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61.
Overconfidence is often regarded as one of the most prevalent judgment biases. Several studies show that overconfidence can lead to suboptimal decisions of investors, managers, or politicians. Recent research, however, questions whether overconfidence should be regarded as a bias and shows that standard “overconfidence” findings can easily be explained by different degrees of knowledge of agents plus a random error in predictions. We contribute to the current literature and ongoing research by extensively analyzing interval estimates for knowledge questions, for real financial time series, and for artificially generated charts. We thereby suggest a new method to measure overconfidence in interval estimates, which is based on the implied probability mass behind a stated prediction interval. We document overconfidence patterns, which are difficult to reconcile with rationality of agents and which cannot be explained by differences in knowledge as differences in knowledge do not exist in our task. Furthermore, we show that overconfidence measures are reliable in the sense that there exist stable individual differences in the degree of overconfidence in interval estimates, thereby testing an important assumption of behavioral economics and behavioral finance models: stable individual differences in the degree of overconfidence across people. We do this in a “field experiment,” for different levels of expertise of subjects (students on the one hand and professional traders and investment bankers on the other hand), over time, by using different miscalibration metrics, and for tasks that avoid common weaknesses such as a non‐representative selection of trick questions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
62.
Angela K. Troyer Larry Leach Susan Vandermorris Jill B. Rich 《Memory (Hove, England)》2013,21(7):931-942
ABSTRACTThe Multifactorial Memory Questionnaire (MMQ) is a participant-reported measure of memory satisfaction, ability, and strategy use. Initially validated with healthy older adults, it has since been used in many different populations and settings for a variety of purposes. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the measurement properties of the MMQ across multiple, diverse studies. Methods: The study was designed using the Consensus-Based Standards for the Selection of Health Measurement Instruments and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. We calculated aggregate statistics and evaluated the methodological quality of 29 studies retrieved from PsycINFO, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science. Results: Analyses revealed high-quality evidence for internal consistency, stability, measurement error, convergent validity, and known-groups validity of the three MMQ scales. There was moderate-quality evidence for responsiveness and structural validity, with some studies identifying separate factors for internal and external memory strategy use. Measurement properties were similar across languages, participant samples, and study designs. Conclusions: The MMQ is a valid, reliable, and responsive measure across diverse settings and populations. Future research is needed to determine whether more detailed information can be obtained from the scales, specifically, internal versus external strategy use. 相似文献
63.
Repetition priming is one of the most robust phenomena in cognitive psychology, but participants vary substantially on the amount of priming that they produce. The current experiments assessed the reliability of repetition priming within individuals. The results suggest that observed differences in the size of the repetition priming effect across participants are largely reliable and result primarily from systematic processes. We conclude that the unreliability of semantic priming observed by Stolz, Besner, and Carr (2005) is specific to uncoordinated processes in semantic memory, and that this unreliability does not generalize to other processes in visual word recognition. We consider the implications of these results for theories of automatic and controlled processes that contribute to priming. Finally, we emphasize the importance of reliability for researchers who use similar paradigms to study individual and group differences in cognition. 相似文献
64.
Carrie M. Dempsey Brian A. Iwata Jennifer N. Fritz Natalie U. Rolider 《Journal of applied behavior analysis》2012,45(4):827-832
We compared the effects of 2 observer‐training procedures. In vivo training involved practice during actual treatment sessions. Video training involved practice while watching progressively more complex simulations. Fifty‐nine undergraduate students entered 1 of the 2 training conditions sequentially according to an ABABAB design. Results showed that the 2 training methods produced almost identical scores on a posttraining observational test; however, the video method required fewer training sessions to complete. 相似文献
65.
Natalie U. Rolider Brian A. Iwata Christopher E. Bullock 《Journal of applied behavior analysis》2012,45(4):753-762
We examined the effects of several variations in response rate on the calculation of total, interval, exact‐agreement, and proportional reliability indices. Trained observers recorded computer‐generated data that appeared on a computer screen. In Study 1, target responses occurred at low, moderate, and high rates during separate sessions so that reliability results based on the four calculations could be compared across a range of values. Total reliability was uniformly high, interval reliability was spuriously high for high‐rate responding, proportional reliability was somewhat lower for high‐rate responding, and exact‐agreement reliability was the lowest of the measures, especially for high‐rate responding. In Study 2, we examined the separate effects of response rate per se, bursting, and end‐of‐interval responding. Response rate and bursting had little effect on reliability scores; however, the distribution of some responses at the end of intervals decreased interval reliability somewhat, proportional reliability noticeably, and exact‐agreement reliability markedly. 相似文献
66.
Divergent thinking (DT) tests are among the most popular techniques for measuring creativity. However, the validity evidence for DT tests, as applied in educational settings, is inconsistent partly due to different scoring methods. This study explored the reliability and validity issues of various techniques for administering and scoring two DT tests. Results show distinct differences among several methods for scoring these DT tests and suggest that the percentage scoring method (i.e., dividing originality scores by fluency scores) may be the most appropriate scoring strategy. The potential impact on educational research and practice is discussed in detail. 相似文献
67.
John Lees 《Counselling and Psychotherapy Research》2003,3(2):147-153
This paper explores the application of reflexive action research in practice by examining a piece of the author's previously published work. A process of inquiry is described that involves reflexively engaging with original formulations in order to further continuing professional development. Guidelines for conducting this kind of research are described. 相似文献
68.
Although the name‐letter task (NLT) has become an increasingly popular technique to measure implicit self‐esteem (ISE), researchers have relied on different algorithms to compute NLT scores and the psychometric properties of these differently computed scores have never been thoroughly investigated. Based on 18 independent samples, including 2690 participants, the current research examined the optimality of five scoring algorithms based on the following criteria: reliability; variability in reliability estimates across samples; types of systematic error variance controlled for; systematic production of outliers and shape of the distribution of scores. Overall, an ipsatized version of the original algorithm exhibited the most optimal psychometric properties, which is recommended for future research using the NLT. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
69.
Mojgan Fadaei Nasab Rusnani Abdul Kadir Siti Aishah Hassan Sidek Mohd. Noah 《Journal of counseling and development : JCD》2015,93(3):344-351
The authors examined the reliability and construct validity of the Career Decision Scale (Osipow, Carney, & Barak, 1976 ) with 1,610 freshman and sophomore students from public universities from a southwestern state in Iran. A Cronbach's alpha of .80 provided strong support for the scale's reliability. Exploratory factor analysis results indicated a 2‐factor model (Diffusion and Internal/External Barriers) of the scale with Iranian students, which was confirmed by confirmatory factor analysis. Implications and recommendations for further research are discussed. 相似文献
70.
质性研究中编码者信度的多种方法考察 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
质性研究中检验编码者信度的方法有归类一致性指数、编码信度系数、相关系数、中位数检验、概化系数等。基于教师胜任力访谈数据集,对编码者信度考察结果表明,归类一致性指数和编码信度系数受相同编码数影响而不稳定,相关系数受数据类型制约,中位数检验受研究设计影响,概化系数则受编码者和编码项目的数量影响。研究中须合理选用。 相似文献