Changes in Children's Episodic Narratives Through Long-Term Repeated Recall: Longitudinal Case Studies1

This study aimed to investigate whether a child's narrative of a particular past episode would change in repeated reporting over the long term, and if so, how it would change. To answer these questions, I conducted longitudinal case studies of episodic reports by children every 2–6 months, from their early childhood to the age of 10–15 years. Criteria for inclusion were set in advance; seven episodic narratives meeting these criteria were analyzed. Two types of changes in the narratives were observed, as expected: that of including other information, and that of an event suddenly being reported after no recall for several years. Information from the children's surroundings seemed to be substantially involved in these changes in their episodic narratives. The present results also indicate that mothers' episodic memories are not always reliable and that the schema children have can influence their episodic memories.     

Developmental relations between ADHD symptoms and bullying perpetration and victimization in adolescence

It has previously been hypothesized that individuals with elevated attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms are at greater risk of bullying perpetration and victimization. Using autoregressive latent trajectory models with structured residuals (ALT‐SR) and four waves (ages 11, 13, 15, and 17) of longitudinal data from the normative z‐proso study (n = 1526, 52% male), we evaluated the developmental relations between ADHD and bullying using both self‐ and teacher‐reported ADHD symptom data. Analyses suggested that ADHD symptoms primarily increase the risk of bullying perpetration, with a within‐person effect of ADHD symptoms on bullying perpetration symptoms identified across ages 13–15 (β = .13) and ages 15–17 (β = .19) based on self‐reported ADHD symptoms and a similar effect identified across ages 11–13 (β = .24) and 13–15 (β = .29) based on teacher‐reported inattention symptoms. There were also some indications of reciprocal effects and effects involving victimization that merit further exploration in future research. Results imply that the content of bullying intervention and prevention programs should take account of ADHD symptoms to ensure that those with elevated symptoms can benefit as much as their typically developing peers. This will involve addressing bullying perpetration that may reflect impulsive/reactive aggression and impaired social skills rather than instrumental aggression. Further, programs should go beyond classical curriculum/classroom‐based delivery to ensure that individuals with elevated ADHD symptoms can be successfully engaged.     

Dynamic relationships between phonological memory and reading: A five year longitudinal study from age 4 to 9

We reconcile competing theories of the role of phonological memory in reading development, by uncovering their dynamic relationship during the first 5 years of school. Phonological memory, reading and phoneme awareness were assessed in 780 phonics‐educated children at age 4, 5, 6 and 9. Confirmatory factor analyses demonstrated that phonological memory loaded onto two factors: verbal short‐term memory (verbal STM; phonological tasks that loaded primarily on serial order memory) and nonword repetition. Using longitudinal structural equation models, we found that verbal STM directly predicted early word‐level reading from age 4 to 6, reflecting the importance of serial‐order memory for letter‐by‐letter decoding. In contrast, reading had no reciprocal influence on the development of verbal STM. The relationship between nonword repetition and reading was bidirectional across the 5 years of study: nonword repetition and reading predicted each other both directly and indirectly (via phoneme awareness). Indirect effects from nonword repetition (and verbal STM) to reading support the view that phonological memory stimulates phonemically detailed representations through repeated encoding of complex verbal stimuli. Similarly, the indirect influence of reading on nonword repetition suggests that improved reading ability promotes the phoneme‐level specificity of phonological representations. Finally, the direct influence from reading to nonword repetition suggests that better readers use orthographic cues to help them remember and repeat new words accurately. A video abstract of this article can be viewed at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70LZfTR0BjE .     

心理因素与学业表现：机器学习分类预测模型

随着高等教育规模的扩大,学业表现不良逐渐成为一个不容忽视的现象,对学业表现不良的学生进行预测并提早给予干预可降低退学率并减少教育资源的损失。由于导致学业表现不良的因素众多且关系复杂,传统的基于相关分析的研究方法很难建立早期预测模型并进行应用。本研究旨在利用机器学习算法,对数据进行挖掘,并建立学业表现预测模型。研究对653名大一新生的心理健康状况、应对方式、人格、内外控倾向和相关人口统计学信息进行了收集,并在一年后采集了其学业成绩,利用随机森林(RF)、K邻近（KNN）、支持向量机（SVM）、决策树（DT）、朴素贝叶斯（NB）等机器学习算法建立了分类模型。结果显示,随机森林算法在识别学业表现不良学生时有最好的表现,其中准确率95.86%, 召回率91.83%,f1分数为93.80%。特征重要性分析显示,前10个对模型有最高贡献度的特征包括：年龄、性别、是否为独生子、内外控倾向、神经质倾向、积极应对倾向、宜人性倾向、一般症状指数、开放性倾向和焦虑水平。为避免过度拟合问题,本研究在一年后收集的166名新生样本中进行了模型验证,结果显示模型在新数据集上有较好的泛化表现,其中f1分数90.90％,准确率92.60％,召回率89.26％。研究提示基于人口统计学和心理测评信息,机器学习算法有助于及早识别学业表现不良学生并为开展早期干预提供启示。     

Proactive and reactive aggression in early adolescence as precursors to anti- and prosocial behavior in young adults

Three groups of adolescents who were 14 years old in 1974 were formed on the basis of peer nominations and teacher ratings in an ongoing longitudinal study: 1) reactively aggressive (REA) individuals who displayed reactive, that is, self-defensive aggression but not proactive aggression (43 boys, 35 girls); 2) proactively aggressive (PROA) individuals who attacked another person without a reason (56 boys, 35 girls); and 3) nonaggressive (NONA) individuals who were low in proactive and reactive aggression (48 boys, 45 girls). The groups were compared at ages 8, 14, and 27 in variables representing the constructs of a two-dimensional model of emotional and behavioral regulation. The REA Ss were characterized by higher self-control, especially constructiveness, at each age and better adult adjustment than the PROA Ss. The PROA males were prone to externalizing problems and criminality in adulthood, whereas the PROA females were prone to internalizing problems and neuroticism in adulthood. Both exhibited conduct problems in adolescence, and became heavy users of alcohol in adulthood. The PROA Ss had more children at age 27 than the other Ss. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

The Natural Selection of Prediction Heuristics: Anchoring and Adjustment versus Representativeness

There are several heuristics which people use in making numerical predictions and these heuristics compete for the determination of prediction output. Some of them (e.g. representativeness) lead to excessively extreme predictions while others (e.g. anchoring and adjustment) lead to regressive (and even over-regressive) predictions. In this paper we study the competition between these two heuristics by varying the representation of predictor and outcome. The results indicate that factors which facilitate reliance on representativeness (e.g. compatibility between predictor and outcome) indeed lead to an increase in extremity, while factors that facilitate reliance on anchoring and adjustment (e.g. increased salience of a potential anchor) lead to a decrease in extremity.     

Interval estimation for linear functions of medians in within-subjects and mixed designs

The currently available distribution-free confidence interval for a difference of medians in a within-subjects design requires an unrealistic assumption of identical distribution shapes. A confidence interval for a general linear function of medians is proposed for within-subjects designs that do not assume identical distribution shapes. The proposed method can be combined with a method for linear functions of independent medians to provide a confidence interval for a linear function of medians in mixed designs. Simulation results show that the proposed methods have good small-sample properties under a wide range of conditions. The proposed methods are illustrated with examples, and R functions that implement the new methods are provided.     

Longitudinal Development of Memory for Temporal Order in Early to Middle Childhood

Abstract

Existing studies examining the development of temporal order memory show that although young children perform above chance on some tasks assessing temporal order memory, there are significant age-related differences across childhood. Yet, the trajectory of children’s ability to retrieve temporal order remains unclear as existing conclusions are drawn from cross-sectional studies. The present study utilized an accelerated longitudinal design in order to characterize the developmental trajectory of temporal order memory in a sample of 200 healthy 4- to 8-year-old children. Specifically, two tasks commonly used in the literature were tested longitudinally: a primacy judgment task and an ordering task. Results revealed that, even after controlling for differences in IQ, linearly increasing trajectories characterized age-related change in performance for both tasks; however, change appeared greater for the temporal ordering task. Further, performance on the two tasks was positively related, suggesting shared underlying mechanisms. These findings provide a more thorough understanding of temporal order memory in early to middle childhood by characterizing the developmental trajectories of two commonly used tasks and have important implications for our understanding of children’s developing memory more broadly.