多级评分认知诊断模型述评

认知诊断评估旨在探讨个体内部的知识掌握结构,并提供关于学生优缺点的详细诊断信息,以促进个体的全面发展。当前研究者已开发了大量0-1评分的认知诊断模型,但对于多级评分认知诊断模型的研究还比较少。本文对已有的多级评分认知诊断模型进行了归纳,介绍了模型的假设,计量特征以及适用范围,为实际应用者和研究者在多级评分认知诊断模型的比较和选用上提供借鉴和参考。最后,对未来关于多级评分诊断模型的研究方向进行了展望。     

Selecting a new technology strategy using multiattribute,multilevel decision trees

Research indicates that selecting a strategy to best exploit a new technology is a complex decision-making process. The task involves making a series of decisions with multiple alternatives, each to be evaluated by multiple criteria whose values have high levels of uncertainty. This paper presents a methodology for modelling a new technology decision using decision trees and an optimizing algorithm. A problem of a mining company considering the adoption of new technology is used to illustrate the decision-making task and modelling methodology. A numerical solution to the case demonstrates the potential of the optimizing technique in strategy selection.     

Testing two variances for superiority/non-inferiority and equivalence: Using the exhaustion algorithm for sample size allocation with cost

The equality of two group variances is frequently tested in experiments. However, criticisms of null hypothesis statistical testing on means have recently arisen and there is interest in other types of statistical tests of hypotheses, such as superiority/non-inferiority and equivalence. Although these tests have become more common in psychology and social sciences, the corresponding sample size estimation for these tests is rarely discussed, especially when the sampling unit costs are unequal or group sizes are unequal for two groups. Thus, for finding optimal sample size, the present study derived an initial allocation by approximating the percentiles of an F distribution with the percentiles of the standard normal distribution and used the exhaustion algorithm to select the best combination of group sizes, thereby ensuring the resulting power reaches the designated level and is maximal with a minimal total cost. In this manner, optimization of sample size planning is achieved. The proposed sample size determination has a wide range of applications and is efficient in terms of Type I errors and statistical power in simulations. Finally, an illustrative example from a report by the Health Survey for England, 1995–1997, is presented using hypertension data. For ease of application, four R Shiny apps are provided and benchmarks for setting equivalence margins are suggested.     

Exploring Processes in Day-to-Day Parent–Adolescent Conflict and Angry Mood: Evidence for Circular Causality

Parent–adolescent conflict has been studied both as a precursor of long-term macrolevel developmental risks and as an outcome of microlevel, moment-to-moment interaction patterns. However, the family-level processes underlying the maintenance or regulation of conflict in daily life are largely overlooked. A meso-level understanding of parent–adolescent conflict offers important practical insights that have direct implications for interventions. The present study explores day-to-day reciprocal processes and carryover in parents’ and adolescents’ experiences of anger and conflict. Daily diary data provided by parent–adolescent dyads (N = 151) from two-caregiver households (adolescents: 61.59% female, mean age = 14.60 years) over 21 days were examined using a multivariate Poisson multilevel model to evaluate the circular causality principle in parents’ and adolescents’ daily conflict and anger. Findings offer empirical support for the theory, suggesting that parents’ and adolescents’ anger and conflict exist together in a feedback loop wherein conflict is both a consequence of past anger and also an antecedent of future anger, both within and across persons. Increased understanding of the daily interaction patterns and maintenance of parent–adolescent conflict can guide more informed, targeted, and well-timed interventions intended to ameliorate the consequences of problematic parent–adolescent conflict sequences.     

To Challenge the Morning Lark and the Night Owl: Using Smartphone Sensing Data to Investigate Day–Night Behaviour Patterns

For decades, day–night patterns in behaviour have been investigated by asking people about their sleep–wake timing, their diurnal activity patterns, and their sleep duration. We demonstrate that the increasing digitalization of lifestyle offers new possibilities for research to investigate day–night patterns and related traits with the help of behavioural data. Using smartphone sensing, we collected in vivo data from 597 participants across several weeks and extracted behavioural day–night pattern indicators. Using this data, we explored three popular research topics. First, we focused on individual differences in day–night patterns by investigating whether ‘morning larks’ and ‘night owls’ manifest in smartphone-sensed behavioural indicators. Second, we examined whether personality traits are related to day–night patterns. Finally, exploring social jetlag, we investigated whether traits and work weekly day–night behaviours influence day–night patterns on weekends. Our findings highlight that behavioural data play an essential role in understanding daily routines and their relations to personality traits. We discuss how psychological research can integrate new behavioural approaches to study personality.     

Psychometric and Validity Issues in Machine Learning Approaches to Personality Assessment: A Focus on Social Media Text Mining

In the age of big data, substantial research is now moving toward using digital footprints like social media text data to assess personality. Nevertheless, there are concerns and questions regarding the psychometric and validity evidence of such approaches. We seek to address this issue by focusing on social media text data and (i) conducting a review of psychometric validation efforts in social media text mining (SMTM) for personality assessment and discussing additional work that needs to be done; (ii) considering additional validity issues from the standpoint of reference (i.e. ‘ground truth’) and causality (i.e. how personality determines variations in scores derived from SMTM); and (iii) discussing the unique issues of generalizability when validating SMTM for personality assessment across different social media platforms and populations. In doing so, we explicate the key validity and validation issues that need to be considered as a field to advance SMTM for personality assessment, and, more generally, machine learning personality assessment methods. © 2020 European Association of Personality Psychology     

Applying theory to the black box: A model for empirically scoring biodata

Despite being an effective predictor of job performance, empirically keyed biodata assessments have been criticized as black box empiricism unlikely to generalize to new contexts. This paper introduces a model that challenges this perspective, explicating how biodata content, job demands, and criterion variables collectively influence the construct validity, and generalizability of empirically scored biodata. Across two field studies, expected changes in scale correlations with external measures were found that coincided with changes in the contextual similarity between calibration and holdout contexts, the criteria used, and the content validity of biodata items. Collectively, this paper offers a framework that helps understand and optimize empirical biodata keying in practice, furthering confidence for their use in applied settings.     

Maximizing data quality and shortening survey time: Three-form planned missing data survey design

Simulation studies have shown the three-form planned missing data design efficiently collects high quality data while reducing participant burden. This methodology is rarely used in sport and exercise psychology. Therefore, we conducted a re-sampling study with existing sport and exercise psychology survey data to test how three-form planned missing data survey design implemented with different item distribution approaches effect constructs’ internal measurement structure and validity. Results supported the efficacy of the three-form planned missing data survey design for cross-sectional data collection. Sample sizes of at least 300 (i.e., 100 per form) are recommended for having unbiased parameter estimates. It is also recommended items be distributed across survey forms to have representation of each facet of a construct on every form, and that a select few of these items be included across all survey forms. Further guidelines for three-form surveys based upon the results of this resampling study are provided.     

统计学习的认知神经机制及其与语言的关系

统计学习是指个体在连续刺激流中发现转移概率等统计规律的过程, 在Saffran等(1996)的经典婴儿语音切分研究中首次被提出。大量研究证实了统计学习的普遍存在, 近期学界开始关注统计学习的特异性及其对认知的影响, 尤其是从学习过程及其特异性两个方面阐述统计学习的认知神经机制并揭示其和语言的交互作用。未来应从脑和行为的多模态数据视角, 丰富统计学习结果的行为和神经指标, 考察不同类型统计学习过程的动态神经活动模式, 建立统计学习行为和脑的关联, 深化对统计学习认知神经机制的认识, 在统计学习与语言交互作用的基础上, 从成人二语学习切入结合音乐统计学习训练探讨促进语言学习的统计学习干预手段。     

时变效应模型及在密集追踪数据分析中的应用

密集追踪数据通常蕴含了心理过程的详细变化信息,反映了某些心理的复杂变化过程。时变效应模型用函数替代恒定的系数,可描述密集追踪数据中随时间推移心理的动态变化过程和时变效应,是分析复杂心理过程的有效方法。在介绍时变效应模型的原理后,通过模拟研究考察模型的表现,结果显示:(1)样本量增加可降低函数估计的误差;(2)惩罚样条法的节点数选择与函数的复杂度有关,函数越复杂,所需节点越多;(3)样本量与节点数对函数估计误差的交互效应不显著。进一步应探讨测量次数、数据分布形态、数据缺失等如何影响模型的表现。