A Test by Any Other Name: P Values,Bayes Factors,and Statistical Inference

Procedures used for statistical inference are receiving increased scrutiny as the scientific community studies the factors associated with insuring reproducible research. This note addresses recent negative attention directed at p values, the relationship of confidence intervals and tests, and the role of Bayesian inference and Bayes factors, with an eye toward better understanding these different strategies for statistical inference. We argue that researchers and data analysts too often resort to binary decisions (e.g., whether to reject or accept the null hypothesis) in settings where this may not be required.     

Beyond inference by eye: Statistical and graphing practices in JEAB, 1992‐2017

Debates about the utility of p values and correct ways to analyze data have inspired new guidelines on statistical inference by the American Psychological Association (APA) and changes in the way results are reported in other scientific journals, but their impact on the Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior (JEAB) has not previously been evaluated. A content analysis of empirical articles published in JEAB between 1992 and 2017 investigated whether statistical and graphing practices changed during that time period. The likelihood that a JEAB article reported a null hypothesis significance test, included a confidence interval, or depicted at least one figure with error bars has increased over time. Features of graphs in JEAB, including the proportion depicting single‐subject data, have not changed systematically during the same period. Statistics and graphing trends in JEAB largely paralleled those in mainstream psychology journals, but there was no evidence that changes to APA style had any direct impact on JEAB. In the future, the onus will continue to be on authors, reviewers and editors to ensure that statistical and graphing practices in JEAB continue to evolve without interfering with characteristics that set the journal apart from other scientific journals.     

Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios

Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second “opposite” scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them.     

The effects of reinforcer magnitude on timing in rats

The relation between reinforcer magnitude and timing behavior was studied using a peak procedure. Four rats received multiple consecutive sessions with both low and high levels of brain stimulation reward (BSR). Rats paused longer and had later start times during sessions when their responses were reinforced with low-magnitude BSR. When estimated by a symmetric Gaussian function, peak times also were earlier; when estimated by a better-fitting asymmetric Gaussian function or by analyzing individual trials, however, these peak-time changes were determined to reflect a mixture of large effects of BSR on start times and no effect on stop times. These results pose a significant dilemma for three major theories of timing (SET, MTS, and BeT), which all predict no effects for chronic manipulations of reinforcer magnitude. We conclude that increased reinforcer magnitude influences timing in two ways: through larger immediate after-effects that delay responding and through anticipatory effects that elicit earlier responding.     

INTERTRIAL INTERVAL DURATION AND LEARNING IN AUTISTIC CHILDREN

This study investigated the influence of intertrial interval duration on the performance of autistic children during teaching situations. The children were taught under the same conditions existing in their regular programs, except that the length of time between trials was systematically manipulated. With both multiple baseline and repeated reversal designs, two lengths of intertrial interval were employed: short intervals with the S^D for any given trial presented approximately one second following the reinforcer for the previous trial versus long intervals with the S^D presented four or more seconds following the reinforcer for the previous trial. The results showed that: (1) the short intertrial intervals always produced higher levels of correct responding than the long intervals; and (2) there were improving trends in performance and rapid acquisition with the short intertrial intervals, in contrast to minimal or no change with the long intervals. The results are discussed in terms of utilizing information about child and task characteristics in terms of selecting optimal intervals. The data suggest that manipulations made between trials have a large influence on autistic children's learning.     

Approximate interval estimation for a certain intraclass correlation coefficient

When the raters participating in a reliability study are a random sample from a larger population of raters, inferences about the intraclass correlation coefficient must be based on the three mean squares from the analysis of variance table summarizing the results: between subjects, between raters, and error. An approximate confidence interval for the parameter is presented as a function of these three mean squares.Dr. Fleiss is also with the Biometrics Research Unit of the New York State Psychiatric Institute. This work was supported in part by grant DE 04068 from the National Institute of Dental Research.     

"修辞立其诚"的语义学诠释

“修辞立其减”本为孔子读《易》解经之语,但它却对后世的文学评论及修辞学产生了深刻影响,高频率的使用还使它凝结为词——“修辞立诚”。如此,“修辞”与“立诚”在结构上成为平行并列的两个词。但从修辞角度看,二者则有密切的从属关系:“诚”内“辞”外,“诚”主“辞”从,“辞”以“诚”存。“诚”在儒家思想中的主导地位也说明,修辞应以“诚”为本,“辞”要服从并服务于“诚”。所谓“修辞立其诚”,是指以“诚”为前提并以“诚”为主导的“修辞”。     

Oral approach‐avoidance: A replication and extension for European–Portuguese phonation

Previous research revealed that mouth movements influence attitudes. Covert subvocal articulations inducing muscular contractions resembling ingestion movements were preferred over expectoration‐like movements, unveiling a relationship between vocal muscles' wandering and motivational states such as approach and avoidance. These findings, explained in terms of embodied cognition, suggest that specific movements are directly connected to, and more importantly, automatically activate concordant motivational states. The oral approach‐avoidance effect was replicated using the original stimulus set and a new set of stimulus developed for Portuguese. Results from two high‐powered (total N = 407), independent replications, revealed that the preference for inward words (over outwards) exists in both sets but to a greater extent in the pool phonetically adapted for Portuguese.     

An evaluation of progressively increasing intertrial intervals on the acquisition and generalization of three social skills

We evaluated the effects of different intertrial intervals (ITIs; time between programmed learning opportunities) on the acquisition and generalization of 2 preschoolers' social skills. Independent and generalized skills were observed only when the daily ITI was gradually increased from short to progressively longer intervals.