Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios

Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second “opposite” scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them.     

Applying a longitudinal tracer methodology to evaluate complex interventions in complex settings

Long-running multi-faceted intervention studies are particularly problematic in large complex organizations where traditional methods prove too resource intensive and can yield inaccurate and incomplete findings. This paper describes the first use of, longitudinal tracer methodology (LTM), a realist approach to evaluation, to examine the links between multiple complex intervention activities (processes) and their outcomes on a construction megaproject. LTM is especially useful when the researcher has little control over intervention delivery but has evidence drawn from multiple sources to evaluate the intervention activities effects over time. This methodology has rarely been deployed in complex organizational settings and not on a construction megaproject. This paper presents a case study of its use over a period of three years, on 24 construction sites forming London’s Thames Tideway Tunnel (Tideway) megaproject. The study examines the “transformational” power of occupational safety and health (OSH) interventions across the multiple organizations and supply chains in the megaproject. The study shows how the method can be adapted in-flight to accommodate shifting lines of inquiry as the intervention activities progress and change. This feature along with its resource-efficient operation, make it an attractive option where interventions are likely to have differential effects across multiple sites of enactment.     

Learning to read in Chinese: Evidence for reciprocal relationships between word reading and oral language skills

This study investigates the longitudinal predictors of the development of Chinese word reading skills and potential bidirectional relationships between Chinese word reading and oral language skills. We examine, in a 2‐year longitudinal study, a wide range of theoretically important predictors (phonological awareness, tone awareness, morphological awareness, visual skills, rapid automatized naming, Pinyin knowledge, and vocabulary knowledge) of reading in 143 primary‐school children living in mainland China. Initial levels of reading were predicted by vocabulary knowledge, phonological awareness, and visual discrimination skills. Only initial reading levels predicted growth in reading. Initial reading also predicted growth in vocabulary knowledge and morphological construction. This pattern demonstrates that the early stages of learning to read in Chinese places demands on semantic (vocabulary) and visual skills in addition to phonological skills. Furthermore, early levels of word reading predict the growth of vocabulary knowledge and morphological awareness suggesting that the development of these oral language skills is facilitated by learning to read.     

Identity Status Change Within Personal Style Clusters: A Longitudinal Perspective From Early Adulthood to Midlife

Differences in identity stability and change from age 36 through 42 to 50 were examined between three male and female personal style clusters extracted at age 27. We expected, first, the identity statuses to consistently differ between the clusters and, second, those with the least mature identity to move closer to others during midlife. Differences between the personal style clusters were discovered on all identity statuses across ages. Although significant personal style × age interactions were not detected, some evidence of pace-of-development differences emerged for women: Initial differences in identity maturation between the female groups partially leveled off by midlife. In men, early adulthood identity maturation in the conflicted group was however followed by a re-decline in later midlife.     

敌意归因偏向对反应性攻击的预测及报复动机的中介作用

敌意归因偏向指将模糊情境中他人的行为意图进行敌意归因的倾向,其被认为是导致攻击的主要认知因素,但还缺乏其与反应性、主动性攻击的纵向关系的考察,而且其影响反应性攻击的动力机制也不清楚。本研究通过两个子研究来分别回应这两个问题。研究1的纵向调查结果显示,敌意归因偏向只纵向预测反应性攻击,而不能跨时间地预测主动性攻击。研究2对另一批大学生的横断面调查发现,报复动机可以中介敌意归因偏向与反应性攻击的关系。研究结果提示,敌意归因偏向很可能主要是在反应性攻击的形成中起到重要作用,而对主动性攻击的影响不大,报复动机则很可能是这种作用背后的动力机制之一。     

听觉预测编码：对声音重复和变化的神经反应

预测编码被认为是脑与复杂环境交互的重要机制之一, 有效感知外界环境并对未来事件做出预测, 对个体生存有着至关重要的意义。人类大脑会基于感觉输入以迭代的方式持续优化表征外部环境的内部模型, 并不断预测接下来的感觉输入。以听觉模态为例, 人类及动物对声音重复和听觉变化的神经反应(如失匹配负波和刺激特异性适应)是大脑预测编码的重要体现, 表现为重复抑制和预测误差。结合人类和动物模型在此理论框架下开展跨物种研究将有助于加深我们对听觉加工, 甚至是大脑工作机制的认识。     

Psychosocial safety climate (PSC) and enacted PSC for workplace bullying and psychological health problem reduction

Bullying at work has profound effects on both the individual and organization. We aimed to determine if organizational psychosocial safety climate (PSC; a climate specific to worker psychological health) could reduce workplace bullying and associated psychological health problems (i.e., distress, emotional exhaustion, depression) if specific procedures were implemented (PSC enactment). We theorized that the PSC enactment mechanism works via psychosocial processes such as bullying mistreatment climate (anti-bullying procedures), work design (procedures reduce stress through work redesign), and conflict resolution (procedures to resolve conflict). We used two-wave national longitudinal interview data from 1,062 Australian employees (Australian Workplace Barometer project) and structural equation modelling to explore relationships over 4 years. PSC Time 1 predicted enacted PSC and reduced bullying 4 years later. PSC Time 1 was indirectly negatively related to poor psychological health Time 2 through enacted PSC and bullying. Bullying Time 1 also gave rise to procedures which in turn reduced bullying Time 2. Our findings suggest a multi-component approach to prevent or reduce bullying. Procedures (to reduce psychosocial hazards) that emerge in a high PSC context are more comprehensive than those triggered by bullying (reactive procedures), and can therefore be more effective in reducing worker mistreatment. Building PSC and a strong climate for psychological health, and enacting PSC is fundamental to bullying prevention.