Towards a new approach to predict business performance using machine learning

Financial ratio plays a crucial role in business performance prediction, but the ability of the decision maker to use this method in adjusting management strategy has been extensively ignored. In this paper we attempt to build a fuzzy chance constrained least squares twin support vector machine (FCC-LSTSVM) to predict the business performance through the financial ratios. Specifically, machine learning techniques are utilized to build the models and 796 listed companies in China are selected as the data set. We find that different efficiencies are performed for different models with the same industry and different effectiveness are shown for different predicting time periods with the same method. In addition, the predicting achievements of business performance depend on the types of industries. This paper has extent significance both in theoretical development and managerial practices.     

Conditions for factor (in)determinacy in factor analysis

The subject of factor indeterminacy has a vast history in factor analysis (Guttman, 1955; Lederman, 1938; Wilson, 1928). It has lead to strong differences in opinion (Steiger, 1979). The current paper gives necessary and sufficient conditions for observability of factors in terms of the parameter matrices and a finite number of variables. Five conditions are given which rigorously define indeterminacy. It is shown that (un)observable factors are (in)determinate. Specifically, the indeterminacy proof by Guttman is extended to Heywood cases. The results are illustrated by two examples and implications for indeterminacy are discussed.     

The pitch of “real” and “rhetorical” questions directed by a father to his daughter: A longitudinal case study

A longitudinal study of a father and his daughter examined pitch-variation of “real” and “rhetorical” questions. Although the father asked “real” and “rhetorical” questions from the start of the recordings, he did not distinguish them through differential pitch height until the baby was 15 months old.     

The two roads of passionate goal pursuit: links with appraisal,coping, and academic achievement

Background and Objectives: In this research, we tested the role of cognitive appraisals in explaining why harmonious and obsessive passion dimensions are related to distinct forms of coping and explored if performance was impacted by these appraisal and coping processes. Design: Undergraduate students (N = 489) participated in a longitudinal study and completed three surveys throughout the course of an academic year. Methods: Participants completed assessments of both passion dimensions (Time 1), reported how they were appraising and coping with the mid-year examination period (Time 2), and provided consent to obtain their final grade in Introductory Psychology (Time 3). The hypothesized model was tested using structural equation modeling. Results: Harmonious and obsessive passion dimensions were linked with approach and avoidant coping responses, respectively. Cognitive appraisals, particularly appraisals of challenge and uncontrollability, played an indirect role in these relationships. In addition, both appraisals and coping responses had an indirect effect in the relationship between passion dimensions and final grade. Conclusions: These results identify cognitive appraisal as a reason why passion dimensions are linked with distinct coping tendencies and demonstrate the role of appraisal and coping processes in the journey to passionate goal attainment.     

Predicting positive mental health in internally displaced persons in Indonesia: the roles of economic improvement and exposure to violent conflict

Positive mental health, rather than just the absence of mental illness, is rarely investigated among the internally displaced persons (IDPs) affected by violent conflict in low-income countries. The purpose of this study was to investigate a model that could explain the interrelationship between factors contributing to positive mental health in displaced populations. In a longitudinal study we examine poverty, exposure to traumatic events and the change of material well-being after one year. We collected data in two consecutive years (2005 and 2006) from a community-based sample of IDPs in Ambon, Indonesia, through face-to-face structured interviews with consenting adults. Participants of this study were IDPs lived in Ambon during the violent conflict period. We interviewed 471 IDPs in the first year and reinterviewed 399 (85%) of the same subjects in the second year. The IDPs possessed good sense of coherence and subjective well-being. Our final model, which was generated by the use of structural equation modeling, fits the data well (χ² = 52.51, df = 45, p = .21, CFI = .99, RMSEA = .019). Exposure to violent conflict had a negative impact on IDPs’ mental health initially and better economic conditions improved it (r = ?.30 and .29 respectively). Mental health status one year previously was a strong predictor of future mental health, followed by individual economic growth in the past year (r = .43 and .29 respectively). On a group level the IDPs were resilient and adaptive to survive in adverse living conditions after devastating violent conflict, and the economic improvement contributed to it.     

Coping with type 1 diabetes through emerging adulthood: Longitudinal associations with perceived control and haemoglobin A1c

Objective: This study, which is part of a larger longitudinal study focusing on the biopsychosocial functioning of emerging adults with type 1 diabetes, examined how perceived personal control, coping and HbA_1c relate to one another over time.

Design and main outcome measures: Emerging adults with type 1 diabetes (18–30 years old) participated in a two-wave longitudinal study spanning five years (N = 164 at Time 1). At both times, patients completed questionnaires on perceived control and coping (i.e. diabetes integration, avoidant coping and passive resignation). HbA_1c values were obtained from treating clinicians. We investigated the directionality of effects using cross-lagged path analysis.

Results: Higher HbA_1c values predicted relative decreases in diabetes integration and increases in avoidant coping five years later. Feeling less in control over diabetes predicted the use of passive coping over time. Passive coping predicted a relative decrease in perceived control five years later.

Conclusion: These findings indicate that tackling poor glycaemic control is not only important to avoid medical complications but also to prevent patients from resorting to more avoidant coping strategies. Furthermore, given the longitudinal interplay between perceived control and passive coping, it is important that intervention efforts include both cognitive and behavioural components to be effective.     

社会支持、主动反刍与创伤后应激障碍的关系:来自地震后青少年的追踪研究

以追踪研究的方式,在汶川地震后3.5年、4.5年和5.5年三个时间点,采用社会支持问卷、反刍问卷和创伤后应激障碍量表对汶川地震后245名中学生进行调查。通过建立交叉滞后模型,考察社会支持、主动反刍与创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)的相互作用关系。结果发现,震后3.5年至5.5年间,社会支持与主动反刍之间的跨时间点预测作用不显著,PTSD对社会支持的跨时间点预测作用不显著,但对主动反刍具有显著的跨时间点正向预测作用。震后3.5年至4.5年间,社会支持对PTSD的跨时间点负向预测作用、主动反刍对PTSD的跨时间点正向预测作用均显著,但是这些作用在震后4.5年至5.5年间变得不再显著。