The Child and Adolescent Functional Assessment Scale (CAFAS): Review and Current Status

Measures of impairment in psychological and behavioral functioning have a long history in the field of children's mental health, and appear particularly useful in eligibility determination, treatment planning, and outcome evaluation of services for children and adolescents with serious emotional disturbance (SED). One recently developed multidimensional measure of functional impairment—the Child and Adolescent Functional Assessment Scale (CAFAS; K. Hodges, 1989, 1997)—has enjoyed widespread use nationwide. It has been adopted as a tool for making treatment eligibility decisions and documenting outcomes on a statewide level in more than 20 states and on a local level in dozens of research and demonstration projects. In this paper, the technical merits of the CAFAS are closely examined, with the conclusion that empirical evidence is lacking to support its valid use in making the types of treatment decisions for which it is currently being employed across the nation. Furthermore, there appears to be little concern among mental health researchers, practitioners, administrators, and state legislators about these apparent limitations of the CAFAS. The potential benefits of establishing objective and valid level-of-need criteria, using the CAFAS are numerous and the interest in doing so is clear; however, the psychometric limitations of the scale identified in this review need to be addressed before its full potential can be realized.     

Psychoanalysis and Diplomacy: Part III. Potentials for and Obstacles Against Collaboration

Given the pervasive influence of Realpolitik over government and the study of international relations, and some inherent difficulties within the field of psychoanalysis, it is not surprising that political science and psychoanalysis remain distant cousins. Part III in this series on diplomacy and psychoanalysis discusses obstacles against collaboration between these two disciplines, but also points to areas where collaboration is possible and can be useful.     

A local model of concurrent performance

Concurrent procedures may be conceptualized as consisting of two pairs of schedules with only one pair operating at a time. One schedule of each pair arranges reinforcers for staying in the current alternative, and the other schedule arranges reinforcers for switching to the other alternative. These pairs alternate operation as the animal switches between choices. This analysis of the contingencies suggests that variables operating within an alternative produce behavior that conforms to the generalized matching law. Rats were exposed to one pair of stay and switch schedules in each condition, and the probabilities of reinforcement varied across conditions. Both run length and visit duration were power functions of the ratio of the probabilities of reinforcement for staying and switching. The local model, a model of performance on concurrent procedures, was derived from this power function. Performance on concurrent schedules was synthesized from the performances on the separate pairs. Both the generalized matching law and the local model fitted the synthesized concurrent performances. These results are consistent with the view that the contingencies in the alternative, the probability of stay and switch reinforcement, are responsible for performance consistent with the generalized matching law. These results are compatible with momentary maximizing and molar maximizing accounts of concurrent performance. Models of concurrent performance that posit comparisons among the alternatives are not easily applied to these results.     

Bayesian estimation and testing of structural equation models

The Gibbs sampler can be used to obtain samples of arbitrary size from the posterior distribution over the parameters of a structural equation model (SEM) given covariance data and a prior distribution over the parameters. Point estimates, standard deviations and interval estimates for the parameters can be computed from these samples. If the prior distribution over the parameters is uninformative, the posterior is proportional to the likelihood, and asymptotically the inferences based on the Gibbs sample are the same as those based on the maximum likelihood solution, for example, output from LISREL or EQS. In small samples, however, the likelihood surface is not Gaussian and in some cases contains local maxima. Nevertheless, the Gibbs sample comes from the correct posterior distribution over the parameters regardless of the sample size and the shape of the likelihood surface. With an informative prior distribution over the parameters, the posterior can be used to make inferences about the parameters underidentified models, as we illustrate on a simple errors-in-variables model.We thank David Spiegelhalter for suggesting applying the Gibbs sampler to structural equation models to the first author at a 1994 workshop in Wiesbaden. We thank Ulf Böckenholt, Chris Meek, Marijtje van Duijn, Clark Glymour, Ivo Molenaar, Steve Klepper, Thomas Richardson, Teddy Seidenfeld, and Tom Snijders for helpful discussions, mathematical advice, and critiques of earlier drafts of this paper.     

Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic

We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chinese college students' general and relationship‐specific representations of adult attachment: Variable‐centred and person‐centred analysis

Formerly, researchers often treated adult attachment as a trait‐like construct with consistency across relationship contexts. However, recent studies have shown that people possess multiple relationship‐specific attachment representations, and inter‐correlations among them are only in a small‐to‐medium range. The aim of this study is to test whether these variable‐centred results could be replicated in China and further supplement them with a person‐centred analysis focusing on identifying prototypical patterns of multiple working models across relationships. We administrated measurements of general and four relationship‐specific (mother/father/best friend/romantic partner) working models and indicators of psychological adjustment upon 302 Chinese college students. Results from variable‐centred analysis demonstrated the cross‐relationship variability in working models. Furthermore, global indicators of psychological adjustment were better predicted by general models, while relationship‐specific indicators were better predicted by corresponding relationship‐specific models. These results largely replicate previous Western studies, supporting the existence of multiple attachment representations in China. In person‐centred analysis, a latent profile analysis identified four typical classes of working model profiles: all‐average, all‐secure, romantic‐insecure and peer‐secure. These classes differed not only in the cross‐relationship variability of their working models, but also in their levels of psychological adjustment. These interesting patterns may have theoretical implications and are worthy of further examination.     

Toward the Scientific Study of Polytheism: Beyond Forced‐Choice Measures of Religious Belief

This article argues that zero‐sum, forced‐choice approaches to measuring religious belief do not work well outside of the Abrahamic world. Positive‐sum approaches to measuring religious beliefs (in the plural) are better suited to the study of polytheistic societies. Using results from a nationally representative survey conducted in 2011 Taiwan, we demonstrate that in a polytheistic society like Taiwan, religious belief is not zero sum. We also contrast our results with those of the Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSCS), and seek to show that our positive‐sum approach to measuring religious beliefs can help us better understand the disparate causes and consequences of different religious beliefs in polytheistic societies. The challenge of Christocentrism in quantitative studies of religion is also discussed.     

COMPUTER‐ASSISTED MEASUREMENT OF WOUND SIZE ASSOCIATED WITH SELF‐INJURIOUS BEHAVIOR

We evaluated an inexpensive, efficient, and noninvasive technique for measuring tissue damage produced by self‐injurious behavior (SIB). The technique involved computerized measurement of wound surface area (WSA) based on digital photographs. In Study 1, we compared photographic measurement to a more commonly used procedure, transparency measurement, in estimating WSA of 20 wound models. Results showed that both methods were reliable and that there was a high degree of correspondence between the 2 sets of measures. In Study 2, we compared photographic WSA measures to direct‐observation measures in documenting changes over time in the SIB exhibited by a woman with Prader‐Willi syndrome. Results showed that increases and decreases in observed SIB during baseline and treatment conditions corresponded with changes in WSA measures, indicating that the computer‐assisted photographic technique may be useful as a corroborative measure or as a primary measure when direct observation of SIB is not feasible.     

OBSERVER TRAINING REVISITED: A COMPARISON OF IN VIVO AND VIDEO INSTRUCTION

We compared the effects of 2 observer‐training procedures. In vivo training involved practice during actual treatment sessions. Video training involved practice while watching progressively more complex simulations. Fifty‐nine undergraduate students entered 1 of the 2 training conditions sequentially according to an ABABAB design. Results showed that the 2 training methods produced almost identical scores on a posttraining observational test; however, the video method required fewer training sessions to complete.     

Understanding memory impairment with memory models and hierarchical Bayesian analysis

The study of human episodic memory is a topic that interests cognitive and mathematical psychologists as well as clinicians interested in the diagnosis and assessment of Alzheimer’s disease and related disorders (ADRD). In this paper, we use simple cognitive models for the recognition and recall tasks typically applied in clinical assessments of ADRD to study memory performance in ADRD patients. Our models make use of hierarchical Bayesian methods as a way to model individual differences in patient performance and to facilitate the modeling of performance changes that occur during multiple recall tasks. We show how the models are able to account for different aspects of patient performance, and also discuss some of the predictive capabilities of the model. We conclude with a discussion on the scope to improve on our results by discussing the link between memory theory in psychology and clinical practice.