Sebastian Olschewski  Pavel Sirotkin  Jörg Rieskamp 《The British journal of mathematical and statistical psychology》2022,75(2):252-292

A standard approach to distinguishing people’s risk preferences is to estimate a random utility model using a power utility function to characterize the preferences and a logit function to capture choice consistency. We demonstrate that with often-used choice situations, this model suffers from empirical underidentification, meaning that parameters cannot be estimated precisely. With simulations of estimation accuracy and Kullback–Leibler divergence measures we examined factors that potentially mitigate this problem. First, using a choice set that guarantees a switch in the utility order between two risky gambles in the range of plausible values leads to higher estimation accuracy than randomly created choice sets or the purpose-built choice sets common in the literature. Second, parameter estimates are regularly correlated, which contributes to empirical underidentification. Examining standardizations of the utility scale, we show that they mitigate this correlation and additionally improve the estimation accuracy for choice consistency. Yet, they can have detrimental effects on the estimation accuracy of risk preference. Finally, we also show how repeated versus distinct choice sets and an increase in observations affect estimation accuracy. Together, these results should help researchers make informed design choices to estimate parameters in the random utility model more precisely.  相似文献   

    

Shiyu Wang 《The British journal of mathematical and statistical psychology》2018,71(2):300-333

The maximum likelihood classification rule is a standard method to classify examinee attribute profiles in cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs). Its asymptotic behaviour is well understood when the model is assumed to be correct, but has not been explored in the case of misspecified latent class models. This paper investigates the asymptotic behaviour of a two-stage maximum likelihood classifier under a misspecified CDM. The analysis is conducted in a general restricted latent class model framework addressing all types of CDMs. Sufficient conditions are proposed under which a consistent classification can be obtained by using a misspecified model. Discussions are also provided on the inconsistency of classification under certain model misspecification scenarios. Simulation studies and a real data application are conducted to illustrate these results. Our findings can provide some guidelines as to when a misspecified simple model or a general model can be used to provide a good classification result.  相似文献   

    

Oliver Lüdtke  Alexander Robitzsch  Ulrich Trautwein 《Multivariate behavioral research》2018,53(1):102-124

The Social Relations Model (SRM) is a conceptual and analytical approach to examining dyadic behaviors and interpersonal perceptions within groups. In an SRM, the perceiver effect describes a person's tendency to perceive other group members in a certain way, whereas the target effect measures the tendency to be perceived by others in certain ways. In SRM research, it is often of interest to relate these individual SRM effects to covariates. However, the estimated individual SRM effects might not provide a very reliable measure of the true, unobserved SRM effects, resulting in distorted estimates of associations with other variables. This article introduces a plausible values approach that allows users to correct for measurement error when assessing the association of individual SRM effects with other individual difference variables. In the plausible values approach, the latent, true individual SRM effects are treated as missing values and are imputed from an imputation model by applying Bayesian estimation techniques. In a simulation study, the statistical properties of the plausible values approach are compared with two approaches that have been used in previous research. A data example from educational psychology is presented to illustrate how the plausible values approach can be implemented with the software WinBUGS.  相似文献   

    

Ferdinand Pittino  Katrin M. Kliegl  Anke Huckauf 《Cognition & emotion》2018,32(5):1082-1096

Evaluative Conditioning (EC) is commonly defined as the change in liking of a stimulus (conditioned stimulus, CS) due to its pairings with an affective unconditioned stimulus (US). In Experiment 1, we investigated effects of repeated stimulus pairings on affective responses, i.e. valence and arousal ratings, pupil size, and duration estimation. After repeatedly pairing the CSs with affective USs, a consistent pattern of affective responses emerged: The CS_negative was rated as being more negative and more arousing, resulted in larger pupils, and was temporally overestimated compared to the CS_neutral. In Experiment 2, the influence of a mere instruction about the contingency between a CS and US on affective responses was examined. After mere instruction about upcoming pairings between the CS and US, subjective ratings also changed, but there was neither evidence for differential pupillary responses nor for differential temporal processing. The results indicate that EC via pairings or instructions can change the affective responses towards formerly neutral stimuli and introduce pupil size as a physiological measure in EC research. However, Experiment 2 suggests that there might be moderating factors based on the type of EC procedure involved.  相似文献   

    

Amber R. Paden  Tiffany Kodak 《Journal of applied behavior analysis》2015,48(4):924-929

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Attila Krajcsi  János Igács 《Journal of Cognitive Psychology》2013,25(7):1021-1038

Numerals are processed by a phylogenetically old analogue magnitude system. Can culturally new negative numerals be processed using this same representation? To find out whether magnitude representation could be used, we contrasted three possible processing mechanisms: an extended magnitude system for both positive and negative numbers, a mirroring mechanism that could transform negative values to the positive range to be processed on the positive magnitude system, and a sign shortcut strategy that can process the signs of numbers independently of the absolute values of numerals. To test these three hypotheses, a comparison task was used and the reaction time pattern, numerical distance, and Spatial-Numerical Association of Response Codes (SNARC) effect was analysed. The results revealed a mirroring process along with a sign shortcut mechanism. The SNARC effect was observed only when positive numbers were compared.  相似文献   

    

Irene van de Vijver  K. Richard Ridderinkhof  Sanne de Wit 《Neuropsychology, development, and cognition. Section B, Aging, neuropsychology and cognition》2013,20(5):595-619

Feedback-based learning declines with age. Because older adults are generally biased toward positive information (“positivity effect”), learning from positive feedback may be less impaired than learning from negative outcomes. The literature documents mixed results, due possibly to variability between studies in task design. In the current series of studies, we investigated the influence of feedback valence on reinforcement learning in young and older adults. We used nonprobabilistic learning tasks, to more systematically study the effects of feedback magnitude, learning of stimulus–response (S–R) versus stimulus–outcome (S–O) associations, and working-memory capacity. In most experiments, older adults benefitted more from positive than negative feedback, but only with large feedback magnitudes. Positivity effects were pronounced for S–O learning, whereas S–R learning correlated with working-memory capacity in both age groups. These results underline the context dependence of positivity effects in learning and suggest that older adults focus on high gains when these are informative for behavior.  相似文献   

    

Ruth S. Ogden 《Cognition & emotion》2013,27(7):1292-1304

Previous research suggests that feelings of fear, dislike, shame and sadness affect our perception of duration (Droit-Volet et al., 2004; Gil et al., 2009). The current study sought to expand our understanding of the variables which moderate temporal perception by examining whether the attractiveness of a face influenced its perceived duration. Participants completed a verbal estimation task in which they judged the duration of attractive, unattractive and neutral faces. The results showed that participants underestimated the duration of unattractive faces relative to attractive and neutral faces. Estimates of unattractive faces were also less accurate than those of the attractive and neutral faces. The results are consistent with Gil et al.'s (2009) suggestion that the duration of disliked stimuli are underestimated relative to liked and neutral stimuli because they detract attention from temporal perception. Analysis of the slope and intercept of the estimation gradients supports Zakay and Block's (1997) suggestion that reduced attention to time results in a multiplicative underestimation of duration.  相似文献   

    

《Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour》2015

The ability to estimate vehicle speed and stopping distance accurately is important for pedestrians to make safe road crossing decisions. In this study, a field experiment in a naturalistic traffic environment was conducted to measure pedestrians’ estimation of vehicle speed and stopping distance when they are crossing streets. Forty-four participants (18–45 years old) reported their estimation on 1043 vehicles, and the corresponding actual vehicle speed and stopping distance were recorded. In the speed estimation task, pedestrians’ performances change in different actual speed levels and different weather conditions. In sunny conditions, pedestrians tended to underestimate actual vehicle speeds that were higher than 40 km/h but were able to accurately estimate speeds that were lower than 40 km/h. In rainy conditions, pedestrians tended to underestimate actual vehicle speeds that were higher than 45 km/h but were able to accurately estimate speeds ranging from 35 km/h to 45 km/h. In stopping distance estimation task, the accurate estimation interval ranged from 60 km/h to 65 km/h, and pedestrians generally underestimated the stopping distance when vehicles were travelling over 65 km/h. The results show that pedestrians have accurate estimation intervals that vary by weather conditions. When the speed of the oncoming vehicle exceeded the upper bound of the accurate interval, pedestrians were more likely to underestimate the vehicle speed, increasing their risk of incorrectly deciding to cross when it is not safe to do so.  相似文献   

    

Alison T. Miller Singley  Silvia A. Bunge 《Thinking & reasoning》2013,19(4):445-468

ABSTRACT

Fractions are defined by numerical relationships, and comparing two fractions’ magnitudes requires within-fraction (holistic) and/or between-fraction (componential) relational comparisons. To better understand how individuals spontaneously reason about fractions, we collected eye-tracking data while they performed a fraction comparison task with conditions that promoted or obstructed different types of comparisons. We found evidence for both componential and holistic processing in this mixed-pairs task, consistent with the hybrid theory of fraction representation. Additionally, making within-fraction eye movements on trials that promoted a between-fraction comparison strategy was associated with slower responses. Finally, participants who performed better on a non-numerical test of reasoning took longer to respond to the most difficult fraction trials, which suggests that those who had greater facility with non-numerical reasoning attended more to numerical relationships. These findings extend prior research and support the continued investigation into the mechanistic links between numerical and non-numerical reasoning.  相似文献