An experimental analysis of decision channeling by restrictive information display

This study focuses on the effect of restrictive information display on decision performance. Specifically the study examines whether two‐channeled and one non‐channeled computerized information display systems result in significant differences in decision accuracy. The two‐channeled information display systems are designed to encourage two general information processing patterns commonly observed in the experimental literature examining multi‐alternative, multi‐attribute choice decisions: information processing by alternative and information processing by attribute. An information display program was developed which used restrictive information display to operationalize the channeled versus non‐channeled manipulation. Channeling was implemented either by displaying information only by alternative or by displaying information only by attribute. The task was an operations scheduling problem that subjects completed under three levels of time pressure. The results indicate statistically significant effects on decision accuracy for both the type of information display and time pressure manipulations. The highest decision accuracy was observed when information was displayed by alternative and when subjects were under highest levels of time pressure. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

学习支持对儿童在多媒体语境中学习英语词汇的影响

该研究旨在考察中文翻译与主题提示两种学习支持对儿童在多媒体语境中学习英语词汇的作用,为此设计了三种学习条件：无支持条件、中文翻译条件和中文翻译 主题提示条件。对学龄初期儿童在上述三种学习条件下学习英语词汇的过程和结果进行的考察和分析表明：儿童在无支持条件下的学习效果较差;中文翻译可以明显促进儿童对语句的理解,但无法提高儿童对目标词的掌握;中文翻译 主题提示条件下儿童对单词语义的掌握最好,他们表现出了较多的跟读行为,并更倾向于认为学习任务较为容易。     

Multi‐set factor analysis by means of Parafac2

We consider multi‐set data consisting of observations, k = 1,…, K (e.g., subject scores), on J variables in K different samples. We introduce a factor model for the J × J covariance matrices , k = 1,…, K, where the common part is modelled by Parafac2 and the unique variances , k = 1,…, K, are diagonal. The Parafac2 model implies a common loadings matrix that is rescaled for each k, and a common factor correlation matrix. We estimate the unique variances by minimum rank factor analysis on for each k. The factors can be chosen orthogonal or oblique. We present a novel algorithm to estimate the Parafac2 part and demonstrate its performance in a simulation study. Also, we fit our model to a data set in the literature. Our model is easy to estimate and interpret. The unique variances, the factor correlation matrix and the communalities are guaranteed to be proper, and a percentage of explained common variance can be computed for each k. Also, the Parafac2 part is rotationally unique under mild conditions.     

The Irony of Social Trust: Individual‐level and Contextual‐level Links with Protest Intention and Radical Right Support in Switzerland

This research examines how social trust translates into dynamics of mobilisation for inclusion or exclusion in Swiss cantons by studying how social trust is linked to equality‐directed protest intention versus radical right support, comparing individual‐level and contextual‐level relationships. The study is based on data from the Swiss Household Panel collected between 2002 and 2008. The impact of individual‐level and contextual‐level social trust is analysed in three‐level regression models of repeated observations, nested in individuals who are nested in cantons. The results indicate complex patterns that depend on the level at which social trust is assessed and confirm the need for a contextualised view of social trust and social capital. For individuals, higher social trust is associated with higher protest intention and lower radical right support. However, in cantons characterised by higher rates of social trust, individuals are less likely to engage in protest actions and more likely to support the radical right. Further analyses show that canton‐level social trust is intertwined with other contextual factors, suggesting that in certain configurations, that is, combined with low levels of cultural and social diversity, climates of social trust may be linked to more restricted forms of solidarity and the persistence of inequality. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

初中生函数概念发展的特点

本研究通过测验法对北京市六所中学的８０２名初一至初三的学生进行考察,研究了初中生函数要领的发展水平及其特点,结果表明,初中三个年级学生函数要领的发展,从总体上看,随着看级的增高呈上升的发展趋势,但年级结学生函数概念发展的影响不显著,制约 初中学生函数的概念发展水平的关键是,学生所受教育的质量,学生主要以接受教育的方式来获得函数概念。     

Improving an optimization‐based framework for sensitivity analysis in multi‐criteria decision‐making

The framework for sensitivity analysis in discrete multi‐criteria decision analysis developed by Rios Insua and French allows simultaneous variation of all parameters and applies to many paradigms for decision analysis. However, its computational load may inhibit use, particularly in the context of a decision conference where results are required in near real time. In order to improve on the current algorithm and its implementation, we investigate, on the one hand, an opportunistic approach aimed at reducing the number of optimization problems solved in the original framework and, on the other, an alternative framework based on distance analysis. Computational results on linear and bilinear models are reported. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing risky public investments with MUSTARD

This paper presents a practical implementation of multicriteria methodologies based on the UTA model by Jacquet‐Lagrèze and Siskos and Quasi‐UTA model by Beuthe and Scannella, which are specified with a non‐linear, but piecewise linear, additive utility function. In contrast with the general UTA model, the Quasi‐UTA specification structures the partial utilities as recursive exponential functions of only one curvature parameter. This allows for a reduction of the quantity of information necessary to build the utility function. The software MUSTARD implements different variants of these models. Firstly, it offers the basic deterministic UTA model of disaggregation, but also its first programmed stochastic version. In both cases, the software proceeds stepwise and interactively helping the decision maker to formulate the problem and state preferences between projects; in the stochastic case, the decision maker is even helped to build the criteria distributions. The Quasi‐UTA specification can be introduced in this disaggregation model. Secondly, the software offers an aggregation model whereby the Quasi‐UTA partial utility functions are built separately through specific questioning processes. The questions relating to deterministic criteria are of the ‘direct rating type’, while those of the stochastic criteria are either of the ‘variable probability’ or the ‘variable outcome’ type. The criteria weights can be assessed by the ‘swing weight’ method or by a UTA‐II side‐program. As an example as well as a test of the Quasi‐UTA aggregation approach, the paper presents its application to a real problem of selecting road investment projects in Belgium. Several experts and civil servants were interviewed, and their individual utility functions derived. The projects are ranked according to their rate of return, which is computed on the basis of the projects certain equivalent money value. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An evaluation of multi‐criteria methods in integrated assessment of climate policy

Those who conduct integrated assessments (IAs) are aware of the need to explicitly consider multiple criteria and uncertainties when evaluating policies for preventing global warming. MCDM methods are potentially useful for understanding tradeoffs and evaluating risks associated with climate policy alternatives. A difficulty facing potential MCDM users is the wide range of different techniques that have been proposed, each with distinct advantages. Methods differ in terms of validity, ease of use, and appropriateness to the problem. Alternative methods also can yield strikingly different rankings of alternatives. A workshop was held in which climate change experts and policy makers evaluated the usefulness of MCDM for IA. Participants applied several methods in the context of a hypothetical greenhouse gas policy decision. Methods compared include value and utility functions, goal programming, ELECTRE, fuzzy sets, stochastic dominance, min max regret, and several weight selection methods. Ranges, rather than point estimates, were provided for some questions to incorporate imprecision regarding weights. Additionally, several visualization methods for both deterministic and uncertain cases were used and evaluated. Analysis of method results and participant feedback through questionnaires and discussion provide the basis for conclusions regarding the use of MCDM methods for climate change policy and IA analyses. Hypotheses are examined concerning predictive and convergent validity of methods, existence of splitting bias among experts, perceived ability of methods to aid decision‐making, and whether expressing imprecision can change ranking results. Because participants gained from viewing a problem from several perspectives and results from different methods often significantly differed, it appears worthwhile to apply several MCDM methods to increase user confidence and insight. The participants themselves recommended such multimethod approaches for policymaking. Yet they preferred the freedom of unaided decision‐making most of all, challenging the MCDM community to create transparent methods that permit maximum user control. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Attribute‐based differentiation of alternatives

An intermediate step is introduced to the dialogue decision process for decision analysis. Alternatives are refined after they have been generated within a strategy table but before they are subject to more detailed evaluation. Two or more judges create a subjective mapping from alternatives to attributes that will later be mapped to criteria. In strategy tables, each of the alternative strategies consists of a coherent set of choices made across several decisions that are to be coordinated. These strategic alternatives are modified so as to increase their differentiation in the attribute space, rather than in the decision space alone. When criteria weights are unknown, the best alternative from the modified set may be superior to the best alternative from the original set. Furthermore, analysis of the resulting alternatives may yield a better mapping of the value response surface for the action space, in the sense that this mapping leads to eventual construction of a higher value alternative. Results are reported for a consulting engagement incorporating the proposed step. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.