rumination interacted with stress to predict augmented shame reactivity. Rumination and stress did not significantly interact to predict working memory performance, but under control conditions, rumination predicted greater difficulty updating working memory. Results support a vulnerability-stress model of trait rumination with heightened shame reactivity and cortisol dysregulation rather than hyper-reactivity in non-depressed emerging adults, but we cannot provide evidence that working memory processes are critical immediately following acute stress.     

青少年公正世界信念的发展轨迹及其影响因素:一项多水平分析

为探讨青少年公正世界信念的发展轨迹及其影响因素,采用公正世界信念量表（BJW）、友谊质量量表（FQ）和网络社会支持量表（OSS）对来自河南省某3所高中的518名高一学生进行两年追踪调查。结果发现：（1）青少年一般公正世界信念高于个人公正世界信念;（2）青少年一般公正世界信念呈逐步下滑趋势,而个人公正世界信念的发展趋势则相对平稳;（3）友谊质量和网络社会支持均能分别解释个人公正世界信念和一般公正世界信念发展过程中的个体差异。研究结果揭示了青少年公正世界信念发展的轨迹,为引导青少年树立正确的世界观和人生观,培养积极的社会心态提供了有益建议。     

Evaluation of the school-based smoking-prevention program "BE smokeFREE"

This article examines the impact of the school-based smoking-prevention program "BE smokeFREE" on adolescent smoking. A national representative sample of 99 schools (195 classes, 4,441 students) was used when the intervention started in November 1994. Schools were allocated to one of four groups: a comparison group (A) and three intervention groups (B, C, and D). Group B received the most comprehensive intervention. A baseline (autumn 1994) and three follow-up data collections (1995, 1996, and 1997) were conducted. There were no significant differences in smoking habits among the four groups at baseline. The smoking habits in the group that was involved in the most comprehensive intervention (group B) changed more favourably than those of students in the comparison schools over the three follow-up data collections. At the third follow-up, the proportion of students smoking weekly or more in the comparison group was 29.2%, compared with 19.6% in the model intervention group. The two less comprehensive interventions (no teacher in-service courses in group C, and no involvement of parents in group D) appeared to be less effective than the model intervention. Multilevel multiple logistic regression analyses, comparing changes in smoking habits between students in group B with those among students in the comparison schools, confirm the conclusion that the comprehensive intervention was the most effective. This school-based intervention, based on a social influence approach, proved to be effective at reducing smoking rates among participants.     

Bayesian modeling of measurement error in predictor variables using item response theory

It is shown that measurement error in predictor variables can be modeled using item response theory (IRT). The predictor variables, that may be defined at any level of an hierarchical regression model, are treated as latent variables. The normal ogive model is used to describe the relation between the latent variables and dichotomous observed variables, which may be responses to tests or questionnaires. It will be shown that the multilevel model with measurement error in the observed predictor variables can be estimated in a Bayesian framework using Gibbs sampling. In this article, handling measurement error via the normal ogive model is compared with alternative approaches using the classical true score model. Examples using real data are given.This paper is part of the dissertation by Fox (2001) that won the 2002 Psychometric Society Dissertation Award.     

Who do we trust? Differences in types of trust and beliefs in conspiracy theories between vaccinated and unvaccinated Europeans across 17 European countries

A plethora of research has highlighted that trust in science, political trust, and conspiracy theories are all important contributors to vaccine uptake behavior. In the current investigation, relying on data from 17 countries (N = 30,096) from the European Social Survey we examined how those who received (and wanted to receive the COVID-19 vaccine) compared to those who did not differ in their trust in: science, politicians and political parties, international organizations and towards people in general. We also examined whether they differed in how much they believed in conspiracy theories. Those who received (or wanted to receive) the COVID vaccine scored significantly higher in all forms of trust, and lower in conspiracy theory beliefs. A logistic regression suggested that trust in science, politicians, international organizations, as well as belief in conspiracy theories were significant predictors, even after accounting for key demographic characteristics.