Prediction of true test scores from observed item scores and ancillary data

In many educational tests which involve constructed responses, a traditional test score is obtained by adding together item scores obtained through holistic scoring by trained human raters. For example, this practice was used until 2008 in the case of GRE^®General Analytical Writing and until 2009 in the case of TOEFL^® iBT Writing. With use of natural language processing, it is possible to obtain additional information concerning item responses from computer programs such as e‐rater^®. In addition, available information relevant to examinee performance may include scores on related tests. We suggest application of standard results from classical test theory to the available data to obtain best linear predictors of true traditional test scores. In performing such analysis, we require estimation of variances and covariances of measurement errors, a task which can be quite difficult in the case of tests with limited numbers of items and with multiple measurements per item. As a consequence, a new estimation method is suggested based on samples of examinees who have taken an assessment more than once. Such samples are typically not random samples of the general population of examinees, so that we apply statistical adjustment methods to obtain the needed estimated variances and covariances of measurement errors. To examine practical implications of the suggested methods of analysis, applications are made to GRE General Analytical Writing and TOEFL iBT Writing. Results obtained indicate that substantial improvements are possible both in terms of reliability of scoring and in terms of assessment reliability.     

Exploring Factor Model Parameters across Continuous Variables with Local Structural Equation Models

Using an empirical data set, we investigated variation in factor model parameters across a continuous moderator variable and demonstrated three modeling approaches: multiple-group mean and covariance structure (MGMCS) analyses, local structural equation modeling (LSEM), and moderated factor analysis (MFA). We focused on how to study variation in factor model parameters as a function of continuous variables such as age, socioeconomic status, ability levels, acculturation, and so forth. Specifically, we formalized the LSEM approach in detail as compared with previous work and investigated its statistical properties with an analytical derivation and a simulation study. We also provide code for the easy implementation of LSEM. The illustration of methods was based on cross-sectional cognitive ability data from individuals ranging in age from 4 to 23 years. Variations in factor loadings across age were examined with regard to the age differentiation hypothesis. LSEM and MFA converged with respect to the conclusions. When there was a broad age range within groups and varying relations between the indicator variables and the common factor across age, MGMCS produced distorted parameter estimates. We discuss the pros of LSEM compared with MFA and recommend using the two tools as complementary approaches for investigating moderation in factor model parameters.     

Factorial invariance and latent mean differences of the Beck Depression Inventory – second edition (BDI-II) across gender in South African university students

This study examined the measurement invariance of scores from the BDI-II as well as the differences in latent mean scores by gender. Participants were 919 South African university students (females = 72%). They completed the BDI-II, which is a measure of Negative Attitude (NA), Performance Difficulty (PD), Somatic Complaints (S) and Depression (D). The data were analysed utilising multigroup confirmatory factor analyses (MCFA). Evidence of factorial invariance was established at the level of configural, metric and scalar invariance, across gender groups. Females scored significantly higher latent means on measures of NA and S compared to males.     

Group‐analytic network process for balancing stakeholder views on fire protection of steel‐framed buildings

To select appropriate fire protection options for buildings during their design stage, economic, safety, environmental, and societal criteria need to be accounted for. The divergent and sometimes conflictual desires from different fire design stakeholders involved in the process present a multicriteria decision problem. Design decision criteria and fire protection options can be interdependent, and so there is a need to manage these desires with an advanced decision analysis technique, thereby reducing uncertainties in the complex decision‐making process. The aim of this paper is to use the weighted/geometric mean method‐analytic network process (W/GMM‐ANP) to balance the opinions of fire design stakeholders extracted from 42 structured stakeholder interviews on selecting the most suitable fire protection option for buildings constructed of steel frames. Different categories of interdependent decision elements were developed from 22 design decision criteria and 5 proposed fire protection options to produce a network of decision clusters for multicriteria decision analysis. In the synthesis and ranking of fire protection options, the W/GMM‐ANP accounted for the multiple interdependencies of weighted and unweighted stakeholder desires and managed the complexity of the decision‐making problem. The technique is proposed for approaching suitable group decisions in structural fire design of steel‐framed buildings as well as other performance‐based engineering decision making that may involve multidisciplinary stakeholders.     

平均数差异显著性检验统计检验力和效果大小的估计原理与方法

该文以平均数差异显著性检验为例,对实验数据进行假设检验后,继续对其统计检验力和效果大小进行估计的基本原理和方法作一介绍。     

企业员工行为中庸化的特征分析

本研究采用了问卷调查法,对苏州271名企业员工的行为中庸化的特征进行了研究。结果表明：（1）企业员工的行为,总体上是趋向于中庸的;（2）男性员工较女性员工在行为上更倾向于中庸;（3）教育水平高的员工较教育水平低的员工更倾向于中庸;（4）职务水平高的员工较职务水平低的员工更倾向于中庸;（5）企业性质不同、资本来源不同的企业员工,其行为中庸化水平不同。     

The allure of equality: uniformity in probabilistic and statistical judgment

Uniformity, that is, equiprobability of all available options is central as a theoretical presupposition and as a computational tool in probability theory. It is justified only when applied to an appropriate sample space. In five studies, we posed diversified problems that called for unequal probabilities or weights to be assigned to the given units. The predominant response was choice of equal probabilities and weights. Many participants failed the task of partitioning the possibilities into elements that justify uniformity. The uniformity fallacy proved compelling and robust across varied content areas, tasks, and cases in which the correct weights should either have been directly or inversely proportional to their respective values. Debiasing measures included presenting individualized and visual data and asking for extreme comparisons. The preference of uniformity obtains across several contexts. It seems to serve as an anchor also in mathematical and social judgments. People’s pervasive partiality for uniformity is explained as a quest for fairness and symmetry, and possibly in terms of expediency.     

心理测验中的趋中回归与超常分数重现概率

研究了心理测验中的趋中回归及其性质,超常分数重现概率与真分数的分布、测验信度、超常分数界值的关系。结果表明,信度越低,趋中回归越大;超常分数界值越高,趋中回归越大。在正态分布下,超常分数重现概率与信度是指数关系;超常分数重现概率与界值是直线关系。初步讨论了如何在心理学研究中避免和减少趋中回归的误导。     

评《尼各马科伦理学》的三个道德劝喻

本文由两部分组成。第一部分从消极角度分析了《尼各马科伦理学》的三条道德劝喻(“两恶之间取其小”、“曲木裁直”、“拒斥快乐”),认为亚里士多德的三条道德劝喻不仅彼此互相冲突,而且与亚氏伦理学的中心原则(只有心理上和行为上有德性的表现,才是德性的,才是一个有德性的人)是相互矛盾的。第二部分则着重从积极角度来看待这些冲突．认为恰好是这些冲突暴露了伦理学所要积极面对的问题、