Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic

We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Elaboration et validation de tests de jugement situationnel comme outil de sélection professionnelle : guide méthodologique

Current views in personnel selection recognize the necessity for situational judgements tests (SJT) which are closed to the real work context of companies. The SJTs have also become a popular selection tool across Europe. SJTs are attractive because they show good validity, positive applicants reactions and can be cost effective to test large group of applicants at once. The aim of this paper is to describe a structured methodology for the elaboration of such test. Each stage is illustrated by examples and psychometrics validation issues are discussed.     

基于作答时间数据的改变点分析在检测加速作答中的探索——已知和未知项目参数

相对于传统的离散作答数据, 作答时间作为连续数据, 可以提供更多信息。改变点分析(change point analysis)技术在心理和教育领域是一个比较新的技术。本文一方面对改变点分析在心理测量领域的应用进行了一个综合的总结和分析; 另一方面, 将基于作答数据的两种改变点分析统计量推广到作答时间数据, 将改变点分析技术应用到测验异常作答模式：加速作答speededness的检测上。采用两种检验方法：似然比检验和Wald检验, 分别在已知和未知项目参数的条件下, 实现异常作答模式的检测。结果表明, 所采用的方法对于加速作答行为的检测具有很高的检验力, 同时能够很好的控制I类错误率。实证数据分析进一步表明本文中所使用的方法具有应用价值。     

新世纪20年国内假设检验及其关联问题的方法学研究

新世纪20年来国内假设检验方法学研究内容可分为如下几类: 零假设显著性检验的不足、p值的使用问题、心理学研究的可重复性问题、效应量、检验力、等效性检验、其他与假设检验关联的研究。零假设显著性检验已经发展成一套组合流程: 为了保证检验力和节省成本, 实验研究需要做先验检验力分析预估样本容量, 但问卷超过160人在传统统计中就没有必要这样做。当拒绝零假设时, 应当结合效应量做出结论。当不拒绝零假设时, 需要报告后验检验力; 如果效应量中或大而检验力不够高, 则可增加被试再行分析, 但这一过程应主动披露, 报告最后的实际p值并对可能犯的第一类错误率做出评估。     

If I imagine it,then it happened: The Implicit Truth Value of imaginary representations

Imagination sometimes leads people to behave, feel, and think as though imagined events were real even when they know they were not. In this paper, we suggest that some understanding of these phenomena can be achieved by differentiating between Implicit Truth Value (ITV), a spontaneous truth evaluation, and Explicit Truth Value (ETV), a self-reported truth judgment. In three experiments, we measure ITV using the autobiographical Implicit Association Test (Sartori, Agosta, Zogmaister, Ferrara, & Castiello, 2008), which has been used to assess which of two autobiographical events is true. Our findings demonstrate that imagining an event, like experiencing an event, increases its ITV, even when people explicitly acknowledge the imagined event as false (Experiments 1a and 1b). Furthermore, we show that imagined representations generated from a first-person perspective have higher ITV than imagined representations generated from a third-person perspective (Experiment 2). Our findings suggest that implicit and explicit measures of truth differ in their sensitivity to properties underlying truth judgment. We discuss the contribution of characterizing events according to both ITV and ETV to the understanding of various psychological phenomena, such as lying and self-deception.     

SON-R6-40非言语智力测验在中国的适用性

SON-R 6-40非言语智力测验是以非文字形式测量个体推理与空间能力的智力评估工具.研究旨在考查SON-R6-40在中国的适用性.根据全国人口分布,在中国六大行政区6至40岁年龄人群中施测了1721人,通过与荷兰/德国混合样本比较,分析该测验的跨文化等值水平.结果表明：（1）测验信度与结构跨样本一致,说明该测验在两种文化下结构等值;（2）多样本验证性因素分析证明了该测验的测量单位等值性.因此,SON-R 6-40适合在中国推广使用以及用于智力的跨文化比较研究.     

ITC Guidelines on Quality Control in Scoring,Test Analysis,and Reporting of Test Scores

The Quality Control (QC) Guidelines are intended to increase the efficiency, precision, and accuracy of the scoring, analysis, and reporting process of testing. The QC Guidelines focus on large-scale testing operations where multiple forms of tests are created for use on set dates. However, they may also be used for a wide variety of other testing situations and assessment techniques and for almost any situation in which assessment occurs. The QC Guidelines are applicable in any form of test administration, including paper and pencil tests and the ever-increasing computerized assessments via the Internet or offline.     

Is the Male Advantage in Mental-Rotation Performance Task Independent? On the Usability of Chronometric Tests and Paper-and-Pencil Tests in Children

This article presents a reanalysis of the data of 862 second and fourth graders collected in two previous studies, focusing on the influence of method (psychometric vs. chronometric) and stimulus type on the gender difference in mental-rotation accuracy. The children had to solve mental-rotation tasks with animal pictures, letters, or cube figures, either in a chronometric condition (computerized) or in a psychometric condition (paper-and-pencil). Results show a slight male advantage in mental-rotation accuracy, which is neither influenced by method nor by stimulus type. However, mental-rotation accuracy differed between the stimulus types, with the highest accuracy in animal pictures and the lowest accuracy in cube figures, and between age groups, with better performance in fourth graders than in second graders in both conditions. Results show that psychometric and chronometric mental-rotation tests with all the stimulus types are more or less similarly usable with children of that age.     

Exploring Differential Subgroup Functioning on SAT Writing Items: What Happens When English Is Not a Test Taker's Best Language?

The purpose of this study is to explore patterns in model-data fit related to subgroups of test takers from a large-scale writing assessment. Using data from the SAT, a calibration group was randomly selected to represent test takers who reported that English was their best language from the total population of test takers (N = 322,011). A reference scale for the items was constructed based on EBL responses. Response behaviors of test takers who reported that English was not their best language (ENBL) were examined in relationship to this reference scale. This study illustrates the use of differential subgroup analyses to identify patterns related to person misfit within subgroups, as well as subsets of items, that may affect the validity of writing scores for ENBL test takers. The methodology described here offers an approach that can be used to explore, understand, and improve the validity of scores obtained from ENBL test takers in large-scale writing assessments.