Indeterminism, Explanation, and Luck

I first adumbrate pertinent aspectsof Robert Kane's libertarian theory of free choice oraction and an objection of luck that has been levelledagainst the theory. I then consider Kane's recentresponses to this objection. To meet these responses,I argue that the view that undetermined choices (ofthe sort implied by Kane's theory) are a matter ofluck is associated with a view about actionexplanation, to wit: when Jones does A and hisdoing of A is undetermined, and when hiscounterpart, Jones*, in the nearest possibleworld in which the past and the laws are held constantuntil the moment of choice does B instead, thereis no explanation (deterministic or indeterministic)of the difference in outcome – Jones's A-ing butJones*'s B-ing – in terms of prior reasonsor motives of either agent. Absence of such anexplanation is one crucial factor that underliesthe charge that Jones's A-ing and Jones*'sB-ing are matters of luck. I argue that thissort of luck is incompatible with responsibility.     

Assessing risky public investments with MUSTARD

This paper presents a practical implementation of multicriteria methodologies based on the UTA model by Jacquet‐Lagrèze and Siskos and Quasi‐UTA model by Beuthe and Scannella, which are specified with a non‐linear, but piecewise linear, additive utility function. In contrast with the general UTA model, the Quasi‐UTA specification structures the partial utilities as recursive exponential functions of only one curvature parameter. This allows for a reduction of the quantity of information necessary to build the utility function. The software MUSTARD implements different variants of these models. Firstly, it offers the basic deterministic UTA model of disaggregation, but also its first programmed stochastic version. In both cases, the software proceeds stepwise and interactively helping the decision maker to formulate the problem and state preferences between projects; in the stochastic case, the decision maker is even helped to build the criteria distributions. The Quasi‐UTA specification can be introduced in this disaggregation model. Secondly, the software offers an aggregation model whereby the Quasi‐UTA partial utility functions are built separately through specific questioning processes. The questions relating to deterministic criteria are of the ‘direct rating type’, while those of the stochastic criteria are either of the ‘variable probability’ or the ‘variable outcome’ type. The criteria weights can be assessed by the ‘swing weight’ method or by a UTA‐II side‐program. As an example as well as a test of the Quasi‐UTA aggregation approach, the paper presents its application to a real problem of selecting road investment projects in Belgium. Several experts and civil servants were interviewed, and their individual utility functions derived. The projects are ranked according to their rate of return, which is computed on the basis of the projects certain equivalent money value. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic pairwise comparative judgements and direct ratings of alternatives in the REMBRANDT system

The REMBRANDT system for multicriteria decision analysis consists of both the multiplicative variant of the AHP (which employs a method of pairwise comparative judgements by a decision maker to arrive at final impact scores for the alternatives under consideration) and SMART, the simple multiattribute rating technique (which utilizes direct rating of alternatives to achieve final impact scores). This paper examines the effect of imprecision or uncertainty in the decision maker's pairwise judgements or ratings of alternatives by expressing each pairwise judgement or rating as a probability distribution, and the structure of REMBRANDT's component models is exploited to derive interval judgements or interval ratings of the alternatives’ final impact scores. These interval judgements or interval ratings can be used to determine the probability of rank reversal amongst alternatives, i.e. to assess the stability of the final impact score vector. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

法律运行道德追问的两重向度

将法律运行的道德追问规定为两重向度 ,既有其学理的依据 ,又是历史给予的启示和破解现实难题的需要。对立法的道德追问不仅要考察法之形式正义和实质正义 ,而且要审视法与社会主导道德以及与广大民众心理和情感相契合的状况。对司法的道德追问则不仅要关注司法是否公正以及司法工作者是否具有良好的职业道德素质 ,而且应特别关注当下我国社会全面转型时期司法之“应然”。     

Patterns of Preference for Numerical and Verbal Probabilities

We report results of an experiment designed to test a principle formulated by Budescu and Wallsten (1995), that, when communicating uncertainty information, mode choices are sensitive to sources and degrees of vagueness. In addition, we examined subjects’ efficacy in using such uncertainty information as a function of communication mode, source, and vagueness. In phase one of the experiment, subjects in a dyad used precise (numerical) or imprecise (verbal) expressions to communicate to a remote partner precise or vague uncertainty about the likelihoods of events. Spinner outcomes were used to generate precise uncertainty while answers to almanac questions were used to elicit vague uncertainty. In phase two, subjects saw the events paired with their partners’ estimates of similar events, and were asked to gamble on one event from each pair. Communication mode preferences were measured as the relative frequency that subjects chose the numerical mode to either express or receive uncertainty information regarding the events. Efficacy was measured as the relative frequency that subjects choose from the pair the event associated with the objectively more probable uncertainty expression. Underlying uncertainty interacted with direction of communication to affect preferences for modes of expression of the probabilities. Subjects preferred precise (numerical) information, especially for precise events (spinners). For vague events (questions), their preference for precise (numerical) information was stronger when receiving than when communicating information. Similar preferences were reflected in the efficiency of subsequent gamble decisions based on the probability estimates. Specifically, decisions were more efficacious (i.e. consistent with Expected Utility) when degrees of precision in events and estimates matched. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大学生人格特质对道德认同的影响：法律意识的调节作用

为探讨大学生人格特质与道德认同的关系,及其法律意识在二者关系之间的调节作用,采用法律意识量表、道德认同量表和大五人格量表对1878名大学生进行了调查。结果显示：(1)尽责性、宜人性、开放性和外向性与道德认同、法律意识呈显著的正相关;神经质与道德认同、法律意识呈显著的负相关。(2)人格特质、道德认同、法律意识表现出了显著的性别差异,同时尽责性对道德认同的影响也存在着显著的性别差异。(3)法律意识在尽责性与宜人性对大学生道德认同的影响中起着负向调节作用。本研究结果提示,应该尊重人格特质的个体特异性,在高校进行专业的法制教育和法律意识培养,提高个体的道德认同水平。     

Moral Worth and Doing the Right Thing by Accident

Kantian conceptions of moral worth are thought to enjoy an advantage over their rivals in virtue of accommodating two plausible intuitions—that the praiseworthiness of an action is never accidental, and that how an agent might have acted in other circumstances does not determine the moral worth of her actual conduct. In this paper, I argue that neither the Kantian nor her rivals can adequately accommodate both intuitions, in as much as non-accidentality presupposes counterfactual robustness. If we are to adequately accommodate both claims, then we must reconsider the kind of non-accidentality that really matters to moral worth. I propose that the kind of non-accidentality worth caring about requires only that the agent who does what is right acts competently from morally relevant concerns. Under this account, both the Kantian and (some of) her rivals can ensure that the praiseworthiness of an action is never accidental without counting the behaviour of non-actual agents as being relevant to assessments of moral worth.     

Abusive supervision,leader-member exchange,and moral disengagement: A moderated-mediation model of organizational deviance

This paper draws from social exchange theory and social cognitive theory to explore moral disengagement as a potential mediator of the relationship between abusive supervision and organizational deviance. We also explore the moderating effect of leader-member exchange (LMX) on this mediated relationship. Results indicate that employees with abusive supervisors engaged in moral disengagement strategies and subsequently in organizational deviance behaviors. Additionally, this relationship was stronger for those higher in LMX. Important implications for management research and practice are discussed.     

Hope as an irreducible concept

I argue for a novel answer to the question “What is hope?”. On my view, rather than aiming for a compound account, i.e. analysing hope in terms of desire and belief, we should understand hope as an irreducible concept. After criticizing influential compound accounts of hope, I discuss Segal and Textor's alternative of describing hope as a primitive mental state. While Segal and Textor argue that available developments of the standard definition do not offer sufficient conditions for hope, I question the deep‐seated idea that desire and belief are even necessary conditions for hope. My suggestion is that we should take seriously the fact that we hope in a great variety of ways and should question the search for elements that are common to all cases. A promising alternative follows the Wittgensteinian idea that cases of hope are related in terms of family resemblance, i.e. are multiply realizable on the ontological level while falling under the non‐definable concept of hope.     

A meta-analysis of the relationship between moral disengagement and bullying roles in youth

Over the last several years, researchers have become increasingly interested in the influence of moral factors on bullying behaviors. This is the first meta-analytic review to exclusively examine the relationship between moral disengagement (MD) and the key bullying roles of bully, victim, defender, and bystander. Forty-seven independent samples examining a total of 43,809 children/adolescents (aged 7–19) were included in this meta-analysis. Results indicated a positive relationship between MD and bullying (r = 0.31; 95% CI [0.27, 0.34]), MD and victimization (r = 0.08; 95% CI [0.05, 0.12]), and a negative relationship between MD and defending (r = −0.11; 95% CI [−0.17, −0.04]). No significant relationship was found for MD and bystanding behavior. Moderators of bullying type (traditional vs. cyberbullying), reporting type (self vs. peer report), age, and gender were included in the analyses. The results are discussed in the context of relevant literature with particular emphasis on the importance of distinguishing between guilty and unconcerned bystanders, and the significant overlap between bullying and victimization in the cyber context.