题库优化设计的回顾与展望

题库优化设计是指在题库建立前确定一份最佳的题库开发蓝图,使题库更好地服务于组卷。目前,在线性计算机化测验的情景下,题库优化设计方法主要包括：线性规划法、成本函数法;在计算机适应性测验（CAT）情境下,题库设计方法主要包括：影子测验设计法、p-优化设计法。文中首先介绍这些优化设计法的基本思路、具体步骤与相关的应用研究,然后评述当前题库设计研究的局限,指出未来的可能研究方向。     

Testing for Deterministic Salesperson Attributes in Mature Markets

Abstract

Individual, buying center members seek to acquire a bundle of attributes that satisfy the needs of their organization in a manner similar to that of consumers. For companies in mature industries, it is proposed that sales representative- related attributes may be more important than product- or company-related attributes when customers evaluate alternative suppliers. In fact, these attributes may determine ultimate supplier selection and purchase. Data from an industrial positioning study conducted by a major industrial firm supplying consumable operating supplies supports this contention. Managerial implications are also discussed.     

Making the future memorable: The phenomenology of remembered future events

Although our ability to remember future simulations conveys an adaptive advantage, enabling us to better prepare for upcoming events, the factors influencing the memorability of future simulations are not clear. In this study, participants generated future simulations that combined specific people, places and objects from memory, and for each trial, made a series of phenomenological ratings about the event components and the simulation as a whole. Memory for simulations was later assessed using a cued-recall test. We used multilevel modelling to determine whether the phenomenological qualities of event components (familiarity, emotionality and significance) and simulations (detail, plausibility) were predictive of whether the simulation was successfully encoded and later accessible. Our results demonstrate that person familiarity, detail and plausibility were significant predictors of whether a given future simulation was encoded into memory and later accessible. These findings suggest that scaffolding future simulations with pre-existing episodic memories is the path to a memorable future.     

Constructing the past: An existential-phenomenological analysis

Beginning with a critical overview of more typical therapeutic assumptions regarding linear causality and the fixedness and constancy of the past, this paper argues from a perspective that emphasises 1) the distinction between the past per se and the remembered past; and 2) the fluidity of the remembered past. the author then presents an alternative argument, derived from existential-phenomenological analysis, that the principal function of the remembered past is to both reflect and validate the currently maintained and future-directed self-construct. Some initial implications for psychotherapy and counselling raised by this hypothesis are discussed both generally and via a brief case vignette.     

心理治疗的会谈间体验对治疗效果的影响——来自追踪研究的证据

采用多层线性分析方法,在短程心理咨询的连续会谈中检验来访者的会谈间体验对咨询效果的影响。以36名个案、151次会谈为样本,结果发现,来访者的症状总体呈线性下降趋势;不同来访者症状变化的速率存在个体差异,会谈间体验的情绪因子能解释症状变化速率总变异的40.79%。结论：在短程心理咨询中,来访者想起咨询会谈或/和咨询师时的情绪体验能显著预测咨询效果。     

Analyzing temporal patterns of infant sleep and negative affective behavior: a comparison between different statistical models

Objective

Variability in infant sleep and negative affective behavior (NAB) is a developmental phenomenon that has long been of interest to researchers and clinicians. However, analyses and delineation of such temporal patterns were often limited to basic statistical approaches, which may prevent adequate identification of meaningful variation within these patterns. Modern statistical procedures such as additive models may detect specific patterns of temporal variation in infant behavior more effectively.

Method

Hundred and twenty-one mothers were asked to record different behaviors of their 4–44 weeks old healthy infants by diaries for three days consecutively. Circadian patterns as well as individual trajectories and day-to-day variability of infant sleep and NAB were modeled with generalized linear models (GLMs) including a linear and quadratic polynomial for time, a GLM with a polynomial of the 8th order, a GLM with a harmonic function, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) with a polynomial of the 8th order, a generalized additive model, and a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM).

Results

The semi-parametric model GAMM was found to fit the data of infant sleep better than any other parametric model used. GLMM with a polynomial of the 8th order and GAMM modeled temporal patterns of infant NAB equally well, although the GLMM exhibited a slightly better model fit while GAMM was easier to interpret. Besides the well-known evening clustering in infant NAB we found a significant second peak in NAB around midday that was not affected by the constant decline in the amounts of NAB across the 3-day study period.

Conclusion

Using advanced statistical procedures (GAMM and GLMM) even small variations and phenomena in infant behavior can be reliably detected. Future studies investigating variability and temporal patterns in infant variables may benefit from these statistical approaches.     

Friendship Dissolution Within Social Networks Modeled Through Multilevel Event History Analysis

A social network perspective can bring important insight into the processes that shape human behavior. Longitudinal social network data, measuring relations between individuals over time, has become increasingly common—as have the methods available to analyze such data. A friendship duration model utilizing discrete-time multilevel survival analysis with a multiple membership random effect structure is developed and applied here to study the processes leading to undirected friendship dissolution within a larger social network. While the modeling framework is introduced in terms of understanding friendship dissolution, it can be used to understand microlevel dynamics of a social network more generally. These models can be fit with standard generalized linear mixed-model software, after transforming the data to a pair-period data set. An empirical example highlights how the model can be applied to understand the processes leading to friendship dissolution between high school students, and a simulation study is used to test the use of the modeling framework under representative conditions that would be found in social network data. Advantages of the modeling framework are highlighted, and potential limitations and future directions are discussed.     

Neighborhood Predictors of Intimate Partner Violence: A Theory‐Informed Analysis Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling

Due to high prevalence rates and deleterious effects on individuals, families, and communities, intimate partner violence (IPV) is a significant public health problem. Because IPV occurs in the context of communities and neighborhoods, research must examine the broader environment in addition to individual‐level factors to successfully facilitate behavior change. Drawing from the Social Determinants of Health framework and Social Disorganization Theory, neighborhood predictors of IPV were tested using hierarchical linear modeling. Results indicated that concentrated disadvantage and female‐to‐male partner violence were robust predictors of women's IPV victimization. Implications for theory, practice, and policy, and future research are discussed.     

高中生沉思与应激性生活事件对抑郁症状的影响:1年追踪研究

探讨沉思及沉思亚型与应激性生活事件的交互作用对抑郁症状的影响。采用流调中心用抑郁量表、青少年生活事件问卷和沉思反应量表等自评量表对527名高中生的抑郁症状、应激性生活事件和沉思进行评估,随后每3个月测评一次抑郁症状和应激性生活事件的发生情况,追踪调查1年,用多层线性模型分析数据。结果表明:沉思和强迫性冥思对抑郁症状的主效应显著,而反思不显著;沉思、强迫性冥思和反思与生活事件对抑郁症状的交互作用均不显著。结论:应激性生活事件和强迫性冥思会加重抑郁症状,而反思没有加重抑郁症状;沉思及亚型均不会改变应激性生活事件对抑郁症状的影响程度。     

试论骨科辐射效应的线性与非线性关系

放射界对于辐射效应一直沿用线性无阈理论,但近年来,低剂量辐射效应却让其表现出非线性特征。而且对于骨折以及骨科其他疾病来说不同剂量辐射所产生的效应是不同的,即其在骨科中也存在线性与非线性的对立统一,只有认清这两者的辩证关系,才能抓住其本质,最终产生深远的意义和临床应用。