整合后验信息的多分属性认知诊断信效度指标

分类一致性和准确性是认知诊断评估中的重要指标,前者反映信度问题,后者反映效度问题。已有研究提出的指标均是基于二分属性,而多分属性的后验概率分布和属性边际概率分布均不同于二分属性,需要构建新指标来衡量多分属性情景下的信效度。本研究基于二分思想,构建出二元式信息指标用于计算多分属性测验中的信效度,并通过实验设计考察了新指标在多种影响因素中的表现,验证了新指标的有效性。最后,为多分属性诊断测验的编制提供了建议,并提出未来研究方向。     

Happy but overconfident: positive affect leads to inaccurate metacomprehension

When learning from text, it is important that learners not only comprehend the information provided but also accurately monitor and judge their comprehension, which is known as metacomprehension accuracy. To investigate the role of a learner’s affective state for text comprehension and metacomprehension accuracy, we conducted an experiment with N?=?103 university students in whom we induced positive, negative, or neutral affect. Positive affect resulted in poorer text comprehension than neutral affect. Positive affect also led to overconfident predictions, whereas negative and neutral affect were both associated with quite accurate predictions. Independent of affect, postdictions were rather underconfident. The results suggest that positive affect bears processing disadvantages for achieving deep comprehension and adequate prediction accuracy. Given that postdictions were more accurate, practice tests might represent an effective instructional method to help learners in a positive affective state to accurately judge their text comprehension.     

Task specificity and the timing of discrete aiming movements

In discrete aiming movements the task criteria of time-minimization to a spatial target (e.g., Fitts, 1954) and time-matching to a spatial-temporal goal (e.g., Schmidt et al., 1979) tend to produce different functions of the speed-accuracy trade-off. Here we examined whether the task-related movement speed-accuracy characteristics were due to differential space-time trade-offs in time-matching, velocity-matching and time-minimizing task goals. Twenty participants performed 100 aiming trials for each of 15 combinations of task-type (3) and space-time condition (5). The prevalence of the primary types of sub-movement (none, pre-peak, post-peak, undershooting and overshooting) was determined from the kinematics of the movement trajectory. There were comparable distributions of trajectory sub-movement profiles and space-time movement outcomes across the three tasks at the short movement duration that became increasingly dissimilar over decreasing movement velocity and increasing movement time conditions. Movement time was the most influential variable in mediating sub-movement characteristics and the spatial/temporal outcome accuracy and variability of discrete aiming tasks – a role that was magnified in the explicit task demands of time-matching. The time-matching and time-minimization task goals in discrete aiming induce qualitatively different control processes that progressively contribute beyond the minimal time conditions to task-specific space-time accuracy and variability characteristics of the respective movement speed-accuracy functions.     

Two field studies on the effects of alcohol on eyewitness identification,confidence, and decision times

In two field studies, bar tenants (Ns = 86 and 190, respectively) were successively approached by confederates C1 and C2 on a night out. Confederate C3 then presented participants with a six‐person target‐absent or target‐present lineup concerning C1 or C2 (immediate test). Several days later, participants viewed a lineup regarding the confederate they had not attempted to identify earlier (C1/C2; delayed test). An immediate compared with a delayed, sober identification test did not increase the risk of a false identification decision. A blood alcohol concentration of 0.06–0.07% best discriminated accurate from inaccurate decisions. Choosers with a blood alcohol concentration ≤ 0.06% showed excellent calibration and little overconfidence, and their confidence was a strong indicator of accuracy (i.e., good resolution). Choosers with a higher intoxication level displayed poor calibration and strong overconfidence. Nonchoosers were generally poorly calibrated. Combined analyses showed a negative effect of intoxication on one's ability to discriminate the target from nontargets.     

儿童同伴接纳知觉准确性及偏差与孤独感的关系:一项交叉滞后研究

以515名小学3年级到6年级的儿童为研究对象,采用交叉滞后研究设计,探讨同伴接纳知觉准确性和偏差与孤独感之间的关系。研究中,由儿童评定自己对同班每个同学的喜欢程度,预计同班同学对自己的喜欢程度,并完成社交自我知觉和孤独感量表。结果表明:(1)同伴接纳知觉绝对准确性与孤独感相关不显著,但同伴接纳知觉相对准确性可以显著预测当前和一年后的孤独感。(2)同伴接纳知觉偏差与孤独感具有双向影响作用,积极同伴接纳知觉偏差有利于降低儿童的孤独感,并且孤独感能正向预测后期的同伴接纳知觉偏差。     

小学高年级学生的学习判断绝对准确性及预见偏差

本研究以小学高年级学生为被试,选取高熟悉度的具体名词组成的联结词对为实验材料,考察不同判断模式下学习判断的准确性及预见偏差。研究发现:(1)小学高年级学生的学习判断绝对准确性存在年级差异。总体来看,小学六年级学生在即时判断和延迟判断模式下都具有较好的绝对准确性,而四年级和五年级学生在即时判断时出现显著的高估,而在延迟判断模式下具有较好的绝对准确性。具体分析正向词对和反向词对的准确性发现,在即时判断模式下,五、六年级学生的正向联结词对有较好的准确性,而四年级的正向联结词对出现高估;三个年级的学生的反向词对都出现高估。在延迟判断模式下,三个年级学生在正向词对和反向词对上都有较好的准确性。(2)小学五年级学生的学习判断开始出现预见偏差。(3)延迟判断能够提高小学高年级学生的学习判断准确性,减小甚至消除预见偏差。     

Turning failures into successes: a methodological shortcoming in empirical research on surrogate accuracy

Decision making for incompetent patients is a much-discussed topic in bioethics. According to one influential decision making standard, the substituted judgment standard, a surrogate decision maker ought to make the decision that the incompetent patient would have made, had he or she been competent. Empirical research has been conducted in order to find out whether surrogate decision makers are sufficiently good at doing their job, as this is defined by the substituted judgment standard. This research investigates to what extent surrogates are able to predict what the patient would have preferred in the relevant circumstances. In this paper we address a methodological shortcoming evident in a significant number of studies. The mistake consists in categorizing responses that only express uncertainty as predictions that the patient would be positive to treatment, on the grounds that the clinical default is to provide treatment unless it is refused. We argue that this practice is based on confusion and that it risks damaging the research on surrogate accuracy.

认知诊断评价中测验结构的优化设计

Q矩阵是认知诊断评价的基础和核心要素, 它反映了测验的构念和内容设计, 直接影响着测验诊断分类的效果。本文采用Monte Carlo模拟, 研究了6种属性层级关系下, 不同的Q矩阵设计对于认知诊断效果的影响。用模式判准率的均值和标准差分别从分类准确性和稳定性的角度来评价诊断效果。实验结果表明：(1) 不同属性层级关系下, 分类准确性会随着测验长度的增加而提高, 但当测验长度增加到一定程度时, 会出现“天花板效应”; (2) Q矩阵中R*的个数(NR*)会影响测验的分类准确性及稳定性：NR*越大, 测验的分类稳定性越高, 当测验长度为属性个数的整数倍, 且NR*为测验长度相对属性个数的最大奇数倍时分类准确性最高; (3) Q矩阵中除R*以外的项目考察的属性个数会随着属性层级关系的不同对测验的分类准确性和稳定性产生不同的影响。根据实验结果, 本研究提出了进行诊断评价时Q矩阵优化设计的一些建议。     

New multinomial models for the Chechile-Meyer task

This paper provides a critique of the Chechile and Meyer (J. Math. Psychol. 13 (1976) 269) multinomial processing tree (MPT) models that were generated for the measurement of storage and retrieval components of the correct recall rate. These models were developed for a specific test procedure that involved the random mixing of recall and recognition trials. A key problem with the Chechile and Meyer (J. Math. Psychol. 13 (1976) 269) models is the validity of an assumption made for foil recognition test trials. Three new MPT models for obtaining separate storage and retrieval measures are provided. These new models circumvent the difficulties of the Chechile and Meyer (J. Math. Psychol. 13 (1976) 269) models. Both maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) and population-parameter mapping (PPM) estimates (discussed in Chechile (J. Math. Psychol. 42 (1998) 432)) are provided for the model parameters. Monte Carlo studies were conducted to compare the relative accuracy of the MLE and PPM storage estimates. Both methods have the same average error rate for samples that are very large in size; however, for all the more practical sample sizes, the PPM estimates were more accurate. Statistical methods for model selection were also developed and tested. Finally, the new models were used to reanalyze some existing data. The new analyses provide strong validation evidence for the new models.     

3、4岁儿童数数的规则及其策略运用的研究

数数能力是儿童用于建构其数学知识系统的重要工具,是儿童早期获得的最基本的数认知能力之一。本研究以234名3、4岁儿童为被试,采用个别测查法对儿童数数的规则及其策略运用进行了考察。研究发现：(1)随着数列数目的增大,3、4岁儿童数数精确性呈下降趋势,但4岁儿童在各项任务上的数数精确性显着高于3岁儿童;(2)3、4岁儿童在数7、10、15、30任务上的错误表现有显着差别;(3）3、4岁儿童数数策略运用存在显着差别．协方差分析显示。策略使用在数7和数10任务上具有显着效应。