THE PROBLEM OF NATURAL DIVINE CAUSATION AND THE BENEFITS OF PARTIAL CAUSATION: A RESPONSE TO SKOGHOLT

In this article, I defend my previous argument that natural divine causation suffers under the problem of causal overdetermination and that it cannot serve as a line of demarcation between theistic evolution (TE) and intelligent design (ID). I do this in light of Christoffer Skogholt's critique of my article. I argue that Skogholt underestimates the naturalistic ambitions of some current thinkers in TE and fails, therefore, to adequately respond to my main argument. I also outline how partial causation better serves as a model for the relationship between God's providence and evolution.     

Concurrent and predictive validity of self-reported aggressiveness

The subjects (60 boys) were drawn from the sample of a longitudinal study of social development and represented extremely aggressive, anxious, constructive, and submissive behaviour at the age of 8. They were presented with three question series concerning (1) their responses to aggressive attacks; (2) reactions in frustration situations presented in short stories; and (3) their aggressive initiatives. In each series the type of aggressive behaviour, attacker, victim, and other situational factors were systematically varied. In series 2 the type of response, open-ended or forced-choice, was also varied. The results showed that the most valid way of studying boys' self-observations on their aggressive behaviour was to ask if they attack somebody without a specific reason (series 3). This correlated with contemporaneous overt aggression at the age of 8 and predicted aggressiveness and various characteristics of antisocial aggressive development at the ages of 14 and 19. Self-observations on one's physical aggression were more valid for ratings of overt aggressiveness than on verbal aggression. The open-ended or forced-choice type of response did not affect the validity of aggressive responses. Of the categories of nonaggression, ‘conciliatory responses’ had the highest concurrent and predictive validity for constructiveness and other indicators of strong self-control.     

Offensive and defensive aggression in humans: A longitudinal perspective

Offensive and defensive aggression were distinguished on the basis of associated events. Behavior delivering noxious stimuli was defined as defensive when it was a response a threatening situation and as offensive when it was an unprovoked act. The existence of a general aggression factor was implied by the finding that initiators of aggression also readily defend themselves if attacked. The use of a peer nomination and teacher rating variable for offensive aggression, “Attacks without reason, teases others, naughty things”; and another for defensive aggression, “Defends him/herself if teased, but does not tease or attack others without reason,” yielded differential results. Offensive aggression at age 14 was significantly predicted by aggressive behavior age 8, while defensive aggression was not. Intercorrelations of rating variables at 14 showed that offensive aggression was related to weak self-control and defensive aggression to strong self-control. Only offensive aggression at age 14 predicted criminality at age 20. The results indicate a diversity of motivations for aggressive behaviors, as suggested by observations on animal behavior.     

追踪研究中的内生性问题：来源与应对

相对于横断研究,追踪研究中更有可能同时存在多种内生性问题来源。双变量追踪研究在心理学因果分析中发挥了重要的作用,然而其中的内生性问题却未得到应有的关注,这可能会影响推论的准确性。追踪研究中内生性问题的来源视乎模型而定,主要包括遗漏变量、变量选择和样本选择、解释变量的测量误差、动态面板和变量之间的相互关系。本文以代表性追踪模型CLPM为例,展示了内生性问题的影响,讨论了在原模型中运用工具变量来建模以应对内生性问题的可行性,目的是使心理学研究者能够关注追踪研究中的内生性问题,更好地运用追踪模型进行因果分析。     

A comparison of sources of baseline data for treatments of problem behavior following a functional analysis

It is common practice in research on the treatment of problem behavior to compare levels of targeted behaviors during treatment to levels when treatment is not in place. Some researchers use data collected as part of a multielement functional analysis as the initial baseline, whereas others collect new baseline data following completion of the functional analysis. We evaluated whether the source of baseline data influences the reliability and efficiency of decision-making. Results suggest that similar decisions are made in regard to treatment efficacy using the different sources of baseline data, but using data from a multielement functional analysis as baseline may save time. Interrater agreement was adequate, but lower for some graphs than has been observed in past studies. Several potential explanations for this discrepancy are discussed.     

Evaluation of publication bias in response interruption and redirection: A meta-analysis

Publication bias is the disproportionate representation of studies with large effects and statistically significant findings in the published research literature. If publication bias occurs in single-case research design studies on applied behavior-analytic (ABA) interventions, it can result in inflated estimates of ABA intervention effects. We conducted an empirical evaluation of publication bias on an evidence-based ABA intervention for children diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder, response interruption and redirection (RIRD). We determined effect size estimates for published and unpublished studies using 3 metrics, percentage of nonoverlapping data (PND), Hedges' g, and log response ratios (LRR). Omnibus effect size estimates across all 3 metrics were positive, supporting that RIRD is an effective treatment for reducing problem behavior maintained by nonsocial consequences. We observed larger PND for published compared to unpublished studies, small and nonsignificant differences in LRR for published compared to unpublished studies, and significant differences in Hedges' g for published compared to unpublished studies, with published studies showing slightly larger effect. We found little, if any, difference in methodological quality between published and unpublished studies. While RIRD appears to be an effective intervention for challenging behavior maintained by nonsocial consequences, our results reflect some degree of publication bias present in the RIRD research literature.