The role of probability of success estimates in the sunk cost effect

The sunk cost effect is manifested in a tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment has been made. Arkes and Blumer (1985) showed that a sunk cost increases one's estimated probability that the endeavor will succeed [p(s)]. Is this p(s) increase a cause of the sunk cost effect, a consequence of the effect, or both? In Experiment 1 participants read a scenario in which a sunk cost was or was not present. Half of each group read what the precise p(s) of the project would be, thereby discouraging p(s) inflation. Nevertheless these participants manifested the sunk cost effect, suggesting p(s) inflation is not necessary for the effect to occur. In Experiment 2 participants gave p(s) estimates before or after the investment decision. The latter group manifested higher p(s), suggesting that the inflated estimate is a consequence of the decision to invest. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effectiveness of an attachment-based intervention for the assessment of parenting capacities in maltreating families: A randomized controlled trial

Even though Parenting Capacity Assessments (PCAs) are essential for child protection services to support placement decisions for maltreating families, presently no evidence-based PCA protocols are available. In this randomized controlled trial, we tested the quality of an attachment-based PCA protocol based on Video-feedback Intervention to promote Positive Parenting and Sensitive Discipline (VIPP-SD). We recruited 56 parent-child dyads (M_age children = 3.48 years) in Dutch family residential clinics that conduct PCAs to support placement decisions. After pretest, families were randomized to receive the Regular Assessment Procedure (RAP) (n = 28), or an additional assessment based on VIPP-SD (n = 28). An immediate post-test and a 10-month follow-up were conducted. Multilevel models showed that therapists felt equally confident about their recommendations regarding child placement for both groups and that they equally often modified their initial placement recommendations. Moreover, children in the VIPP-SD group did not show fewer behavior problems and did not experience recurring child maltreatment less often than children in the RAP group. Thus, we found no evidence that PCAs incorporating the VIPP-SD protocol outperformed PCAs as usual. We discuss possible explanations why in the current study VIPP-SD did not seem to add to the quality of the RAP.     

When “decoy effect” meets gender bias: The role of choice set composition in hiring decisions

A large body of research has found evidence that hiring decisions are frequently subject to strong gender bias and has explored factors that help to predict and prevent such a bias from occurring. In this paper, we explore a novel factor that has received only little attention: the composition of the choice set. Drawing on prior research on the attraction effect of decoys in consumer choice and personnel decisions, we posit that when decision makers need to decide whether to hire a male or a female applicant for a stereotypically male position, the presence of a third applicant whose profile is asymmetrically dominated by one of the two applicants can in many circumstances strongly increase the odds that the male applicant will be selected, but will not be beneficial for the female applicant. We test our hypotheses in five experimental studies with different designs, experimental settings, and participant pools—including managers with professional experience in hiring decisions. Our results provide robust evidence demonstrating the strong effects of choice set composition on the emergence of gender bias. In addition, we found that the presence of asymmetrically dominated applicants makes decision makers more confident in their biased decisions and more likely to implement them immediately without searching for further information. Finally, our results also provide some initial evidence that our results for stereotypically male positions will be reversed when hiring decisions are made for stereotypically female positions where the presence of decoys instead gives an advantage to female over male applicants.     

Opinion on directive 98/44/EC on the legal protection of biotechnical inventions,and its implementation in Sweden

The following statement is the formal opinion by the Swedish National Council on Medical Ethics concerning the implementation of Directive 98/44/EC of the European Parliament concerning legal protection of biotechnical inventions, and the implications and implementation of this Directive in Sweden.     

Bailing and jailing the fast and frugal way

Legal decisions such as the decision to bail upon adjourning a case have major consequences for both defendants and society. In the English system, magistrates, most of whom are lay people, are afforded considerable discretion and must work under constraints such as time pressure. Judgment analysis of the bail decision making policies of 81 magistrates from 44 courts throughout England and Wales revealed intra‐ and inter‐magistrate inconsistency in bail decisions, discrepancies between stated and elicited cue use, and high levels of post‐decisional confidence. Furthermore, magistrates' policies were better described and predicted by a fast and frugal model characterized by noncompensatory cue use, than by either of two compensatory integration models. The fast and frugal model portrays a picture of bail decision making that conflicts with the ideal practice as defined by the due process model of justice. We discuss the implications of these findings for judgment and decision making research and criminal justice policy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

论医患关系的法律属性

医事法（又称卫生法）究竟是属于民法的调整范畴还是属于行政法的范畴,国内学术界争议很大。从医学科学与医疗行为的本质特征看,医患关系并不具备民事法律关系所必须具备的主体平等、双方自愿及等价有偿互惠互利三大特征中的任何一个特征。同时也不存在行政主体与行政相对人的关系。为此,首次提出医事法既不调整横向的民事法律关系,也不调整纵向的行政法律关系,而是调整斜向的医事法律关系的一门独立的法律体系的理论。     

Attribute Framing and Goal Framing Effects in Health Decisions

Levin, Schneider, and Gaeth (LSG, 1998) have distinguished among three types of framing—risky choice, attribute, and goal framing—to reconcile conflicting findings in the literature. In the research reported here, we focus on attribute and goal framing. LSG propose that positive frames should be more effective than negative frames in the context of attribute framing, and negative frames should be more effective than positive frames in the context of goal framing. We test this framework by manipulating frame valence (positive vs negative) and frame type (attribute vs goal) in a unified context with common procedures. We also argue that the nature of effects in a goal-framing context may depend on the extent to which the research topic has “intrinsic self-relevance” to the population. In the context of medical decision making, we operationalize low intrinsic self-relevance by using student subjects and high intrinsic self-relevance by using patients. As expected, we find complete support for the LSG framework under low intrinsic self-relevance and modified support for the LSG framework under high intrinsic self-relevance. Overall, our research appears to confirm and extend the LSG framework.     

坚持科学发展观 促进中医药学现代化

中西医各有短长都不要无限夸大自身的优势。中西医互补整合是现代医学发展的潮流。学术争论不要政治化,科技管理要法制化,学者必须从浮华世态中醒悟过来,重建学者应有的人格和道德,纯洁科学的神圣殿堂。坚持科学发展观,中医药学才有长足的进步。     

Gender differences in the family-relatedness of relocation decisions

Using a dyadic study design, the present study draws on research into the family-relatedness of work decisions to examine the impact of the spouse's characteristics on an employee's willingness to engage in job-related relocation. With a sample of 1234 employees, the results show that spousal willingness to relocate mediates (a) the negative effect of the spouse's community ties and (b) the positive effect of the spouse's job alternatives on an employee's willingness to relocate. The indirect effect of the spouse's job alternatives was stronger among female than among male employees. To validate employees' perceptions, this study uses matched data from a subsample of 207 employees and their spouses to test a multi-source model, which revealed several notable inconsistencies. Our exploration of discrepancies between employee and spousal ratings helps explain these differences between single-source and multi-source models. Overall, findings suggest that employees consider various spousal factors in their career decision-making, and the family-relatedness of relocation decisions is particularly strong among female employees.     

Perceptual grouping does not affect multi-attribute decision making if no processing costs are involved

Adaptive strategy selection implies that a decision strategy is chosen based on its fit to the task and situation. However, other aspects, such as the way information is presented, can determine information search behavior; especially when the application of certain strategies over others is facilitated. But are such display effects on multi-attribute decisions also at work when the manipulation does not entail differential costs for different decision strategies? Three Mouselab experiments with hidden information and one eye tracking experiment with an open information board revealed that decision behavior is unaffected by purely perceptual manipulations of the display based on Gestalt principles; that is, based on manipulations that induce no noteworthy processing costs for different information search patterns. We discuss our results in the context of previous findings on display effects; specifically, how the combination of these findings and our results reveal the crucial role of differential processing costs for different strategies for the emergence of display effects. This finding describes a boundary condition of the commonly acknowledged influence of information displays and is in line with the ideas of adaptive strategy selection and cost–benefit tradeoffs.