Evaluation of job candidates with missing information: Effects of attribute importance and interattribute correlation

How do people make evaluations when important items of information are missing? In the context of personnel evaluations or product evaluations, researchers have proposed that decision makers may predict the missing attribute based on its assumed relationship to attributes that are present. In addition, some researchers have suggested that there is a penalty for missing information. An experiment was conducted to investigate the influence of the importance of the missing attribute on the hypothesized inference effect. Hypothetical job candidates were evaluated based on one or two attributes. The correlation between the attributes was varied between groups of subjects as was the importance of one of the attributes. The pattern of ratings of candidates with missing information varied significantly with the correlation condition when the missing attribute was very important, but did not vary as much when the missing attribute was less important. The results were generally consistent with the predictions of the Inferred Information Model (Johnson and Levin, 1985). On average, candidates with missing information were rated lower than comparable candidates with complete information and the missing attribute at an average level.     

Caveats on a process-tracing measure and a remedy

In process-tracing studies, a frequently used index describes whether information selection behavior is attribute — or alternativewise. The performance of this index is investigated under the assumption that subjects select information in a random fashion. The results show that the index may lead to inaccurate conclusions regarding the information-acquisition strategy of a subject. In addition, a Monte Carlo study is conducted that examines the sensitivity of the index to strategy changes. An alternative index is derived and a latent-class model is proposed for a parsimonious representation of individual differences in information acquisition.     

高校心理咨询师多重关系情境与决策类型的研究

为探索高校咨询师面临的多重关系伦理情境、决策过程,对访谈17名高校心理咨询师的资料进行分析。结果：常见情境主要包括接送礼物承载的新关系、来访者和咨询师除咨询关系外的师生关系、咨询师与和来访者有关的第三人有关系、咨询师在咨询室之外的场所偶遇来访者、来访者有咨询师的联系方式、来访者和咨询师有身体接触等。决策表现为两种：经验主导型,决策时未意识到处于伦理情境只凭经验决策;伦理主导型,决策时意识到处在伦理情境。结论：高校心理咨询存在一些特殊多重关系,心理咨询师需增加具有伦理意识的决策。     

What if I am the one? Measuring individual differences in emotional sensitivity to probability and emotional reactivity to possibility

Current theories of risk perception point to the powerful role of emotion and the neglect of probabilistic information in the face of risk, but these tendencies differ across individuals. We propose a method for measuring individuals' emotional sensitivity to probability to assess how feelings about probabilities, rather than the probabilities themselves, influence decisions. Participants gave affective ratings (worry or excitement) to 14 risky events, each with a specified probability ranging from 1 in 10 to 1 in 10,000,000. For each participant, we regressed these emotional responses against item probabilities, estimating a slope (the degree to which emotional responses change with probability) and an intercept (the emotional reaction to an event with a fixed probability). These two parameters were treated as individual difference scores and included in models predicting reactions to several health risk scenarios. Both emotional sensitivity to probability (slope) and emotional reactivity to possibility (intercept) significantly predicted responses to these scenarios, above and beyond the predictive power of other well‐established individual difference measures.     

The Influence of Perceived Deservingness on Policy Decisions Regarding Aid to the Poor

In the current climate of welfare reform, it is important to understand how perceptions of the poor affect policy decisions. This paper examines how people distinguish between the undeserving poor and the deserving poor, and how this differentiation affects policy decisions. Survey respondents rated each policy in a set of hypothetical policies on a liberal-conservative continuum. Analyses were then conducted to explore differences in the respondents' likelihood of recommending the most liberal and the most conservative of these policies. Study 1 demonstrated that liberal policies were more likely to be recommended and conservative policies were less likely to be recommended when the target group was perceived to be deserving rather than undeserving. Study 2 replicated this effect of perceived deservingness and demonstrated an effect of attribution of responsibility. That is, liberal policies were more likely to be recommended and conservative policies were less likely to be recommended when the responsibility for the target's poverty was attributed to society rather than to the individual.     

Random error reduction in analytic hierarchies: a comparison of holistic and decompositional decision strategies

The principle of ‘divide and conquer’ (DAC) suggests that complex decision problems should be decomposed into smaller, more manageable parts, and that these parts should be logically aggregated to derive an overall value for each alternative. Decompositional procedures have been contrasted with holistic evaluations that require decision makers to simultaneously consider all the relevant attributes of the alternatives under consideration (Fischer, 1977 ). One area where decompositional procedures have a clear advantage over holistic procedures is in the reduction of random error (Ravinder, 1992 ; Ravinder and Kleinmuntz, 1991 ; Kleinmuntz, 1990 ). Adopting the framework originally developed by Ravinder and colleagues, this paper details the results of a study of the random error variances associated with another popular multi‐criteria decision‐making technique, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); (Saaty, 1977 , 1980 ), as well as the random error variances of a holistic version of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (Jensen, 1983 ). In addition, data concerning various psychometric properties (e.g. the convergent validity and temporal stability) and values of AHP inconsistency are reported for both the decompositional and holistic evaluations. The results of the study show that the Ravinder and Kleinmuntz ( 1991 ) error‐propagation framework extends to the AHP and decompositional AHP judgments are more consistent than their holistic counterparts. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Games of luck and games of chance: the effect of luck- versus chance-orientation on gambling decisions

Chance and luck are conceived as two distinct causal agents that effect different results. The present study examined the proposition that persons who habitually attribute the outcome of random events to chance (chance-oriented persons) and those who prefer to attribute such outcomes to luck (luck-oriented persons) cope differently with decision making under uncertainty. Chance-oriented persons decide according to given or estimated odds that define the decision problem. Luck-oriented persons, on the other hand, rely on self-attributions of personal luck, and ignore the probabilities of decision outcomes. The hypothesized qualitative difference between the approaches of chance- and luck-oriented persons to decision making under uncertainty was supported substantially by the findings. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The dynamics of purchasing an electric vehicle – A prospective longitudinal study of the decision-making process

This paper presents the results of a longitudinal prospective study which followed 113 people interested in the purchase of an electric vehicle for a period of two months. Based on an adapted stage model of self-regulated behavioral change (Bamberg, 2013b), a short online questionnaire with a stage diagnostic and the measurement of central model constructs was administered to the participants every second day. The analysis shows that 85% of transitions between the stages occur along the paths of the stage model. Stage transitions are preceded by increases in goal intentions and implementation intentions during the week before the transition. Intentions are predicted by most of the expected model constructs, but the effects were different on the between-person and the within-person level. The average stage durations are between two and three weeks. Implications of the study for research on stage models and practice are discussed.     

An interactive procedure for learning about preferences: Case study of a portfolio manager

This paper presents a new interactive procedure for learning and interpreting the choices available to a decision maker confronted with a discrete decision problem. The procedure guides a decision maker through the evaluation process, has an ability ‘to learn’ from previous choices and generates a set of rules that describe a decision maker's posterior preferences. The validity of the procedure was tested by creating an investment portfolio. The emphasis of the application is on assisting the portfolio manager to determine the decision consistency of a given portfolio selection process.     

Thinking about decisions: An integrative approach of person and task factors

Decisions vary. They may vary in both content and complexity. People also vary. An important way that people vary is how much they think. Some prior research investigating thinking and decision making largely conflicts with most traditional decision theories. For example, if considering an array of products to choose from, thinking more about the alternative's attributes should lead to a better decision. However, some research indicates that thinking more may also lead to focusing on irrelevant aspects of the decision and a less optimal outcome. We propose that this conflict in the literature exists because of a failure to consider the interaction between the individual and the decision task. To test this, we used separate methodologies that enhance or attenuate a person's thinking. In Study 1, we selected people who were especially high or low in need for cognition and had them complete a robust decision-making inventory, which included both complex and simple tasks. In Study 2, we manipulated participant's level of glucose, which acts as the brain's fuel to enhance or attenuate thinking ability. Both studies provide insight for understanding our central tenant that more thought leads to better decisions in complex tasks but does not influence simple decisions. These findings show how the individual's thinking can interact with the constructive elements of the task to shape decision choice.