多层线性模型在纵向研究中的运用

纵向研究中传统统计技术主要是重复测量的方差分析和多元回归分析，但是这两种技术存在一些局限性，不能合理而充分地解释纵向研究资料。近年来出现的多层线性模型能够更有效地利用纵向数据。为促进多层线性模型在纵向研究中的运用，简要论述了传统统计技术的局限，介绍了多层线性模型的原理及其在纵向研究中的作用，以一组模拟数据为例对多层线性模型中各种参数在纵向研究中的含义进行了详细讨论，对于纵向研究中运用多层线性模型时须注意的问题提出了建议。     

Classification of Antisocial Behaviors Along Severity and Frequency Parameters

Antisocial behaviors were systematically classified along a hierarchy of seriousness or severity that also accounted for frequency of occurrence and heterogeneity of behaviors. Items from the CD and ODD schedules of the NIMH DISC-IV and from the Elliot Delinquency Scales were listed at specified frequencies. Nine mental health clinicians rated the level of seriousness of each alternative on a scale from 0 (trivial) to 5 (very serious). Reliability of the ratings was assessed. Over two thirds of the items showed excellent agreement among the raters, 8% showed poor agreement and 21% showed fair to moderate agreement. The overall reliability of a single rater’s score was 0.56 and the reliability of the average was 0.84. The classification meets high psychometric standards for reliability and has face validity. The final output provides a classification along a spectrum that takes into account severity, frequency of occurrence during the previous year, and presence of multiple behaviors. It is useful for classification purposes and for longitudinal tracking of antisocial behavior.     

The longitudinal and concurrent role of neuroticism for partner relationships

Neurotic characteristics of spouses have often been associated with dissatisfaction with the partner relationship. This article addresses the question whether the link between dissatisfaction with the relationship and neuroticism appears during the partner relationship, or whether it is present before the person enters the relationship. Utilizing data from a Swedish longitudinal project, satisfaction with the partner relationship was linked with neuroticism both in adolescence and in adulthood. Adolescent neuroticism was measured at age 15 with the High School Personality Questionnaire (HSPQ), and adult neuroticism was measured at age 37 with the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ-I). Results showed that a lower degree of satisfaction in partner relationships in mid-life was linked with higher concurrent neuroticism scores. Opposing most of the previous studies, this association appeared for both men and women. Higher neuroticism in adolescence was, however, not significantly associated with satisfaction in partner relationships in mid-life.     

Untangling developmental relations between depressed mood and delinquency in male adolescents

Relations between depressed mood and delinquency were investigated in a longitudinal sample of 506 urban adolescent males across ages 13.5–17.5, while adjusting for common risk factors. Adolescents provided yearly reports of their delinquent activities and depressed mood, as well as reports of peer delinquency at age 13.5 (i.e., baseline). Primary caregivers and teachers provided reports of risk factors for depressed mood and delinquency such as aggressive behavior problems and low academic achievement. Two-level hierarchical generalized linear models of concurrent relations indicated that depressed mood predicted concurrent variety of delinquent acts, and more variety of delinquent acts predicted concurrent depressed mood, even after controlling common risk factors. Longitudinal analyses indicated that after controlling for common risk factors, depressed mood had a more robust effect on delinquency variety trajectories than delinquency variety had on depressed mood trajectories. Time-averaged depressed mood significantly predicted a more positive rate of change in delinquency variety across time. Baseline delinquency variety predicted baseline depressed mood and time-averaged delinquency variety predicted a more positive rate of change in depressed mood; however, both effects were marginally significant. Implications of the results for theory and intervention are discussed.     

Childhood Peer Relationship Problems and Young People's Involvement with Deviant Peers in Adolescence

Using prospective longitudinal data from the Christchurch Health and Development Study, this article examined the relationship between children's peer relationship problems in middle childhood and their subsequent risk of forming deviant peer affiliations in adolescence. The analysis proceeded in three steps. First, a structural equation model demonstrated a moderate association between early peer relationship problems and later deviant peer affiliations (r = .27). Second, the model was extended to include a latent variable measure of early conduct problems. This analysis revealed that when the confounding effects of concurrently measured conduct problems were taken into account, peer relationship problems in middle childhood were no longer significantly related to young people's choice of deviant peers in adolescence. Third, the model was further extended to include lagged variables, permitting an examination of possible reciprocal relationships between early conduct problems and peer relationship problems. Results suggested that both early peer relationship problems and adolescent deviant peer involvement are symptomatic of early child behavioral adjustment. The implications of these findings for explanations of deviant peer selection are discussed.     

Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic

We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Development of Internal State Language during the Third Year of Life: A Longitudinal Parent Report Study

Children's talk about the mind has been scarcely studied in non‐English speakers. For this reason, this longitudinal study documents age‐related changes in German‐speaking children's internal state language. At 24, 30 and 36 months, children were administered general language tests and their internal state vocabulary levels were obtained via parental report. The developmental transition from a vocabulary rich in physiological, perceptual and desire terms to a vocabulary rich in a wider range of mental concepts confirmed previous research with French‐speaking and English‐speaking children and research in children's internal state comprehension. Further, children's category scores proved to be developmentally stable. Finally, with increasing age, children's category scores became more specifically related to each other, independent of general language skills. The results are discussed in regard to the universality of children's talk about the mind. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hindsight Bias Demonstrated in the Prediction of a Sporting Event

Abstract

The authors examined hindsight bias in the context of a sporting event (Super Bowl XXXIII) with individuals who had previous knowledge of the hindsight bias–42 students who were currently enrolled in psychology classes that had previously covered hindsight bias. To control for extraneous variables, the authors analyzed how often the participants watched football, their gender, and whom they predicted to win; they found no differences between how often the participants watched football and whom they predicted to win. The hindsight bias existed for the prediction of the outcome for the Super Bowl, and the participants with previous knowledge were not immune to its effect. Results are discussed in relation to attribution theory, the reconstructionist view, and response bias view.     

Do physical and relational aggression explain adolescents' friendship selection? The competing roles of network characteristics,gender, and social status

The role of physical and relational aggression in adolescents' friendship selection was examined in a longitudinal sample of 274 Chilean students from 5th and 6th grade followed over 1 year. Longitudinal social network modeling (SIENA) was used to study selection processes for aggression while influence processes were controlled for. Furthermore, the effects of network characteristics (i.e., reciprocity and transitivity), gender, and social status on friendship selection were examined. The starting assumption of this study was that selection effects based on aggression might have been overestimated in previous research as a result of failing to consider influence processes and alternative characteristics that steer friendship formation. The results show that selection effects of both physical and relational aggression disappeared when network effects, gender, and social status were taken into account. Particularly gender and perceived popularity appeared to be far more important determinants of friendship selection over time than aggression. Moreover, a peer influence effect was only found for relational aggression, and not for physical aggression. These findings suggest that similarity in aggression among befriended adolescents can be considered to be mainly a by-product rather than a leading dimension in friendship selection.