Early Change Trajectories in Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Binge-Eating Disorder

Rapid response is considered the most well-established outcome predictor across treatments of binge-eating disorder (BED), including cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). This study sought to identify latent trajectories of early change in CBT and compare them to common rapid response classifications. In a multicenter randomized trial, 86 adults with BED (DSM-IV) or subsyndromal BED provided weekly self-reports of binge eating over the first 4 weeks of CBT, which were analyzed to predict binge eating, depression, and body mass index at posttreatment, 6-, and 18-month follow-up. Using latent growth mixture modeling, three patterns of early change—including moderate and low decreasing—as well as low stable binge eating were identified, which significantly predicted binge-eating remission at 6-month follow-up. Other classifications of rapid response based on Receiver Operating Characteristics curve analyses or on the literature (≥ 10% reduction in binge eating at week 1, ≥ 70% reduction in binge eating at week 4) only predicted posttreatment remission or overall depression, respectively. Latent change trajectories, but not other rapid response classifications, predicted binge-eating frequency over time. A fine-grained analysis of change over the first 4 weeks of CBT for BED revealed different trajectories of early change in binge eating that led to an improved prediction of binge-eating outcome, compared to that of common rapid response classifications. Thorough monitoring of early change trajectories during treatment may have clinical utility.     

Against all odds – is a more differentiated view of personality development in emerging adulthood needed? The case of young apprentices

Personality development in emerging adults who do not attend college after high school has been largely overlooked so far. In this study, we investigated personality development in emerging German adults (N_T1 = 1,886, M_ageT1 = 18.01 years, 29% female) undergoing vocational education and training (VET). The trainees were assessed at the start of VET, 1.5 years later, and another 1.5 years after that, just before graduation. Longitudinal latent change score analyses were applied. Bivariate analyses investigated life satisfaction and job strain as social and work‐related aspects that are potentially reciprocally related to personality development. Mean‐level personality changes included increases in neuroticism and decreases in agreeableness and conscientiousness in the first interval. In the second interval, neuroticism decreased and conscientiousness increased. Simultaneously, trainees reported a gradual decrease in extraversion and openness across the 3‐year time span. Personality, especially agreeableness and conscientiousness, emerged as a stronger predictor of changes in job strain and life satisfaction than vice versa. For example, more agreeable and more conscientious trainees subsequently showed increases in life satisfaction. Trainees reporting higher job strain subsequently showed decreases in agreeableness. Trajectories of personality development partly support the maturity principle that has been established in many college student samples.     

The development of violence from age 8 to 61

The main aim of this study is to investigate the development of violence from childhood to adulthood. In the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD), 411 London males have been followed up from age 8 to 48 in interviews, and from age 10 to 61 in criminal records; 19% were convicted for violence. There was a surprising amount of violence committed at older ages (40–61). The number of violence convictions was similar at ages 10–20, 21–39, and 40–61. There was considerable continuity in violent offending from ages 10–20 to 40–61. There was also continuity in self-reported violence from ages 15–18 to 43–48, and violence convictions were related to self-reported violence at all ages. The most important childhood risk factors for violence convictions were high daring or risk-taking, low verbal intelligence, a disrupted family, harsh parental discipline, high hyperactivity, and large family size. The extent to which these risk factors predicted violence at ages 40–61 was noteworthy. The “integrated cognitive antisocial potential (ICAP)” theory was proposed to explain the development of violence, and methods of preventing violence, targeting childhood risk factors, were reviewed.     

The contagious impact of playing violent video games on aggression: Longitudinal evidence

Meta-analyses have shown that violent video game play increases aggression in the player. The present research suggests that violent video game play also affects individuals with whom the player is connected. A longitudinal study (N = 980) asked participants to report on their amount of violent video game play and level of aggression as well as how they perceive their friends and examined the association between the participant's aggression and their friends’ amount of violent video game play. As hypothesized, friends’ amount of violent video game play at Time 1 was associated with the participant's aggression at Time 2 even when controlling for the impact of the participant's aggression at Time 1. Mediation analyses showed that friends’ aggression at Time 1 accounted for the impact of friends’ amount of violent video game play at Time 1 on the participant's aggression at Time 2. These findings suggest that increased aggression in video game players has an impact on the player's social network.     

The longitudinal relationships of interpersonal openness trait,hostility, and hostile attribution bias

While the relationship between personality, hostility, and hostile attribution bias (HAB) has been explored in previous studies, their longitudinal relationship is unclear, and no related study has utilized the indigenous Chinese personality. This research explored the longitudinal relationships of interpersonal openness (IO; an indigenous Chinese personality construct), hostility, and HAB. The 942 valid participants (38.5% male, mean age = 20.83, standard deviation = 1.04) were from six different provinces in China. Measurements were completed on two separate occasions (Times 1 and 2), with a 6-month interval. Results showed that IO has longitudinal effects on hostility, after controlling for the Big Five, and HAB could be longitudinally predicted by IO and hostility as well. Moreover, hostility served as a mediator in the relationship between IO and HAB. These results suggest that IO can affect the development of hostility and HAB, and some indigenous Chinese personality factors may complement Western personality theories.     

Using Dynamic Panel Models to Study Age‐related Differences and Time‐related Changes in Personality

Along with an increasing interest in the plasticity and role of personality across the adult lifespan comes the need for a diverse set of innovative statistical approaches to study it. With this paper, we set out to illustrate some of the possibilities and challenges in modelling age‐related differences and time‐related changes in personality psychology by means of dynamic panel models. To this end, we first distinguish between the study of age‐related differences and time‐related changes and demonstrate how the treatment of age and time as either discrete or continuous variables implies important modelling choices. Second, we present a selection of four example cases that address the topic of age moderation in diverse matters and with different objectives. Based on our cross‐tabulation of age and time as discrete and continuous variables, the first two example cases represent fairly well‐established models (cases A and B), whereas the remaining cases are used to illustrate current developments in the field (cases C and D). We close the paper with some final remarks on current limitation and future research directions. © 2019 European Association of Personality Psychology     

Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios

Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second “opposite” scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them.     

Applying a longitudinal tracer methodology to evaluate complex interventions in complex settings

Long-running multi-faceted intervention studies are particularly problematic in large complex organizations where traditional methods prove too resource intensive and can yield inaccurate and incomplete findings. This paper describes the first use of, longitudinal tracer methodology (LTM), a realist approach to evaluation, to examine the links between multiple complex intervention activities (processes) and their outcomes on a construction megaproject. LTM is especially useful when the researcher has little control over intervention delivery but has evidence drawn from multiple sources to evaluate the intervention activities effects over time. This methodology has rarely been deployed in complex organizational settings and not on a construction megaproject. This paper presents a case study of its use over a period of three years, on 24 construction sites forming London’s Thames Tideway Tunnel (Tideway) megaproject. The study examines the “transformational” power of occupational safety and health (OSH) interventions across the multiple organizations and supply chains in the megaproject. The study shows how the method can be adapted in-flight to accommodate shifting lines of inquiry as the intervention activities progress and change. This feature along with its resource-efficient operation, make it an attractive option where interventions are likely to have differential effects across multiple sites of enactment.