时间框架对决策的影响

时间是影响决策偏好一致性的重要因素,时间框架与行为决策之间的相互关系是决策科学领域关沣的重要问题.本研究采用实验方法,运用跨时选择研究范式对延迟决策和提前决策进行对比研究.实验结果表明,时间框架对跨时选样产生显著影响;同一时间距离条件下,提前框架下的时间折扣低于延迟框架下的时间折扣,即存在时间维度的框架效应.     

腹膜透析相关性腹膜炎诊治的临床决策

腹膜透析相关性腹膜炎的治疗以前主要着眼于抗生素的选择,但其防治应该是从腹透管置管开始的整体策略,包括预防性抗生素的使用、患者的强化培训、腹膜炎的早期快速诊断、给药途径与疗程,以及拔管指征等.肾科医师临床决策是需要根据最新的治疗指南及研究进展,结合患者的个体特点进行综合判断,以期达到最佳的治疗效果.     

Motivational Interviewing in Primary Care

Healthcare systems are in the process of reforming themselves to better meet the needs of people with, or at risk of developing, chronic diseases and long term conditions. One goal of these efforts is the coproduction of activated, informed, engaged and motivated patients and citizens. The clinical, public health and financial benefits of achieving such a goal may be dramatic. Motivational Interviewing (MI) is a proven and practical front-line approach which can help deliver this goal whilst also helping to deliver such policy objectives and intermediate outcomes as increased levels of patient centered care, participatory or shared decision making, evidence-based healthcare and improved clinician-patient relationships. Until now, MI has been passively diffusing through the system as a result of the innovation and early uptake by insightful individuals and organizations. If healthcare systems want to breakthrough to higher levels of performance, investment in the conscious and deliberate implementation of MI into front-line settings may prove helpful.     

Regional and Foreign Accent Processing in English: Can Listeners Adapt?

Recent data suggest that the first presentation of a foreign accent triggers a delay in word identification, followed by a subsequent adaptation. This study examines under what conditions the delay resumes to baseline level. The delay will be experimentally induced by the presentation of sentences spoken to listeners in a foreign or a regional accent as part of a lexical decision task for words placed at the end of sentences. Using a blocked design of accents presentation, Experiment 1 shows that accent changes cause a temporary perturbation in reaction times, followed by a smaller but long-lasting delay. Experiment 2 shows that the initial perturbation is dependent on participants’ expectations about the task. Experiment 3 confirms that the subsequent long-lasting delay in word identification does not habituate after repeated exposure to the same accent. Results suggest that comprehensibility of accented speech, as measured by reaction times, does not benefit from accent exposure, contrary to intelligibility.     

Money does not stink: Using unpleasant odors as stimulus material changes risky decision making

Odors are strong elicitors of affect, and they play an important role in guiding human behavior, such as avoiding fire or spoiled food. However, little is known about how risky decision making changes when stimuli are olfactory. We investigated this question in an experimental study of risky decision making with unpleasant odors and monetary losses in a fully incentivized task with real outcomes. Odor and monetary decisions were matched so that monetary losses corresponded to the amount of money participants were willing to pay to avoid smelling an odor. Hierarchical Bayesian analyses using prospect theory show that participants were less sensitive to probabilities when gambling with odors than when gambling with money. These results highlight the importance of taking the sensory modality into account when studying risky decision making.     

The Aggregated Extremes Effect: Not All Routes to “Balanced” Bundles are Equally Appealing

Prior research establishes that consumers are averse to extreme options, but what does a “moderate” option look like in the context of choices among bundles of items, such as investment portfolios or product assortment packs? We propose that for bundles, two paths to creating risk and reward balance exist: a “bundle‐of‐pure‐moderation” with all moderate‐risk–moderate‐reward (moderate RR) components and a “bundle‐of‐extremes,” composed of equal numbers of extreme high‐risk–high‐reward (high RR) and low‐risk–low‐reward (low RR) components. We show that consumers have stronger preference for the balanced bundle when composed of a bundle‐of‐extremes rather than a bundle‐of‐pure‐moderation, even when equated on expected value, a phenomenon we term “the aggregated extremes effect.” This effect occurs across different choice set configurations and across multiple domains. Additionally, this effect is eliminated among consumers who view the high RR and low RR components as incompatible, as this undermines the perceived attractiveness of the bundle‐of‐extremes. Finally, this effect is also eliminated by exposing consumers to a depiction of potential outcomes, such that consumers can better perceive the risk reduction upside of a bundle‐of‐pure‐moderation.     

A non-linear multi-criteria model for strategic fms selection decisions

The strategic decision of selecting an optimal flexible manufacturing system (FMS) configuration is a complicated question which involves evaluating trade-offs between a number of different, potentially conflicting criteria such as annual production volume, flexibility, production and investment costs and average throughput of the system. Recently, several structured multicriteria approaches have been proposed to aid management in the FMS selection process. While acknowledging the non-linear nature of a number of the relationships in the model, notably between batch size and the number of batches produced of each part, these studies used linear simplifications to illustrate the decision dynamics of the problem. These linear models were shown to offer useful analytical tools in the FMS pre-design process. Owing to the non-linearities of the true relationships, however, the trade-offs between the criteria could not fully be explored within the linear framework. This paper builds on the two-phase decision support framework proposed by Stam and Kuula (1991) and uses a modified non-linear multi-criteria formulation to solve the problem. The software used in the illustration can easily be implemented, is user-interactive and menu-driven. The methodology is applied to real data from a Finnish metal product company and the results are compared with those obtained in previous studies.     

Some results concerning the quality of vertex solutions found by a method for multiple-objective linear programming

The Zionts-Wallenius algorithm for multiple-objective linear programming terminates with an extreme point solution that is locally but not necessary globally optimal. To find the globally optimal solution, a search along the facets of the solution space polyhedron may be required. In this paper we report the results of an experiment to determine how close the local and global optima are. We discuss the concept of closeness and propose one measure. Computer simulation is used to determine, in general, the quality of the solution found by the Zionts-Wallenius method for two types of non-linear utility functions. The merits of a search procedure are discussed in the context of the results.