Comparing What to What,on What Scale? The Impact of Item Comparisons and Reference Points in Communicating Risk and Uncertainty

The mandated public availability of individual hospital's audit data for children's heart surgery in the UK creates a challenging scenario for communicating these complex and sensitive data to diverse audiences. On the basis of this scenario, we conducted three experiments with the aim of understanding how best to help lay people understand these data and the practical goal of improving the public presentation of these data. The experiments compared different outcome measures for displaying the survival rate (percentage scale versus the ratio of the predicted/observed rates) and presentation formats (individual hospital versus all hospitals shown) for outcomes data presented relative to prediction intervals generated by a risk model that adjusts for case mix. Our data highlight how easily inappropriate comparisons can influence evaluations of complex data: for instance, both a survival ratio of 1 and the presence of other hospitals seemingly provided reference points that resulted in inappropriately harsh evaluations of some hospitals. By drawing on evaluability theory, we demonstrate how to enhance people's understanding of these complex data while also discouraging inappropriate comparisons, which has implications for communicating risk and uncertainty and for choice architecture design in a range of contexts. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

小学一年级阅读流畅性对二、三年级阅读理解的预测

采用追踪研究考察了124名小学一年级儿童的阅读流畅性对其二、三年级阅读理解的影响。结果发现,在控制了性别、家庭社会经济地位、推理能力、汉字识别、口语词汇及多种阅读相关认知技能之后,儿童一年级时的字词流畅性可以预期其二、三年级时的阅读理解水平,句子流畅性对二年级时阅读理解的变异有独特解释作用,但对三年级时阅读理解的变异没有显著的解释作用。相对于句子流畅性,字词流畅性在小学低年级阶段对阅读理解的贡献更大。     

Associations between childhood biomedical factors,maternal smoking,personality traits,Body and Mass Index and the prevalence of asthma in adulthood

Objective: The study set out to investigate socio-economic, biomedical, health and behavioural and psychological factors in childhood and adulthood associated with the prevalence of asthma in adulthood, drawing data from The National Child Development Studies (NCDS), a birth cohort in the UK.

Design: The National Child Development Study, a nationally representative sample of 17,415 babies born in Great Britain in 1958 and followed up at 7, 11, 33 and 50 years was used.

Main Outcome Measure: The prevalence of asthma at age 50 was the outcome measure. The analytic sample consists of 5118 participants with complete data on a set of measures at birth, at ages 7, 11, 33 and 50 years.

Results: Using logistic regression analyses, results showed that childhood asthma (OR = 6.77: 4.38–10.48, p < .001) and respiratory symptoms (OR = 1.83: 1.18–2.86, p < .01), maternal smoking during pregnancy (OR = 1.26: 1.00–1.59, p < .05), Body and Mass Index (BMI) (OR = 1.03: 1.02–1.05, p < .001), traits Neuroticism (OR = 1.13: 1.01–1.21, p < .05) and Conscientiousness (OR = 0.76: 0.76–0.96, p < .01), as well as sex (OR = 1.49: 1.15–1.94, p < .001) were all significantly associated with the prevalence of asthma in adulthood.

Conclusion: The study shows that both childhood and adulthood psychological and sociological factors are significantly associated with the prevalence of asthma in adulthood, though more work need to be done in this area.     

3～6岁儿童人格发展的群组序列追踪研究

目的:运用自编幼儿人格发展教师评定问卷对幼儿人格进行追踪测量,探讨其年龄及性别发展特点。方法:用整群抽样法选取3~3.5岁、3.5~4岁、4~4.5岁3个年龄群组幼儿为被试,采用群组序列的追踪设计,进行为期1年半的追踪测量,结合潜变量增长曲线模型和多层线性模型处理数据,探讨幼儿在3~6岁间人格的发展特点。结果:(1)幼儿的智能特征、认真自控、外倾性、亲社会性、情绪稳定性5个人格维度在3~4岁发展最快,4~5岁持续增长但发展速度放缓,到5~6岁时趋于平稳;(2)女孩的认真自控和亲社会性在3岁时显著高于男孩,但在3~6岁间的增长率不存在差异,即女孩的认真自控和亲社会性在幼儿阶段发展水平始终高于男孩。结论:从家庭进入幼儿园的环境变迁促使了幼儿人格的进一步发展,5岁左右幼儿人格开始初步形成;女孩的认真自控和亲社会性水平在幼儿阶段始终高于男孩。     

Anxiety symptom interpretation and performance expectations in high-anxious,low-anxious,defensive high-anxious and repressor individuals

To date, no research has investigated score predictions and anxiety interpretation in high-anxious, low-anxious, defensive high-anxious and repressor individuals. This study examined Eysenck’s (1997) predictions for cognitive biases on future performance expectations in all four groups. This study was conducted in an ecologically-valid sporting environment. Competitive shooters completed the Marlowe–Crowne Social Desirability Scale and the Sport Anxiety Scale prior to a major competition. Percentile splits identified the four defensiveness/anxiety groups. The modified Competitive Sport Anxiety Inventory-2 was used to assess the intensity and direction of anxiety prior to competition. Participants predicted their expected shooting score. The hypothesis that repressors would interpret their anxiety as more facilitative to performance compared to low-anxious individuals was partially supported. Repressors were more optimistic in their performance prediction in contrast to defensive high-anxious performers who, in turn, were more pessimistic compared to the other two groupings. High-anxious performers, contrary to predictions, demonstrated optimism in their future performance. The findings of this study corroborate the theoretical predictions and the evidence from previous studies with sport performers. Future research should continue to investigate the influence of cognitive biases on performance predictions in sporting environments using Weinberger et al.’s classifications.     

What Goes Up Apparently Needn't Come Down: Asymmetric Predictions of Ascent and Descent in Rankings

In eight studies, we document an upward mobility bias, or a tendency to predict that a rise in rankings is more likely than a decline. This asymmetry was observed in predictions of classroom performance, NBA and NFL standings, business school rankings, and employee performance rankings. The bias was found for entities people care about and want to see improve their standing, as well as entities in which people are not invested. It appears to result from people's tendency to give considerable weight to a focal agent's intentions and motivation, but to give less weight to the intentions of competitors and other factors that would thwart the focal agent's improvement. We show that this bias is most pronounced for implicit incremental theorists, who believe that performance is malleable (and hence assign more weight to intentions and effort). We discuss implications of this asymmetry for decision making and for an understanding of the underdog bias. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Depression and Suicidal Ideation After Predictive Testing for Huntington's Disease: A Two-Year Follow-up Study

The present study reports a two-year follow-up of psychological effects of predictive testing for Huntington's disease. Questionnaires assessing depression, general health, well-being, self injurious behavior, life satisfaction, and lifestyle were completed by 35 carriers and 58 non-carriers before the predictive test, and 2, 6, 12, and 24 months afterwards. Both carriers and non-carriers showed high suicidal ideation before the predictive testing. Depression scores and frequency of suicidal thoughts increased for carriers, compared to non-carriers, over time. There were no differences regarding life satisfaction or life style between carriers and non-carriers. Predictive testing was beneficial in reducing overall ill-health symptoms and increasing well-being for those initially expressing concern about Huntington's disease. The importance of assessing suicidal ideation and of continuing to provide adequate support is emphasized.     

Factors Moderating Children's Adjustment to Parental Separation: Findings From a Community Study in England

Research findings show that there is marked variability in children's response to parental separation, but few studies identify the sources of this variation. This prospective longitudinal study examines the factors modifying children's adjustment to parental separation in a community sample of 5,635 families in England. Children's behavioral/emotional problems were assessed when children were aged 47 and 81 months; marital quality, maternal depression, socioeconomic circumstances, and demographic variables were assessed prior to the separation from maternal report. Results indicated that 346 mothers separated from their partners in the 3-year period. Preseparation differences were found for measures of family process and parent risk factors, with effect sizes ranging from small to trivial. Parental separation was associated with a significant but modest increase in behavioral/emotional problems, independent of marital quality, maternal depression, socioeconomic circumstances, and demographic variables. Moderation analyses showed that children of cohabiting parents had a greater increase in adjustment problems following parental separation than children of married parents. Further research elucidating the factors that moderate children's adjustment to parental separation is needed to improve our understanding of who may most likely benefit from preventive interventions.